THIS IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT when your looking at races where the animals have had few runs and head the market or your particular slant on seeing them perform on going different to today's
for example I illustrate the 2.05 handicap at Doncaster
GreyMirage heads the market at time of writing - sired by Oasis Dream who has proven was best on a faster surface than today - yet won a heavy ground race at Sandown over the mile - looks the best horse in the line up - it won all the way unchallenged off a mark of 68 and has gone up 10lbs for this today. in my book has 5lbs to find and is the biggest improver - Botti trained looks formidable when backed.
looking for value elsewhere there are two soft ground sired horses lining up that should be considered and watched for money from their yards ---Chapter Seven and Well Painted are both bred from Excellent Art who was a proven mud lark and as yet have not encountered ground this soft. BUT and this is the but Chapter Seven has won a class 2 at a mile winning a 32k race in the process and has run 7 times so has the experience needed in big fields he won a good handicap was dropped in at the tail of the field and was fortunate to have a gap open up nicely for him on the rail, so that he was able to stay on strongly unimpeded. While things fell kindly for him in the race itself, this was still a step up on his 2yo efforts, and the extra distance was clearly in his favour. Richard Fahey had said beforehand that the colt had done very well physically over the winter, and there could easily be more to come from him.
Well Painted has had only the one run and was as green as grass only really getting the hang of it late on over 7flngs and running on well on good / g.soft ground. but to my mind has been hammered by the handicapper in its first handicap if this one wins it will be a nag me horse for sure off this mark - the lack of experience and claimer ridden makes me turn towards the less market fancied Chapter Seven.✔
Because am feet up today have done the same breeding analysis throughout the channel Four cards
2.20 Newmarket (allegedly drying!) Chill the Kite✔✔✔ and Dixies Dream✔✔ are bred for the conditions
2.35 Chester Viva Ronaldo✔ with a good claimer gets back in on a good mark for a horse that can handle bottomless ground
2.55 Newmarket Shropshire✔ is completely unfancied at the moment but ran a cracker here in soft ground when the winner came from the other side of the track
3.10 Chester - how does Oceanway✔get a lower mark than he ran off at Chester in soft ground? has the best distance speed of these and is 7lbs well in in my book
3.30 the top weight Trooping the Colour✔✔✔under Frankie is actually well in these conditions bred from Nayef looks a solid bet and frankie has it all to prove!
3.45 Doncaster and lee takes the ride on Louis the Pious and has chances (though tricky bugger) will have it all to do but is a very tricky race to way up and prob not a bet at this time
4.00 Newmarket the best prize money on offer and High Jinx ✔( is bred for this ground and a worthy fav in my eyes with a great draw advantage) but the animals to watch because of their breeding are Spifer ✔ - Ermyn Lodge ✔- High Office ✔- Western Pearl✔ -Lyssio✔ - The Animal that seems to be discounted yet has great course and ground form is Ithoughitwasallover✔
Dont forget there are other races and some decent action at Heavy ground hexham
1.50 I have to stay with Samstown who I reckon is an up and coming star I’m confident this drop down in trip from 2m4f did not suit him and it looked as so the rest of the field were always going just a yard too fast for him. Saying that it was probably a smart move by connections to stick him over this trip at this early stage of his career as he will have learned plenty at the faster pace the heavy going will bring the best out in him
good luck today
dont bet the mortgage
Bob
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