The St James’s Palace Stakes is one of three group 1 races taking place on day 1 of Royal Ascot, which kicks off on Tuesday 19th June. Run over a mile for 3yos only, it brings together horses that have been running in the different 2000 Guineas races around Europe. Last year this race was won by the mighty Frankel.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Race for 3yos
Breeding
8 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner
8 of 10 winners were sired by horse that had won all his races over a mile or shorter (1 exception sired by Giants Causeway, who won this in 2000, and other was by Galileo)
10 of 10 winners were born before 26th April
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (3 others beaten in French or Irish 2000 Guineas)
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2
9 of 10 winners ran in last 30 days
9 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (exception was 2nd)
9 of 10 winners won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (exception didn't run in a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo)
2000 Guineas Form
Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Power): 10715111 (5-0-8)
English 2000 Guineas winner (Camelot): 145171 (3-0-6)
Highest placed finisher from English 2000 Guineas: 1145151271 (5-1-10)
French 2000 Guineas winner: 25135 (1-2-5)
Highest placed finisher from French 2000 Guineas: 2521435927 (1-4-10)
8 of 10 winners ran in English 2000 Guineas, finishing 12341531
7 of 10 winners ran in Irish 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 1021111
2 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas, finishing 14
9 of 10 winners had finished in first two in Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (exception was 4th in French 2000)
Other Races
Dewhurst Stakes winner (Parish Hall): 171561 (3-0-6)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 2811 (2-1-4)
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner (Dabirsim): 14347 (1-1-5)
National Stakes winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)
Royal Lodge winner (Daddy Longlegs): 1 (1-0-1)
Richmond Stakes winner (Harbour Watch): 2 (0-1-1)
Blenheim Stakes winner (Born To Sea): 62 (0-1-2)
Prix Djebel winner (French Fifteen): 27 (0-1-2)
Prix de Fontainebleau winner (Dragon Pulse): 52 (0-1-2)
Futurity Stakes winner (Dragon Pulse): 03 (0-1-2)
Free Handicap winner (Telwaar): 05 (0-0-2)
Prix Morny winner (Dabirsim): 45 (0-0-2)
Loughbrown Stakes winner (Requisition): 089 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 1411
3 of 10 winners ran in the Greenham, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 131
3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 611
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 233
2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21
Trainers
British trained runners: 5-9-53
Irish trained runners: 5-8-31
French trained runners: 0-2-7
German trained runners: 0-1-1
Other: 0-0-2
Aidan O’Brien (4-8-25) has won 4 of the last 10 runnings of this race (including 3 of the last 5). His first string has a record of 4-4-10.
Richard Hannon (1-1-6) and John Oxx (1-0-1) are the only other 2 trainers with an entry this season to have won the race in the past decade.
Nicolas Clement (0-1-1), John Gosden (0-1-3), Brian Meehan (0-1-3) and Michael Stoute (0-1-3) have all had one placed finisher since 2002.
Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
Horses drawn 1 to 3: 3-3-27
Horses drawn 4 to 6: 5-4-27
Horses drawn 7 or higher: 2-11-32
No strong trends on the draw.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
This has not been a race for upsets in the past 10 years with the winner coming from the first 4 in the betting in each of last 10 years and no winner going off bigger than 8/1.
Favourites (7-1-11) have won 7 of the last 10, including the last 4, giving a level stakes profit of 4.13.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a group 1 winner who’d never won over further than 1M
· Won first time out & won a group race as a 2yo
· First 3 in the Morny, Coventry, Dewhurst and/or Railway as 2yo
· Ran in the past 30 days
· Won last time out
· Group 1 winner
· Finished in the first 2 in Ir/Fr/Eng 2000 Guineas
· Ran in Irish 2000 Guineas last time out
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien
· Priced 8/1 or below (favourite does very well)
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