The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Betfair) takes place at Ascot on the 21st July and is one of the highlights on the British Flat horse racing calendar. Run over a mile and a half, this year’s race see’s Nathaniel attempt to become the first horse since Swain in 1998 to win back to back renewals.It was dry here overnight so the going in the straight course is GOOD and it is GOOD TO SOFT on the round 

Age

3yo: 2-2-10

4yo: 8-6-40

5yo: 0-6-24

6yo+: 0-2-11

8 of 10 winners were aged 4

Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of the total runners.

Since 2000 there have been three 3yo winners, 2 won the Irish Derby on previous start, while other won the King Edward at Ascot on last start.

Gender

All 5 fillies/mares to run in this in past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 14/1 & 14/1).The last female to win the race was time Charter in 1983.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run between 2 and 4 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (1 exception was making seasonal debut & other was placed on both previous starts that year)

9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions won a 1M 4F group 2 at Royal Ascot by over 3 lengths on previous start)

6 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a group 1 or 2 by 3+ lengths

10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races

That season

Hardwicke Stakes winner (Sea Moon): 15381 (2-0-5)

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Light Heavy): 1 (1-0-1)

Ormonde Stakes winner (Memphis Tennessee): 813 (1-0-3)

Yorkshire Cup winner (Red Cadeaux): 363 (0-2-3)

Dubai World Cup winner (Monterosso): 2 (0-1-1)

Highest placed Derby finisher: 355 (0-1-3)

Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 769533 (0-1-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121

3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season

Previous season

Previous season's winner (Nathaniel): 6 (0-0-1)

Previous season's Prix Niel winner (Reliable Man): 121 (2-1-3)

Arc winner (Danedream): 312 (1-2-3)

Breeders' Cup Turf winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 41 (1-0-2)

St Leger winner (Masked Marvel): 471 (1-0-3)

Previous season's Prix Du Jockey Club winner (Reliable Man): 2 (0-1-1)

Great Voltigeur winner (Sea Moon): 27F (0-1-3)

Grosser Preis Von Baden winner (Danedream): 47 (0-0-2)

Hong Kong Vase winner (Dunaden): 504 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Prix Niel, finishing 121

3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 441

3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the International Stakes at York, finishing 44

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in previous Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers

British-trained runners: 5-14-59

Irish-trained runners: 4-1-15

French-trained runners: 1-1-6

Other: 0-1-5

Michael Stoute (3-5-15) has trained the winner 3 times in the past 10 years and seen over half his 15 runners make the places.

Aidan O’Brien (2-1-12) has trained 2 of the last 5 winners, both were 4yos who had finished in first 2 in the Prix Ganay, Tatts Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales in 3 runs that season.

John Gosden (1-0-3) trained Nathaniel to win this last year & he will attempt to do it again.

Price

All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter

Favourites (6-1-10) have won 6 of last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.98 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4

·         2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)

·         Run in last 50 days

·         Won a group 1 (or won Hardwicke or King Edward II last time)

·         Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at this trip)

·         Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup

·         Ran in Prince Of Wales or Hardwicke Stakes last time

·         Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2011

·         Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien

·         Priced shorter than 7/1