Nassau Stakes 3rd August 2013 3.15

Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes is a group 1 for fillies & mares, run over 1M 2F, on the final day of Glorious Goodwood, Saturday 3rd August. The Fugue gained her one group 1 win in this race last year and she may return to try to win it again.  

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Wins-Places-Runners)

3yo: 5-6-36

4yo: 3-7-32

5yo: 2-3-9

6yo+: 0-0-3

Not much to go on from the ages of winners. 3yo have won 5 of the last 10 but have represented 45% of the total runners.

4 of 5 winners aged 3 had finished 1st or 2nd in an Irish or British Classic

4 of 5 winners aged 4+ were multiple group 1 winners.

Recent Form

7 of 10 winners had won 1 of last 2 starts (3 exceptions placed in group 1 or 2's on last 2 starts)

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in a group 1)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 105+ last time

8 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won a race that year (exception was 2nd in Middleton on only run that year)

9 of 10 winners had won a group race over 1M to 1M 2F (exception was placed in English & Irish Oaks on last 2 starts)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions placed in a group 1 and other was a dual group 2 winner)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (The Fugue): 211 (2-1-3)

Pretty Polly winner (Ambivalent): 31216 (2-1-5)

Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Just The Judge): 1 (1-0-1)

Epsom Oaks winner (Talent): 33 (0-2-2)

Record of 2nd & 3rd from Epsom Oaks: 51511 (3-0-5)

Princess Elizabeth Stakes winner (Thistle Bird): 537 (0-0-3)

Dahlia Stakes winner (Dank): 476 (0-0-3)

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 223

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Irish Oaks last time, finishing 13

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 1000 Guineas, finishing 31

3 of 10 winners ran in the Pretty Polly, finishing 112

3 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Breeders Cup Filly/Mares Turf, finishing 212

2 of 5 aged 4+ winners ran in the Falmouth last time, finishing 62

2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in previous Prix De L'Opera, finishing 13

2 of 5 winners (last 2) aged 4+ ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 21

Trainers

British-trained: 7-10-65

Irish-trained: 3-3-11

French-trained: 0-3-4

The Cecil Yard (3-3-7) was responsible for Midday winning this 3 times (2009-11) & all 7 of their runners have made the first 3.

Michael Stoute (2-2-9) has won the race 3 times in the past 11 years, though his last winner was back in 2004 and his last 5 representatives have all been unplaced.

Aidan O’Brien (2-1-5) has trained the winner twice in last 6 years, both his winners were 3yos that had won an Irish Classic on previous start.

Ed Dunlop (1-1-2) trained the winner in 2001 & 2006 and had Snow Fairy to finish 2nd in 2011.

John Gosden (1-1-5) trained The Fugue to win this last year. Interestingly he has taken the same route (Rbbersdale)  with today's runner Winsili who ran a superb race to get 4th (The Fuge got 2nd)  

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

Favourites (6-2-10) have a fine record in this race, winning 6 of the last 10 renewals and showing a level stakes profit of 4.80 over past 10 years.

 Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 3 & finished in first 2 in a Classic or

·         Aged 4 or 5 that is a multiple group 1 winner

·         Won 1 of last 2 starts

·         Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a group 1)

·         Posted an RPR of 105+ last time

·         Won a group race over 1M to 1M 2F

·         Group 1 winner (placed at least)

·         Finished in first 3 in Breeders Cup Filly & Mare’s Turf or Prix De L’Opera in 2012

·         Finished in first 3 in an Oaks, Irish 1000, Middleton Stakes or Pretty Polly in 2013

·         Trained by Michael Stoute, Lady Cecil, Aidan O’Brien, Jim Bolger or Ed Dunlop

·         From first 3 in the betting (favourite does well)

So - this is a cracking race and worth the admission money but not really a betting race for big stakes - Was so taken by Michael Stoute's Integral  at Sandown  looked a nice prospect when making a winning debut here at Goodwood maiden back in May (second and fourth horses both won their next starts.) The most impressive aspect to this victory was that she came from last place and produced a smart turn of foot to cut down the leader inside the last. Raised into Group company now and has all the scope in the world, (The very best of her may not be seen until next year or beyond but she can take this on the way)

will be taking a chance with Gosden each way shot at 33/1 Winsili  just to add flavor 

Good luck All

 Bob

result ---1 Winsili 20/1 
2 Thistle Bird 33/1 
3 Hot Snap 5/1