Market Rasen Summer Plate 230712

 Market Rasen Summer Plate 23 july 2012 

ground is forecast to be Good (wow)

    13/13 had a top 2 finish in 1 of their last 3 starts

2              12/13 had no more than 2 previous chase hcp wins

3              12/13 had an OR of 135 and below

4              12/13 were aged between 6 & 10

5              11/13 finished in the top 2 last time out (9 won)

6              11/13 had no more than 4 chase wins

7              11/13 had previously won a chase at cl3 level or better

8              10/13 had 11 or fewer chase starts

9              9/13 ran within last 60 days

10           9/13 carried 10-13 or less to victory

11           8/13 were either a novice or a 2nd season chaser

12           need to have run in field of at leat 10 animals and won

Its animals that like to be up the front at market Rasen that take this race and there are few who are natural front runners in it today - 

My summing up of the race is that you want an animal that can run close up and mix it in a big field 

SPOCK is the first I’m happy to drop from the list. His record going right-handed compared to left-handed would be a worry for myself and even if he did manage to pull it together today and win going this way round it’s not something I would lose much sleep over. He is also the only 1 on the shortlist to have Dosage negatives against him.

STONETHROWER holds solid credentials but there is a chance he may get into a duel for the lead which would compromise his chances. He has also only won in fields if of 7 or less and I’m happy to swerve him today.

LUCKY LANDING doesn’t convince me in the jumping stakes and he also doesn’t strike me as being well handicapped of his current mark. He is another I’m happy to swerve.

TIGER O’TOOLE is not one I pass over lightly but I have a small concern over him in a large field and also over this 2m6f trip. He doesn’t strike me as one that will completely relish the extra distance and his form figures when stepping out beyond 2m4f read 0-P; he is reluctantly passed over today.

That leaves us with 3 – AL CO, THAT’LL DO & EASTLAKE – all 3 I could give chances to.

 Regular readers of this Blog will already be familiar with AL CO (P Bowen) and hopefully will have backed him on his last 2 runs. I commented way back  that Bowen could have a potentially very well handicapped chaser on his hands and that fact remains; he is only 2lbs higher than his hurdle mark and could well still have improvement in him yet. Dougie Costello has an outstanding 4 from 4 record on the horse and despite having never won on officially ‘Good’ ground he has won on faster AND softer so the underfoot conditions don’t concern me. Bowen loves targeting this race (4 winners in the past 10 renewals) and it has been in my thoughts that this race has been the long term plan/plot for AL CO. He looks likely to start as favourite but he can justify those odds and land the 3 timer.

THAT’LL DO, who will love the ground and the trip, and EASTLAKE, who has an excellent relationship with A P McCoy, can fill the places behind Peter Bowen’s runner.