Ebor Handicap 24th August 2013

The Betfred Ebor Handicap takes placed on the today Saturday 24th August  The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged and as a result the Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury. I focus on the last 10 running's of the Ebor at York.   past 10 running's (2002-2012):

Overnight rain has changed the ground to soft and that puts grit into the gear box

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-6-9

4yo: 2-13-78

5yo: 6-7-63

6yo+: 2-2-33

7yo+: 0-2-16

3 year olds have a fine record since 2000, winning it in 2000 and 2001 and seeing 6 of their 9 representatives in past 10 years making the places.

5 year olds have won 6 of the last 10 running's from approximately 31.67% of the runners.In the last 30 years, there have only been 2 winners aged older than 5.

You have to go back to 1979 and the great Sea Pigeon for last winner aged 7+.

 Last year Willing Foe won the Ebor having run so well at Ascot last run 14 days before (7/2 fav) - Dettori rode in from the 16 box and this 5 yr old carrying 9-02 was third top improver in the field (had 3lbs in hand on its best handicap mark) having never tried this distance before  and won at 12/1 (number Theory 2l behind carrying 8-13 .

Weights

In past 3 years, all 3 winners and 11 of 12 horses to make places carried 8-10 to 9-2.

Only 4 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory, all 3 posted an RPR of 105+ on their last start, 2 were running under a penalty for winning a race at Glorious Goodwood.

Horses carrying a penalty: 3-4-23

Claimers (2-1-15) have ridden 2 of the last 4 winners of the Ebor.

Top weight: P80900405866 (0-1-12) 
 Number Theory holds that today and though decent soft ground form the stat is compelling  even though 2lbs well in Was a very creditable run last year. Comes into this race in great form being fourth to Brown Panther at goodwood. last time  and is 2nd rated top improver this race today -- hmmmmm

Official Ratings

Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-8-43

Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-21-132

Horses rated 91 or less: 3-1-24

7 of last 8 winners (last 5) have been officially rated between 94 and 101.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts

8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better on last flat start (2 exceptions won a class 3)

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of last 12 months in their last 2 starts

10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (1 exception placed in listed & other was placed on only run that season)

9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or higher (exception twice placed in listed company)

8 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in 9 or fewer handicaps

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps

9 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 4F+ (exception placed in a listed race over 1M 4F)

Other Races

Record of winners at Glorious Goodwood in the Ebor: 4181316004 (3-3-10)

Previous year's Old Newton Cup winner (Number Theory): 29 (0-1-2)

GL Events Owen Brown Handicap winner (Bishop Roko): 300 (0-1-3)

Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Opinion): 3067 (0-1-4)

Investec Zebra Handicap winner (Sheikhzayedroad): 06 (0-0-2)

Previous season's Melrose Stakes winner (Guarantee): 88 (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 415

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 72

2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in previous November Handicap, finishing 32

2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch H'cap, finishing 00

4 of 10 winners finished in first 4 at Glorious Goodwood last time

3 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot that season

Trainers

David Elsworth (1-1-2), Brian Ellison (1-1-5) & Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-7) have all saddled a winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.- Highland castle 

Jane Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) has  won 1 of past 10 renewals.

 John Holt (0-1-1) saddled Number Theoryast year 

Irish trained runners (2-5-19) have won 3 of the last 11 runnings at York from less than 10% of the total runners. They have done particularly well recently, filling the runners-up spot in 2007, the first 2 home in 2009 and the 1st and 4th in 2010 and the 2nd in 2012.

Draw

Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 8-7-70

Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 1-8-59

Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 1-15-70

8 of 10 winners were drawn in the highest 7 stalls

Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or rear

Price

No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 5 of 10 winners going off 14/1 or shorter and the other 5 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.

Favourites (1-4-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 3 to 5

·         Carrying 8-10 to 9-2

·         Having a claimer on board is a positive  only Hanoverian Baron (8 yr old) has a 5lb claimer 

·         Officially rated 94 to 101

·         Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs

·         Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts

·         Won a race this season (or placed in over 50% of their runs)

·         Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days

·         Had last run at Goodwood, Ascot or Galway

Profile horses  1m6f/ 2miles - Oriental Fox (murdered at ascot last time) -  Highland castle who front run and did the murder on Oriental Fox_ 

·         Horses that won at Glorious Goodwood do well

·         Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)

·         Won at class 3 level or higher

·         Won over 1M 4F+ (or placed in a class 1 race over 1M 4F+)

·         Drawn in highest 7 stalls

·         Hold up horses favored

Well this is a pretty kettle of fish to look at - decent line up and the high drawn horses to the fore in the betting 

I Like the chances of Caravan Rolls On as a decent staying handicapper and ran so well at ascot last time  not bred for this ground and just outside the winning top drawn boxes - at a bigger price is Highland castle better drawn and bred from Halling will not mind the ground soft

 Good luck all

 Bob

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