The Coral Scottish Grand National 2013

The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr today at 3.50  It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. The Aintree Grand National winner, Auroras Encore, who was also runner-up in this last year, may try to do the Aintree-Scottish National double, a feat only ever accomplished by the legendary Red Rum in 1974.

 the ground is drying out and is given as g/soft good in places and could be good all round by race time.

trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-2-9

7yo: 0-8-37

8yo: 3-5-60

9yo: 2-5-49

10yo: 3-5-42

11yo+: 2-5-46

Last 10 renewals have gone to horses aged 8 to 11, though they represented over three quarters of the total runners.

In 2009 Hello Bud (aged 11) became the first horse aged over 10 to win the race since 1996. Merigo followed up that feat when winning the race for a second time last year, also at age 11. Both 11yo winners won their previous start, in a handicap chase over 3M+, posting an RPR of 140 in the process.

Breeding

Irish Bred: 5-18-131

French Bred: 3-7-62

British Bred: 2-4-41

American Bred: 0-1-6

Other: 0-0-3

No very strong trends on breeding, though French breds have won 3 of last 5.

8 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, though they represented 64.6% of total runners.

The only 2 winners to carry more than 10-6 to victory were both Irish bred chasers aged 10+ who had posted a career high RPR when winning their previous start.

Top Weight: 51P0P2PP6P (1-1-10)

Both top weights to make the frame had previously finished in first 5 in the race.

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-12-101

Horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins & 1 place from 6 runners, the other 3 all fell or unseated.

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower

The 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out, and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start

.n the last 10 years 22 horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, finishing 5PP95P4PPP000PU695P00P (0-1-22)

Since 2000 2 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, on both those occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals, like this year.

In recent years those horses that have gone from the front have done best in this race and 4 of the last 6 winners led from before halfway.

Price

No strong trends on prices. 7 of 10 winners were priced between 15/2 and 18/1 though there have been a few big shocks with a 66/1 winner in 2008 and 33/1 in 2006.

Favourite (0-4-13) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 8 to 10 (or an 11yo that won last time, posting an RPR of 140+)
• Carrying 10-6 or less
• Officially rated 143 or lower
• Respect any horse carrying a penalty
• Run 3 to 6 times this season
• Finished in the first 6 last time & posted RPR of 140+
• Won over 3M+
• Posted career high RPR of 137+ in a chase over 3M 4F+
• Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher (or won a graded chase at this meeting)
• Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)
• Run in at least 10 chases (or ran in novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
• Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)
• Had first career start in a bumper or hurdles race
• Bypassed 2013 Aintree Grand National
• Finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup

 There are a few to like in this that fit the profile - Rebecca's Choice  had the ground against him in the Midlands national and will go better on today's good ground is still 5lbs well in on my figures has the right weight staying capabilities and front runs. 

 The stats are against Auroras Encore  but is well in on last years second and has its ground  fits the profile well and as a front runner is a def back to lay in my book 

Problema Tic (fr) does love this track  and for a Fr horse likes the ground jumps well and at 7 will be ignored by many but if it goes off in the front few will be worthy of keeping your eye on 

Post update 13.29 
Monsieur Cadou  sired by the french bred sire of big Bucks has a couple of pounds to find on its last run but has the potential at 8 to make a big run today really has the profile to win today if the ground has a bit of juice in it  have just seen the racing post reporter saying there is more cut in the ground than thought this morning!