First run in 1883, the John Smith's Northumberland Plate takes place today 30th June at 3.20 and is the highlight of the Newcastle meeting. This class 2 handicap is limited to 20 runners and is run over 2 miles. Lower weights that have proven stamina are favoured.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: The going is Heavy heavy heavy so trends have to be looked at carefully
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 4-10-64
5yo: 0-8-45
6yo: 4-7-41
7yo+: 2-5-36
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-19-111
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-12-77
Older horses have held a slight edge recently, with horses aged 6+ winning 3 of last 4.
Weights
Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-11-64
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-20-124
The last 9 winners carried 8-11 or less
Top weight: 00000000306 (0-1-11)
Penalty: 8403008056 (0-2-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 1-15-77
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-2-17
The last 9 winners were officially rated 85 to 93
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
6 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
4 of 10 winners had their last start in a hurdles race
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice (flat & jumps) that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F+ (exception had won over 1M4F)
8 of 10 winners had gained highest grade flat win at class 2 or 3 (2 exceptions had won a class 4 handicap on flat & won class 1 or 2 hurdle)
8 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Tominator): 086 (0-0-3)
Betfred "The Bonus King" Handicap winner (Gulf Of Naples): 302 (0-2-3)
November Handicap winner (Zuider Zee): 4 (0-1-1)
Queen's Prize Handicap winner (Thimaar): 308 (0-1-3)
Chester Cup winner (Il De Re): 983006 (0-1-6)
Mallard Stakes winner (Old Hundred): 8 (0-0-1)
Piper-Heidsieck "Rare" Handicap winner (Cosimo De Medici): 07 (0-0-2)
Cheap Broadband @ poptelecom.co.uk Handicap winner (Mount Athos): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25
2 of 10 winners ran in Cheap Broadband @ poptelecom.co.uk H’cap, finishing 86
Trainers
George Moore (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places in the past 10 years.
Mick Channon (1-1-2) and Amanda Perrett (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner and placed finisher since 2002.
Reg Hollinstead (1-0-1) and Donald McCain (1-0-2) have trained the last 2 winners.
Alan Swinbank (0-3-4) & Richard Fahey (0-2-7) have both had multiple places in last 10 years.
Robert Mills (0-1-1) and John Queally (0-1-1) have both seen their one runner make the frame.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win & 1 place from just 6 representatives.
Mark Johnston (0-0-10) last won the race in 1994 but since 2000 all 14 of his runners have finished unplaced.
Goldie has his animals in great form for distance races this term and both Icon Dream and Merchant of Dubai
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-16-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-8-48
Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.
On good or softer:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-11-62
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 2-10-71
On good to firm or firm ground:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 0-6-28
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 3-4-27
Racing Style
6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently in first 7 BUT because of the ground don't take this as gospel for todays ground this is the time to start laying off your horse if it has got caught way back! 2 of last 3 winners made all to win, 4 winners who were held up did so on ground softer than good.
Price
Longer prices have dominated this in recent years with 7 of last 8 winners going off 14/1 or bigger, including two 33/1 winners and a 25/1 shot last year.
Favourites (1-3-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Carrying 8-11 or less
· Officially rated 85 to 93
· Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
· Ran in Ascot Stakes or in a handicap hurdle last time
· Ran in last 55 days
· Ran at least twice in 2012
· Won over 1M 6F+
· Won a class 2 or 3 race (but no higher)
· Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer
· Trained by George Moore, Mick Channon or Alan Swinbank
· Priced 14/1 or higher
There is plenty to like about this race today and soft ground sires such as Motivator (Montivado) Montjeau (Montaff) High Chapperal (High Office who was 8th last year ) (lexington Bay) are worthy of a peek as are newcastle swingers over jumps such as Crackentorp
Am Attracted at this stage to Fahey yard High Office currently big price at 33/1 who ran a stormer on unsuitable ground last time at Newmarket traveled well and ran right up to form behind a couple of younger, less-exposed rivals.is still within 3lbs of his winning mark lightly weighted 6yr old off 8-06 and bred for soft ground and is 2lbs better in today
Crackentorp at 7 stays forever and has form on soft ground at distance plus and the darkest horse in the race is French Hollow who is 2lbs out of the handicap and though may find this to quick a turn around since Sunday last will think he has a feather on its back with a very good claimer taking the 5lbs off as well --
good luck hope its not going to be as grueling as Anticipated and they all come back sound
Result - Not quite as open as usual, with the ground ruling out a few. Understandably the pace was quite steady.
ILE DE RE completed the prestigious Chester Cup/Northumberland Plate double in gritty fashion, benefiting from a fine ride by Jim Crowley, who wisely moved him prominent down the back. Although up 8lb for his Chester victory, these conditions weren´t a problem, and with stamina assured, it was no surprise to see him repel all challengers. He´s a smart staying handicapper when conditions are in his favour and he can rank higher yet when returning to hurdles later in the year.
Crackentorp, well beaten in this in 2010, has yet to win beyond 1m4f on the Flat, but he came into the race following a recent win at his beloved York and, having held a prominent position throughout, stuck on really well to record a career best. His trainer is in cracking form at present.
Icon Dream, seventh from the same mark last year, had been off 11 months, but has gone well fresh in the past, and he ran right up to his best on this first start for Jim Goldie.
French Hollow, runner-up over 2m2f at Pontefract six days earlier, did best of those coming from off the pace, running really well considering he was 2lb wrong.
Montaff was 1llb lower than when runner-up in 2011, but he hasn´t been able to match that form since, and the ground was testing enough for him.
High Office was never involved, but did plug on late, just ahead of The Betchworth Kid, who was tired.
There was always a good chance this was going to come too soon for Gulf Of Naples after his huge effort in the Gold Cup. He was never able to get into the race following a slow start and is due to race off 6lb higher in future.
Result - Not quite as open as usual, with the ground ruling out a few. Understandably the pace was quite steady.
ILE DE RE completed the prestigious Chester Cup/Northumberland Plate double in gritty fashion, benefiting from a fine ride by Jim Crowley, who wisely moved him prominent down the back. Although up 8lb for his Chester victory, these conditions weren´t a problem, and with stamina assured, it was no surprise to see him repel all challengers. He´s a smart staying handicapper when conditions are in his favour and he can rank higher yet when returning to hurdles later in the year.
Crackentorp, well beaten in this in 2010, has yet to win beyond 1m4f on the Flat, but he came into the race following a recent win at his beloved York and, having held a prominent position throughout, stuck on really well to record a career best. His trainer is in cracking form at present.
Icon Dream, seventh from the same mark last year, had been off 11 months, but has gone well fresh in the past, and he ran right up to his best on this first start for Jim Goldie.
French Hollow, runner-up over 2m2f at Pontefract six days earlier, did best of those coming from off the pace, running really well considering he was 2lb wrong.
Montaff was 1llb lower than when runner-up in 2011, but he hasn´t been able to match that form since, and the ground was testing enough for him.
High Office was never involved, but did plug on late, just ahead of The Betchworth Kid, who was tired.
There was always a good chance this was going to come too soon for Gulf Of Naples after his huge effort in the Gold Cup. He was never able to get into the race following a slow start and is due to race off 6lb higher in future.
not a great result though the selections ran well enough to say they should still be marked up as improver's for the future and the stats stood up significantly again
