absolute rubbish selections! July/August 2012

I cannot believe how bad the selections am putting up are faring - this has been a dismal month for me and only last minute parade inspections have proved to be of any worth - have looked back over the last 5 years accounts and find that though July and August have been lull times they have NEVER been this bad.
yesterday the ground simply went to pieces between morning and race time - with only forecast showers  that turned into deluge - already sodden ground simply chopped up and horses that have had hard times on sour ground did not perform at all -  

Today's racing is as poor and I simply cannot find an angle that will help me tweak the systems so am off to walk the dawgs take in some fresh air and wait for September before kissing any more money goodbye on the Gee Gee's 
  
 best of luck if your still gonna take the bookie on 

 Bob

Dark Horse 4.55 Huntington

Interesting if money comes for the Debutante hurdler Harting Hill 314 dsr today in the 4.55 very well bred from Muhjahid ( and related to khyber kim ) out of a king of Spain mare-  ran a cracker fresh on the flat 313 dsr currently 25/1 Huntington not a greatly known trainer and Kennedy not ridden this track much but be alert to a gamble.
 Bob
 update have taken a price of 46s and now into 26s betfair this should be a decent trade

three on the radar 270812 Nag me horses

	15:25 Bangor	Dipity Doo Dah (GB)	8	47/2232	7/2 (early)
	Dipity Doo Dah (GB) |Note Created: 11 May 2012 | 14:32  what a great run at market rasen after a layoff 11may12 follow traveled best swinger off bridle  today is wearing blinks and a horse that only does so much when getting the lead  has worn visor/cheek pieces before
	14:35 Huntingdon	Arkaim (GB)	4	464	7/1 (early)
	Arkaim (GB) | Note Created: 3 Jul 2012 | 18:16  ran a nice sort of race at Stratford 030712 30/1 and went into 17 but no shorter 2miles was given a very educational ride and the one to take out of the race watch when it starts much lower than this price.   Today - so far has has shown very little but the market opening at 6/1 says something in its first handicap and ridden by Timmy Murphy settled much better last time  and this mark was well below what its capable of
	17:10 Newcastle	Boss's Destination (GB)	5	216778	9/1 (early)
	Boss's Destination (GB) |   Note Created: 27 Mar 2012 | 16:24  what a good horse this one is fantastic run photo at southwell 1m6f beatn by a nose bds american bred and such a good bet at 14s   Today has a hood on for the first time has a rise of only 2lbs over its last win and has won 2miles to a mark of 7lbs higher and is myBTl today

The Betfred Ebor Handicap 250812 Updated

The Betfred Ebor Handicap takes placed on the Saturday (25th August) of York’s four-day Ebor festival. The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged and as a result the Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury. However from a trends perspective we will focus on the last 10 runnings of the Ebor at York.

Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2001-2011):
Last year - Moyenne Corniche (10), Age 6, Wgt 8 - 13, SP 25/1 - D Swift / B Ellison
They raced up the middle of the track in the closing stages and for the sixth consecutive running the winner was drawn in double figures, but considering the full result it´s hard to argue there was a bias. The pace seemed fair, with Tactician taking them along in a clear lead and having enough left to keep on for second, while the winner was well behind early. .MOYENNE CORNICHE was hard to fancy with confidence considering his only previous win from 24 starts came in a maiden back in 2008, but this was only his eighth run since joining Brian Ellison, evidently a trainer extremely capable at unlocking the potential in an underachieving horse. He´s had excuses in recent runs, notably sitting too close to an overly strong pace when finishing behind a few of these in both the Northumberland Plate and the John Smith´s Cup. This time, though, he enjoyed a much better trip,travelling well under patient tactics and producing a sustained challenge to lead late on. It was a fine ride from Dale Swift.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-7-12

4yo: 2-12-80

5yo: 5-7-61

6yo+: 2-1-33

7yo+: 0-3-16

3 year olds have the best record, having won 2 of the 11 runnings from less than 8% of the total runners and 8 of their 12 runners in past 10 runnings made the frame.

5 year olds have won 5 of last 10 runnings from approximately 28.8% of the runners.

In the last 30 years, there have only been 2 winners aged older than 5.

You have to go back to 1979 and the great Sea Pigeon for last winner aged 7+.

Weights

Horses carrying 8-13 or more: 3-20-121

Horses carrying 8-12 or less: 7-10-81

Only 3 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory, all 3 posted a career high RPR of 107+ on their last start, 2 were running under a penalty for winning a race at Glorious Goodwood.

Horses carrying a penalty: 3-4-25

Claimers (2-1-15) have ridden 2 of the last 3 winners of the Ebor.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-9-46

Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-20-125

Horses rated 91 or less: 3-1-31

7 of 10 winners (last 4) have been officially rated between 92 and 102.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts

8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better on last flat start (both exceptions won a class 3)

9 of 10 winners posted highest RPR of last 12 months in their last 2 starts

10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days

8 of 10 winners had won a race that year (2 others placed in listed or group race that year)

9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or better (exception finished 2nd in a group 3)

8 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicaps

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps

8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 4F+ (2 exceptions placed in a class 1 race over 1M 4F+)

4 of 10 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood last time

2 of 10 winners ran in a 2M class 2 handicap at Ascot last time

2 of 10 winners ran at the Galway Festival last time

Other Races

Toyo Tires Performance Stakes winner (Motivado): 01360 (1-1-5)

Goodwood Stakes winner (Hurricane Higgins): 1 (1-0-1)

Queen Mother's Cup winner (Crackentorp): 01 (1-0-2)

November Handicap winner (Zuider Zee): 20 (0-1-2)

Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Cambourne): 306 (0-1-3)

Investec Zebra Handicap winner (Fiery Lad): 06 (0-0-2)

Previous season's Melrose Stakes winner (Parlour Games): 88 (0-0-2)

32Red.com Handicap winner (Life And Soul): 00 (0-0-2)

Shergar Cup Stayers winner (Address Unknown): 60000 (0-0-5)

Old Newton Cup winner (Number Theory): 050090 (0-0-6)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 415

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 72

2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 00

4 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot that season

4 of 10 winners finished in first 4 at Glorious Goodwood last time out

Trainers

Luca Cumani (2-1-6) has won the race three times since 1999 and 4 of his 6 runners in past 10 years have made the first 5 home.

Aidan O’Brien (1-3-5) does particularly well with his 3yos. The four 3yos he has saddled in the last 10 runnings have finished 1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.

Brian Ellison (1-1-5) & Willie Mullins (1-0-4) have both saddled the winner in past 3 years.

Michael Stoute (0-3-9) and James Fanshawe (0-2-4) have both saddled multiple placed- finishers.

Irish-trained runners (3-4-17) have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 8% of the total runners. They have done particularly well recently, filling the runners-up spot in 2007, the first 2 home in 2009 and the 1st & 4th in 2010.

Draw

Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 8-7-70

Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 1-10-62

Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 1-13-70

8 of 10 winners were drawn in the highest 7 stalls

Racing Tactics

9 of 10 winners (last 8) were held up in midfield or rear

Price

No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 4 of the winners going off 14/1 or shorter and the other 6 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.

Favourites (1-4-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 3 to 5

·         Carrying 8-12 or less (or carrying a penalty for a Glorious Goodwood win)

·         Officially rated 92 to 102

·         Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs

·         Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts

·         Won a race this season

·         Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days

·         Had last run at Goodwood, Ascot or Galway

·         Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)

·         Won at class 3 level or higher

·         Won over 1M 4F+ (or placed in a class 1 race over 1M 4F+)

·         Drawn in highest 7 stalls

·         Hold up horses favoured

·         Trained by Luca Cumani or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo

 well overnight there is an angle for weld Horse Sense of Purpose at 28s betfair  currently - drawn in the 22 box - last year thought this horse was capable of winning the Melbourne cup! Sired by Galileo and Tongue tied first time tomorrow -  she will be much shorter when the Weld brigade wake up in the morning -- its all about the going as ever and will take a squint early tomorrow was second to  Banimpire over 1m4f  ( having won for me already at 1m6f) and looked so in need of this distance has made me money at 1m6f on both occasions. Its a really decent each way call. It has weight but that's the only thing that makes it slightly out of the trends!  

Non runner and now to look at them again


Of the Irish runners who are within the trends its quite amazing to see an Obrien horse Harrison's  Cave out around the 20/1 market price has won going away in a 1m5f race at Navan on soft ground is a 4yr old colt by Galileo carrying 8-11 - take a look at the ascot handicap over 1m4f fast finishing third  behind Cambourne (currenly 8/1)and Hamerfest currently 11/1) only 3l beaten by Cambourne and 1/2l by Hamerfest he can easily reverse those placings - The run in that race also highlights the decent effort of Alkimos first time cheek pieces  (high chapparal colt) currently 28/1 and ridden by Da Sousa.

Taking last years winner into account - look at the chances of Goldie horse   Icon Dream who ran a cracker in the heavy ground Johns Smith cup on its first run for Goldie (todays favvy well beaten that Day  - Motivado was well back).

Royal Diamond from Ireland gets in here light and a very dark horse has a very high weight increase since its last win though

 Qahriman holds the best chances on stats age and improver  at the bottom of the handicap course form is very good and long layoff for stayer - Will Take my chances on multiple place betting on Icon Dream and Alkimos.  with a watching brief for a bet in running on Harrisons Cave!

 Good luck to my ole mate Mark Marvell  who is going to have the day there on track - 

"make it something Special  Mark"

 Bob

The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes 240812

The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and is the big race on the card of the third day of York’s Ebor meeting on Friday 24th August. A group 1, run over 5 furlongs, for 2 year olds and older, this year’s race looks the most open for years. and add to that the uncertainty of the ground conditions 

 Last year - 2011: (15 ran) Margot Did (11), Age 3, Wgt 9 - 6, SP 20/1 - Hayley Turner / M L W Bell

Below we take a look at trends for past 10 running's at York (2001-2011):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

2yo: 1-1-6

3yo: 4-3-28

4yo: 2-7-37

5yo: 1-0-18

6yo+: 2-9-47

Younger horses have held the edge lately:

Horses aged 2 to 4: 7-11-71

Horses aged 5+: 3-9-65

Of the six 2yo runners, only 2 made the first 3 in a Royal Ascot race: Kingsgate Native Radiohead. They were the two to make the frame in this, finishing 1st and 3rd.

3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in a Newmarket group 1 as 2yos (4th Dewhurst, 1st Middle Park & 5th in Cheveley Park)

 Gender

Fillies/mares (2-1-26) have gained 2 win & 1 place from approximately 21.3% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had won that season (exception was a 2yo maiden)

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time out (9 of 10 in a class 1 race)

8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR in their last 3 runs

6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (1 exception was twice 2nd in group 1 company, 2 others had yet to run in higher than group 3)

10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a group or listed race

Only 2 of 10 winners had won a 5F group race (both won Temple)

6 of 10 winners had won over 6F (2 exceptions had not run over further than 5F, other 2 were placed 66% of runs over 6F)

Other Races

July Cup winner (Mayson): 1412 (2-1-4)

Temple Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 101809 (2-0-6)

Middle Park Stakes winner (Crusade): 172 (1-1-3)

Land O'Burns Fillies Stakes winner (Angels Will Fall): 1 (1-0-1)

Sandown Scurry Stakes winner (Pearl Secret): 61 (1-0-2)

poptelecom.co.uk Essential Conditions Stakes winner (Elsuivity): 610 (1-0-3)

City Walls Stakes winner (Hamish McGonagall): 0018 (1-0-4)

Palace House Stakes winner (Mayson): 17050 (1-0-5)

Abbaye winner (Tangerine Trees): 82 (0-1-2)

King George Stakes winner (Ortensia): 200668 (0-1-6)

Prix de Saint-Georges winner (Beyond Desire): 90 (0-0-2)

Cornwallis Stakes winner (Ponty Acclaim): 55 (0-0-2)

Abernant Stakes winner (Mayson): 40 (0-0-2)

Duke Of York Stakes winner (Tiddliwinks): 7774 (0-0-4)

Prix du Gros Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 0400045 (0-0-7)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 3270

4 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 1434

3 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 110

3 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes last time, finishing 64

2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 09

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 63

3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in a group 1 as a 2yo at Newmarket

Trainers

British-trained runners: 8-16-121

Irish-trained runners: 2-3-7

French-trained runners: 0-1-6

Other: 0-0-2 

Aidan O’Brien (1-2-3) has gained 1 wins & 2 places from 3 runners in this since 2001.

Eddie Lynam (1-0-1), Michael Bell (1-0-1), Robin Bastiman (1-0-2) and Henry Candy (1-0-4) have also trained the winner once since 2001.

Kevin Ryan (0-3-9) has seen 3 of his 9 runners make the frame while Brian Meehan (0-2-2) has saddled 2 runners in last 10 runnings, both were placed.

Draw

Horses drawn in bottom 4 stalls: 5-5-40

Horses drawn in middle: 3-6-56

Horses drawn in top 4 stalls: 2-9-40

5 of 10 winners came from stall 4 or below

For last 2 years higher draws appeared to hold an advantage so it’s worth watching where the winners are coming from in the sprints earlier in the week to gain an idea of the best draw is over the 5F course.

Price

No strong trends on prices, the first 4 winners from 2000 were favourites however the last 4 winners have gone off 12/1, 9/1, 100/1 & 20/1.

Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.11.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 renewals you are looking for a horse:

·         2yo that finished in first 3 at Royal Ascot 2012 or

·         3yo that finished in first 5 in Newmarket group 1 as a 2yo or

·         Aged 4+ that had won a group 1 or 2

·         Won a race this season

·         Finished in first 6 on last 3 starts

·         Won a group 1 or 2 sprint

·         Won over 6F (or won Temple Stakes this year)

·         Finished in first 4 in King’s Stand and/or Palace House Stakes

·         Finished in first 2 in July Cup and/or Temple Stakes

·         Irish-trained runners do well (especially by Aidan O’Brien)

 Dont be put off by the price! Sole Power 100/1 beat home Starspangledbanner 6/4 in this race  the 3 yr old had done nothing to suggest he was capable - but was a stand out in the parade ring!!!!  

 Can Frankie ride a winner ?  Spirit Quartz  is a decent animal that has run in this sort of field  but ran well wide of other runners at goodwood may not like the hurly burly of this race!

 Pearl secret is lightening fast for a three year old but has been kept away from large fields in the main - but won well at york 071011 stakes nicely first time out impressive style in a 12 runner field and has the plum draw of 19  and Spencer knows it so well ! and has handled ground from good to heavy - 

Angels will fall won the same race at Ayr as margot Did last year is a filly and they have done well from few runner in the past 

Bogart  is a 3 yr old Enigma who has run very well this track Beaten half a length by Tiddlywinks  and won here over 6flngs g/soft  is well drawn and if its your longshot selection I cannot say anything to put you off - well drawn for a horse that tends to run right handed.

Masamaah is by Exceed and at 6 is running well  (margot did was the only Exceed bred in last years race) and Doctor koukash owned runner has won a 5flngs here at york in 13 runner race and ridden by lee - is a very lively outsider likes the track and has won at 6flngs  but is now looking a specialist over the minimum trip and return here for the Nunthorpe  is  another tougher test for him, but he wasn´t disgraced on his previous outing in Group company last year and his liking for York  is a plus on results so far for course winners.

Good luck in this cavalry charge - from the racing post - GOING: Good

WEATHER: 5.8mm rain Thursday. Dry overnight since 6pm Thursday. Cloudy during day, risk of showers, 18C. (said much the same yesterday morning and had 4mm of rain during the oaks! Get the paddock pick and get the winner!

 Good luck all

 bob

1 Ortensia 7/2J 
2 Spirit Quartz 14/1 
3 Hamish McGonagall 14/1 

Frankie was riding a race that he should have won was just not aware of Ortensia brilliant ride by Buick - This was a remarkable display by ORTENSIA, who thundered home from a long way off the pace to snatch the race close home. Australia´s first Nunthorpe winner - she has been based in Newmarket since April - she had disappointed in the King´s Stand and couldn´t copewith the bad ground in the July Cup, but she showed her true mettle in the King George Stakes and confirmed her superiority over no fewer than eight of her rivals from Goodwood, with whom she was 7lb better off.

First home in Grade 1 sprints at Ascot (Australia), Randwick (disqualified) and Meydan (beat Sole Power), she has only once met the sprint queen Black Caviar, when third to her in November 2010. She will remain in Britain for a tilt at the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock, where the 6f and flat track will suit her fine, and she must have serious claims provided it doesn´t get too soft. William Buick believes it´s important that she can run straight as she´s not as effective if she has to weave through horses.

When the King George runner-up Spirit Quartz struck the front it looked like he would prevail, but he could not resist his old rival´s strong burst. This Group 3 winner in Italy has run a string of consistent races for his current connections without managing to land a first prize. The Prix de l´Abbaye could be a suitable target and his trainer believes he´ll be better still at five.

 Bob

The Darley Yorkshire Oaks 230812

The Darley Yorkshire Oaks is the highlight of day 2 of York’s Ebor meeting on Thursday 23rd August. Run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares, this race is the first chance for the older horses to take on the classic generation over the Oaks trip. Older horses must concede 10lbs to their younger rivals. This has to be a sub standard renewal of the race with only the 7 runners and the top candidates withdrawn because of the ground.
 Sir Henry Cecil won with a horse carrying the 9-07 (Midday 11/4) and Gosden with  Dar Ra Mi (11/2)  his runner today is a three year old without the penalty The Fugue  

Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings at York (2001-2011):

Age

3yo: 5-12-54

4yo: 4-5-23

5yo+: 1-0-5

5 of 10 winners were aged 4+ despite them only representing 34.1% of the total runners.

3 of the 4 four-year-olds to have won the race in the past 10 runnings had run in it the year before (finishing 1st, 4th and 2nd).

4 of 5 winnings 3yos won the Irish Oaks or Nassau Stakes last time

Recent Form

7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions were placed in a group 2, other was unplaced in the Eclipse)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time out

9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception had won race previous year and both starts that season were against the colts)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or further

7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had won a group 2, other was 3rd in Ribblesdale on only previous run in group company)

6 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at York (other 4 had yet to run at the track)

Other Races

Irish Oaks winner (Great Heavens): 11221 (3-2-5)

Horses placed in Irish Oaks: 489674053 (0-1-9)

Nassau Stakes winner (The Fugue): 111 (3-0-3)

Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Izzi Top): 11 (2-0-2)

Musidora Stakes winner (The Fugue): 1422 (1-2-4)

Epsom Oaks winner (Was): 474122 (1-2-6)

Prix Corrida winner (Solemia): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous season's Montrose Fillies Stakes winner (Coquet): 1 (1-0-1)

Height of Fashion Stakes winner (Coquet): 822 (0-2-3)

Champion Fillies and Mares' Stakes winner (Dancing Rain): 24 (0-1-2)

Pinnacle Stakes winner (Shimmering Surf): 23 (0-1-2)

Blue Wind Stakes winner (Princess Highway): 3R55 (0-1-4)

Middleton Stakes winner (Izzi Top): 6R (0-0-2)

Ribblesdale winner (Princess Highway): 54775 (0-0-5)

4 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 8124 Was won from - Shirroco Star -The Fugue and Coquete

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Oaks, finishing 111 winner is NR and that brings Shirroco Star into the picture big time 

4 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora as a 3yo, finishing 1112

3 of 10 winners ran in the Nassau Stakes last time, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 22

2 of 10 winnes ran in the Pretty Polly, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Prix de Royallieu, 83

5 of the last 7 winners aged 3 had won the Irish Oaks that season  horses placed in the Irish Oaks have a very poor record, gaining 0 wins and just 1 place from 9 runners since 2001. However with the non running of Great Heavens do not simply overlook the 2nd place runner Shirroco Star  - its second in the derby also lends weight to  big run from the filly today with Hughes taking the ride - is completely at home on good to firm ground which it has not had since its win at newbury last back end.

Trainers

British trained runners: 7-14-55

Irish trained runners: 2-1-19

German/Italian trained runners: 1-1-4

French trained runners: 0-1-4

Aidan O’Brien (2-1-11) has won 2 of the last 5 runnings of this race at York.

Henry Cecil (1-2-3) and John Gosden (1-2-4) have each trained the winner and 2 placed finishers in the past 10 runnings.

Ed Dunlop (0-1-3) & Michael Bell (0-1-4) have each saddled the runner-up in past 3 years.

Price

The last 9 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter

Super Tassa at 25/1 in 2001 has been the only real shock in the past 10 renewals, all other winners came from first 3 in the betting.

Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.63.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 3 that won the Irish Oaks or Nassau Stakes last time

·         Aged 4+ that finished in first 4 in this race in 2011

·         Run at least twice in 2012

·         Won last time out

·         Posted an RPR of 107+ in a group 1 or 2 last time

·         Won over 1M 2F+

·         Previously won a group 1

·         Previously finished 1st or 2nd at York (or having first run here)

·         Nassau Stakes or Pretty Polly winner

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden or Henry Cecil

·         From first 3 in the betting 

 So if you have read this far you will see my leaning towards Shirroco Star currently 4th in the betting - she is well up to winning this race on ground she favours and a track that will suite her  have taken the 9.6 for a decent bet 
at time of writing the field is down to 6 runners with the withdrawal of Wild Coco

 Result - disaster the rain that swept the track just before and during was like a cold bath power shower - going was no better than g/soft (still given as good) 
 I posted this on racing Twits - I see your reason for being Sweet On Shareta because Arc and Snow Fairy franks her form - beating Galikova was no mean feat either! but her form to me is for cut and the french dont have the best record here - worthy of a saver though in my book. Bible Belt is very good and Harrington bring one here is a plus but Big bad bob filly and has never done well over further than 1m2f -running this ground twice and winning once over 1m2f -
The But for Shirocco is she did not win the Irish oaks - but will forgive her that because of the soft ground!

and what happened it poured and the french horse reveled in the conditions - such is racing and the folly of selecting a horse way to early in the current weather /ground