The Coral Eclipse Stakes takes place today Sandown, 7th July. A group 1
run over 1M 2F, it is the first chance for the classic generation to take on
the older horses at the highest level, In recent years there have not been many
takers from the 3yo ranks. Racing has taken a body blow because of the
appalling weather and ground conditions and the top horses from this year have
been withdrawn
The trends for the past 10 years:
Age
3yo: 3-4-24 Bonfire and Cogito
4yo: 3-9-31 Farhh
(supplemented and that was when the defections were starting to happen!) Nathaniel
and Crackerjack king
5yo: 4-2-21 Monterso
6yo+:
0-1-7 Sri Putra City Style Cityscape
Twice Over (who won this
race in 2010 and is the only CDG winner in the line up)
No
strong trends on age, though this race has not been won by horse aged over 5 in past 100 years. (to be fair they did not have entries until 1965 )
but that is still 47 years! and the way this race has cut up it could be due for a statistical change
All three 3yo
winners were trained in Ireland & finished in first 4 in the 2000 Guineas.
All seven older
winners ran at Royal Ascot last time.
Gender
Mares (0-0-5) have failed to fill a single place despite 3 of their 5
representatives in this being sent off shorter than 5/1. That’s only
interesting –as there are no Fem’s entered!
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10
winners achieved career highest RPR in last 3 starts
10 of 10
winners had run between 2 and 4
times that season
10 of 10
winners had run in past 30 days
6 of 10
winners had won over 1M 2F+ (2 of 4 exceptions were 3yos)
10 of 10
winners had won a group 1
9 of 10
winners finished 1st or 2nd in a
group 1 this year
7 of 10
winners were having first course start (2 others were CD winners)
2 of 3
winners aged 3 had won a group 1 as a
2yo (exception had won a group 2 and not contested a group 1 as a juvenile)
Other Races
Previous year's highest finisher to return: 4113 (2-0-4)
Previous year's Juddmonte Int'l winner (Twice Over): 21 (1-1-2)
Dubai Duty Free winner (Cityscape):
1 (1-0-1)
Dante Stakes winner (Bonfire): 22 (0-2-2)
Premio Presidente Della Repubblica winner (Crackerjack King): 3 (0-0-1)
Previous year's Italian Derby winner (Crackerjack King): 4 (0-0-1)
5 of 10
winners ran in Prince of Wales Stakes last time, finishing 54322
2 of 10 winners ran in Queen Anne Stakes last time, finishing 15
4 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Champion Stakes, finishing
1801
3 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 241
3 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 201
2 of 10 winners ran in Mooresbridge Stakes, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 11
2 of 10
winners ran in the Dubai Duty Free, finishing 81
7 of 7 winners
aged 4+ finished in first 5 in Prince of Wales or Queen Anne Stakes last time
3 of 3 winners
aged 3 finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & finished in the first 3 in the
Derby or St James’ Palace last time
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (4-3-17)
has trained the winner 4 times in the past 10 years .BUT HAS NO RUNNER TODAY
Brian Meehan (1-1-3) and Henry Cecil (1-1-4) have each saddled the
winner and a placed finisher in past 10 runnings.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-7) has also trained the winner since 2002.
Price
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting
Only one winner
in the past decade was sent off greater than 8/1.
Favourites
(4-4-10) have supplied the last 3 winners however they show a level stakes loss
of 0.61 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Male aged 3 that
finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & Derby or
· Males aged 4 or 5
that finished first 5 at Royal Ascot last time
· Had 2 to 4 runs
this season
· Run in last 30
days
· Achieved
highest RPR in last 3 starts
· Had won a group 1
· Finished in first
2 in a group 1 in 2012
· Finished in first
5 in Queen Anne, Prince Of Wales or Derby last time
· From first 4 in
the betting
Cityscape had a howler of a race last time at
Sha Tin 6th of May starting
off odds on had surprised
most people with a facile success in the Duty Free, He had a favourable trip
that day, which certainly wasn´t the case here. Slowly away, he got caught on
the heels of Fair
Trade when trying to make his
run and when out in the clear was never going to be able to pick up the front
five. He´s a solid Group 1 performer without being the superstar many hailed
him as after Meydan. But he loves this track and to be honest you can forgive
him his last run and remembering his 2 and a half lengths second to Dick Turpin
who was in its pomp over a miles here on good ground Held
up last early, he was switched to the wide outside 2f out and eyeballed the
favourite for a few strides, but the winner then produced another gear. There
is no doubt Cityscape is up to this class, not least when he gets today’s
easier conditions. Against him is
the age stat - for him is the ground and the defection of the classier 3
and 4 yr olds. Roger Charlton yard is firing on all cylinders with 5 winners
and 1placed from 10 runners he has stayed 1m1f very well. Can he stay 1m2f with
the Hill to contend with? I think he will with the g/soft ground in his favor.
Bonfire won the Dante in a
very fast time on g/soft and this is his trip on breeding- is it his track? Had
little to find with Camelot in the Derby but had a hard race in the Dante and
was never going to stay 1m4f and was found wanting for stamina. He didn´t
handle the track either and will appreciate dropping back to 1m2f the worry is
Sandown Hill for this one in a fast run race.
those two will do for me today
Bob
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