The John Smith’s Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 6th April. There is a lot of hype - Channel four seem in constant orgasm , you need plenty of luck to win it but there are plenty of key trends that can help to narrow the field down. and plenty of fences poor jumpers and poor jocks to make the most amazing results - the Favs have a much better record than a game of chance so you have to take note of the market - its not a pin jobby
The ground is key and given as good to soft good in places - have set my analyzer to good ground -- its gonna dry out more and more as the day goes on!
The ground is key and given as good to soft good in places - have set my analyzer to good ground -- its gonna dry out more and more as the day goes on!
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 16/1 or below.
There have been 3 big shocks in the past 6 years, two 33/1 winners in 2007 & last year and a 100/1 winner in 2009.
Favourites (3-5-19) have gained 3 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50.
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-4
7yo: 0-0-25
8yo: 0-6-61
9yo: 3-8-108
10yo: 5-7-94
11yo: 1-9-70
12yo: 1-0-28
13yo+: 0-0-9
Every winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12
8 of 10 winners have been aged 9 or 10 (8-15-202)
In the past 8 years all 32 places were filled by horses aged 8 to 11
The only horse aged older than 11 to win this since 2003 was Amberleigh House who was placed in previous year’s race and had finished 1st or 2nd in previous 3 Becher Chases.
No horse aged below 8 or above 12 has made the frame in the past 10 years (0-0-38)
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-11 or more: 7-16-179
Horses carrying 10-10 or less: 3-14-220
In recent years, with weights being more closely bunched, higher weights have done better.
Past 5 years:
Horses carrying 10-11 or more: 4-11-106
Horses carrying 10-10 or less: 1-4-94
10 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of at least 10-5 on publication of National weights. Last 3 winners were allotted 11-5, 11-0, 11-6.
9 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight
Top Weight: 0FP290UF3F (0-2-10)
In recent years the trend has swung towards higher rated runners.In last 5 years
Horses rated 144 or higher: 4-12-117
Horses rated 143 or lower: 1-3-83
Breeding
Irish bred: 8-20-229
French bred: 2-4-98
British bred: 0-6-66
Other: 0-0-6
Mon Mome became the first French bred since 1909 to win the Grand National when landing the race in 2009 and Neptune Collonges followed up the feat.
Irish bred horses have the best record having won 8 of the last 10 and filled in 28 of 40 places (70%) from approximately 57.4% of the runners.
Our Vic has sired 20 National runners in 5 runnings in past 10 years, with a record of 2-4-20. He has sired one of the first 3 home in last 5 renewals.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had their last run since National weights were announced
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions won class 2 chase worth 30K+)
10 of 10 had won a chase worth 29K+
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since Sept 1
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases
8 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases (exceptions had won 7 & 11)
7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 12 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 1 to 3 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners were 3rd or 4th season chasers
The only second season chaser to have won this in past 10 years was Numbersixvalverde, who won the Thyestes and Irish Grand National as a novice.
10 of 10 winners posted career high RPR in a chase over 3M+
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 146+ in last 2 chase starts
5 of 10 winners (last 3) had posted an RPR of 148+ on each of last 2 chase starts
8 of 10 winners (all 4 Irish-trained winners) had a run over hurdles in January, February or March
they are - Sunny Hill Boy -- On His Own -- Forpaddydeplasterer-- Always Waining - Across the Bay
Seabass Chicago Grey -BecauseIcouldntsee - Quel Esprit - dont ignore this "new trends in the national (it applies across many nationals)
they are - Sunny Hill Boy -- On His Own -- Forpaddydeplasterer-- Always Waining - Across the Bay
Seabass Chicago Grey -BecauseIcouldntsee - Quel Esprit - dont ignore this "new trends in the national (it applies across many nationals)
6 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (4 in GN, 2 in Topham & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 1 exception won previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception did race the previous season
Other Races
Previous season's John Smith's H'cap Chase winner (Saint Are): 71 (1-0-2)
Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Sunnyhillboy): F671F (1-0-5)
Bobbyjo Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): U1PUU6 (1-0-6)
2 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 72
Racing Tactics Valuable for In Running Betfair
5 of 10 winners raced prominently
2 of 10 winners raced in mid-division
3 of 10 winners were held up
Sunny Hill Boy -- Could be anything this horse we know he stays nearly perfect run Grand national beaten by a nose up another 13lbs for that run though you cant help but think Mccoy would be on this one
On His Own -- winning his last race over hdles off a mark of 146 he ran out a decisive winner. He was never far from the pace and although he didn´t really pick up when his rider first asked him to before the straight, he kept pulling out plenty and was very professional in his attitude. and is off 148 today - the highest he has ever been needs a career best to win this - but that is not impossible has won on this ground and has top trainer jockey 15lbs more than his best jumps mark but that run over hdles for the 9yr old carrying 11-00 makes him a very creditable profile animal was travelling well when fell at beechers last year going off at 14/1
Always Waining - what a yummy old horse this one is top %this class and a true Aintree type was simply given a 40/1 shot chance in its hdles run at Chepstow and if there is going to be a 12/1 winner on his favvy track favvy ground and Obrien in the saddle this is going to be the one
Across the Bay - ticks a lot of boxes 2nd season chaser with course form 3m3f has run to this mark. Made all last time in a hdle race worth 21grand and ran a good second to a mark of 134 over hdles around here on good ground is bred from Bobs Return had a wind operation before his last run made all and kept on
Seabass has 1lb in hand for its best win and a creditable run over hdles behind Rock Critic makes this one a strong contender and was keeping on so well under townsend last time - its not just sentiment that this is current favvy
Chicago Grey - was 20/1 shot for this last year and was going well when brought down has won on good ground in the cheltenham 4miler. is about 6lbs well in on its run at Navan
BecauseIcouldntsee - trainer is 50% for his two runs at Aintree thats about all I can say about it on the positive side
Quel Esprit is a very strong each way fancy for me has the complete profile for a national horse and is my main fancy for the irish - its price of 50/1 currently is way too big - The one horse that had some scope to be a proper Grade 1 horse over fences he jumps really well and able to produce a gear at the end of 3miles he does tend to idle that's for sure and I believe this horse is a true Aintree type a good stayer and in the form of its life
so that's the profile horses - I must add that I will be also taking a punt on a horse that has conditions all in its favour today but is maybe too young and inexperienced and thats the 7yr old Saint Ar (Fr) who simply trounced a field round here and is best effort over fences also came at this track when splitting Champion Court and Astracad its an 80/1 chance but horses for courses says this will be no forlorn bet today
Good luck in your choice may they run well - hope you enjoy the race
Bob
Sunny Hill Boy -- Could be anything this horse we know he stays nearly perfect run Grand national beaten by a nose up another 13lbs for that run though you cant help but think Mccoy would be on this one
On His Own -- winning his last race over hdles off a mark of 146 he ran out a decisive winner. He was never far from the pace and although he didn´t really pick up when his rider first asked him to before the straight, he kept pulling out plenty and was very professional in his attitude. and is off 148 today - the highest he has ever been needs a career best to win this - but that is not impossible has won on this ground and has top trainer jockey 15lbs more than his best jumps mark but that run over hdles for the 9yr old carrying 11-00 makes him a very creditable profile animal was travelling well when fell at beechers last year going off at 14/1
Always Waining - what a yummy old horse this one is top %this class and a true Aintree type was simply given a 40/1 shot chance in its hdles run at Chepstow and if there is going to be a 12/1 winner on his favvy track favvy ground and Obrien in the saddle this is going to be the one
Across the Bay - ticks a lot of boxes 2nd season chaser with course form 3m3f has run to this mark. Made all last time in a hdle race worth 21grand and ran a good second to a mark of 134 over hdles around here on good ground is bred from Bobs Return had a wind operation before his last run made all and kept on
Seabass has 1lb in hand for its best win and a creditable run over hdles behind Rock Critic makes this one a strong contender and was keeping on so well under townsend last time - its not just sentiment that this is current favvy
Chicago Grey - was 20/1 shot for this last year and was going well when brought down has won on good ground in the cheltenham 4miler. is about 6lbs well in on its run at Navan
BecauseIcouldntsee - trainer is 50% for his two runs at Aintree thats about all I can say about it on the positive side
Quel Esprit is a very strong each way fancy for me has the complete profile for a national horse and is my main fancy for the irish - its price of 50/1 currently is way too big - The one horse that had some scope to be a proper Grade 1 horse over fences he jumps really well and able to produce a gear at the end of 3miles he does tend to idle that's for sure and I believe this horse is a true Aintree type a good stayer and in the form of its life
so that's the profile horses - I must add that I will be also taking a punt on a horse that has conditions all in its favour today but is maybe too young and inexperienced and thats the 7yr old Saint Ar (Fr) who simply trounced a field round here and is best effort over fences also came at this track when splitting Champion Court and Astracad its an 80/1 chance but horses for courses says this will be no forlorn bet today
Good luck in your choice may they run well - hope you enjoy the race
Bob
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