The Sky Bet Dash Stakes 28 July 2012

The Sky Bet Dash Stakes takes place today at York on Saturday 28th July. It’s a 6 furlong class 2 handicap for horses rated 105 or lower. The race was first run in 2004. the ground is fast and probably going to be firm for this dash 

Trends for the past 8 years:

Age

3yo: 1-0-15

4yo: 3-8-37

5yo: 2-4-26

6yo: 1-3-23

7yo+: 1-4-27

Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 6-12-78

Horses aged 6+ have a poor combined record of 2-7-50

Horses carrying 8-7 or less: 0-2-27

7 of 8 winners carried 8-12 or higher, they represented just 60% of total runners.

Horses carrying a penalty (0-2-3) have gained 2 seconds from 3 runners.

Top weight: 016420621 (2-2-8)

Recent/Past Form

7 of 8 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 starts

8 of 8 winners had run at least twice that year

6 of 8 winners had won a race that season (2 exceptions finished 2nd in a h'cap worth 18K+ that season)

8 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days

7 of 8 winners had won or placed over CD (exception was having first run at York)

8 of 8 winners had won over 6F

8 of 8 winners had won a race worth 11K or more

6 of 8 winners had won a class 1 or 2 race (2 exceptions were class 3 winners who had finished 2nd in a class 2 h'cap that season)

Other Races

Totequadpot Conditions Stakes winner (Nasri): 1 (1-0-1)

New William Hill iPhone App Handicap winner (Colonel Mak): 2 (0-1-1)

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-7-64

Horses drawn 9 or higher: 3-12-64

No strong trend on the draw, though only one winner has come from higher than stall 10.

Racing Tactics

5 of 8 winners were held up

3 of 8 chased leaders early on

Price

7 of 8 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

Only one winner has gone off bigger than 8/1.

Favourites (2-1-8) have won 2 of the previous 8 runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 or 5

·         Carrying 8-12 or more (top weight does well)

·         Horses carrying a penalty do well

·         Officially rated 101 or higher

·         Finished 1st or 2nd on one or both of last 2 runs

·         Won a race worth 11K+ this season

·         Won over 6F

·         Won or placed over CD

·         Won a class 1 or 2 race (or finished 2nd in a class 2 h’cap in 2012)

·         Ran in a sprint at Dante meeting (ideally William Birch & Sons Construction H'cap)

·         Placed in Epsom Dash, Cammidge Trophy or Scottish Stewards’ Cup

·         Trained by Richard Fahey

·         From first 4 in the betting (8/1 or shorter)

The trends will be affected by the unusual weather conditions we have encountered  and today's going has not been evident on the last run for most of them. So we have to go back further . The track has changed quite a bit and the tendency is for the sprint to come down the middle of the track - higher drawn horses who are held up and finish strongly need to be considered.

I think the  Scottish Stewards’ Cup is the best form on offer for today's contest. Grissom won that with ease off a mark of 90 ( visual form book made that a performance around the 100. hes drawn 20 today and has to buck the trends but think that's well possible - it also has to buck the trend for 6 yr old's but its speed figure that day was an amazing 68 on heavy ground - it has recorded speed figures in the mid 70s on g/frm ground over this trip. its running style is the key methinks - in that race he was held up made smooth headway  and ran on so well. 

 Colonel Mak also ran in the race and col Mak can uphold the chances of the top weights - can travel well on all sorts of ground conditions and is from the middle of the track (drawn 15)

Klynch  Fast Shot  both ran well and will perform well on this faster ground but dont really have the profile

The Joker in the pack has to be dettori mount Swiss Cross who gets in here well - and has won on fast ground and placed in the Epsom dash beaten a length but put up its best performance ever that Day

 good luck all

 Bob