I have taken the opportunity to illustrate how i go about analysing distance races starting off with past winners ----
| YEAR | WINNER | AGE | WGT | SP | TRAINER | JOCKEY | RPR | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | John Forbes | 9 | 9-0 | 9/4F | Brian Ellison | Tom Eaves | 78 | |||||
| 2010 | Lady Eclair | 4 | 9-7 | 5/4F | Mark Johnston | Joe Fanning | 94 | |||||
| 2009 | Markington | 6 | 8-3 | 5/2F | Peter Bowen | William Carson | 72 | |||||
| 2008 | Winged D'Argent | 7 | 9-5 | 6/1 | Bernard Llewellyn | Neil Callan | 85 | |||||
| 2007 | Nero West | 6 | 8-3 | 4/1 | Ian Semple | Paul Fessey | 74 | |||||
| 2006 | Mister Arjay | 6 | 8-6 | 9/2 | Brian Ellison | Tom Eaves | 68 | |||||
| 2005 | Argentum | 4 | 8-6 | 8/1 | Lady Herries | Robert Winston | 65 | |||||
John Forbes winning it last year (we napped it that day)returns for another crack and carries 6lbs less was run at a decent early pace. Things slowed up a bit nearing the final turn and the first two home made their way more towards the middle of the track in the home straight. Sound enough form. had caught the eye at York two runs back and confirmed himself back in top form when winning comfortably on quick ground at Doncaster 11 days earlier. That was in an apprentice handicap and so he was off the same mark and followed up with another ready effort.
This 10-y-o loves it when the mud is flying so this surface will be no bother, and it wouldn´t be that surprising to see him run a big race today but his form has not matched last years coming into the race even with this drop down the handicap if it goes heavy ground however there is a health warning and am reluctant to take the present price and think it will drift - anything less than heavy brings it back into focus though its form does not match that at which it came into the race last year
there are three horses who will appreciate ground going heavy
Boston Blue Bred from Halling has won on soft over hdles 2miles and was 3rd off this mark on soft ground at goodwood 2miles November 2010 Downside trainer jock horse have run round here Last run was excellent and in good nick and 2lbs in on its best winning mark
Bollin Felix has won this track heavy 2miles hdles is a must have over hdles these conditions and has a 7lbs claimer today and well in on its flat form by 9lbs (excluding the claim) can be expected to lead and a very good BTL horse
Pokefulham interesting horse from Goldie who has run this track twice and loves heavy ground is CDG winner - why does Lee not ride it today? Tudhope has the most experience of the riders in the race this track may be the reason its its return to heavy ground means its well enough in and got this mark in my private handicap rating its win here two races ago
A return to form is clearly expected from Boss's Destination judged on the morning money which has forced his odds into 7-2 from 13-2. it has to be Swinbank stable confidence certainly can do the 2miles with ease and performed well on poly track this distance is 67% this distance for 4 runs and is 4lbs in on its best win mark id bred from Dubai Destination and will handle ground well enough though has not been as good on turf and poly and if the ground does go heavy looks a late lay to me on the form book despite the respect I have for the yard when it backs one
IF the going remains soft and IF this was a hdle race ! it would be a one horse event for Rock Relief who loves the track distance and going soft or heavy is 90% success for three runs over hdles here and is a tuff lil nut to crack 9his hdles are iffy to say the least) and all the stats say this is the most likely profile horse for me from out of the handicap has no weight and will think hes running free having carried 11-05 it would be a wonderful win in memeory of Campbell Gillies who rode this one to wins despite its iffy hdles and rode out for Grant - it can swing off the bridle has no weight and the dark one in the race
So that's how I approach a race in the morning - it takes longer to write up than scanning a computer'ised interactive form book and notes - but have enjoyed writing it up and will look forwards to any comment and anyone else on the site giving me an insight to their analysis.
Cheers Bob
result --- They went a sound gallop in the very testing underfoot conditions and just the first three home got seriously involved once in line for home.
POKFULHAM, allowed to set his own pace, was 11lb higher than his all the way success over the C&D in May.He had all but the placed horses beaten off turning for home. Narrowly headed by the runner-up inside the final furlong the photo went his way, but both the first two had a tough race here.
Rock Relief, revived over hurdles since joining this yard, had to race from 9lb out of the handicap. He likes soft ground and looked to have been brought with a winning challenge only to miss out right on the line. He will go up at least 9lb for this.
did well on the race
1 Pokfulham 6/1
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2 Rock Relief 9/2
3 Bollin Felix 5/1
3 Bollin Felix 5/1
NR: Blackmore, La Bacouetteuse (FR)
7 ran Distances: nse, 9l, 35l
TIME 3m 56.48s (slow by 29.48s)
TIME 3m 56.48s (slow by 29.48s)
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: Jim Goldie
Trainer: Jim Goldie
toteswingers 1&2 £4.20, 1&3 £5.10, 2&3 £7.20 WIN £4.70 PL £1.70, £3.50
Ex £28.40
CSF £31.53
TRICAST £143.16
Ex £28.40
CSF £31.53
TRICAST £143.16
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