The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and is the big race on the card of the third day of York’s Ebor meeting on Friday 24th August. A group 1, run over 5 furlongs, for 2 year olds and older, this year’s race looks the most open for years. and add to that the uncertainty of the ground conditions
Last year - 2011: (15 ran) Margot Did (11), Age 3, Wgt 9 - 6, SP 20/1 - Hayley Turner / M L W Bell
Below we take a look at trends for past 10 running's at York (2001-2011):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-3-28
4yo: 2-7-37
5yo: 1-0-18
6yo+: 2-9-47
Younger horses have held the edge lately:
Horses aged 5+: 3-9-65
Of the six 2yo runners, only 2 made the first 3 in a Royal Ascot race: Kingsgate Native Radiohead. They were the two to make the frame in this, finishing 1st and 3rd.
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in a Newmarket group 1 as 2yos (4th Dewhurst, 1st Middle Park & 5th in Cheveley Park)
Gender
Fillies/mares (2-1-26) have gained 2 win & 1 place from approximately 21.3% of total runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won that season (exception was a 2yo maiden)
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time out (9 of 10 in a class 1 race)
8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR in their last 3 runs
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (1 exception was twice 2nd in group 1 company, 2 others had yet to run in higher than group 3)
10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a group or listed race
Only 2 of 10 winners had won a 5F group race (both won Temple)
6 of 10 winners had won over 6F (2 exceptions had not run over further than 5F, other 2 were placed 66% of runs over 6F)
Other Races
July Cup winner (Mayson): 1412 (2-1-4)
Temple Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 101809 (2-0-6)
Middle Park Stakes winner (Crusade): 172 (1-1-3)
Land O'Burns Fillies Stakes winner (Angels Will Fall): 1 (1-0-1)
Sandown Scurry Stakes winner (Pearl Secret): 61 (1-0-2)
poptelecom.co.uk Essential Conditions Stakes winner (Elsuivity): 610 (1-0-3)
City Walls Stakes winner (Hamish McGonagall): 0018 (1-0-4)
Palace House Stakes winner (Mayson): 17050 (1-0-5)
Abbaye winner (Tangerine Trees): 82 (0-1-2)
King George Stakes winner (Ortensia): 200668 (0-1-6)
Prix de Saint-Georges winner (Beyond Desire): 90 (0-0-2)
Cornwallis Stakes winner (Ponty Acclaim): 55 (0-0-2)
Abernant Stakes winner (Mayson): 40 (0-0-2)
Duke Of York Stakes winner (Tiddliwinks): 7774 (0-0-4)
Prix du Gros Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 0400045 (0-0-7)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 3270
4 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 1434
3 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 110
3 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes last time, finishing 64
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 09
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 63
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in a group 1 as a 2yo at Newmarket
Trainers
British-trained runners: 8-16-121
Irish-trained runners: 2-3-7
French-trained runners: 0-1-6
Other: 0-0-2
Aidan O’Brien (1-2-3) has gained 1 wins & 2 places from 3 runners in this since 2001.
Eddie Lynam (1-0-1), Michael Bell (1-0-1), Robin Bastiman (1-0-2) and Henry Candy (1-0-4) have also trained the winner once since 2001.
Kevin Ryan (0-3-9) has seen 3 of his 9 runners make the frame while Brian Meehan (0-2-2) has saddled 2 runners in last 10 runnings, both were placed.
Draw
Horses drawn in bottom 4 stalls: 5-5-40
Horses drawn in middle: 3-6-56
Horses drawn in top 4 stalls: 2-9-40
5 of 10 winners came from stall 4 or below
For last 2 years higher draws appeared to hold an advantage so it’s worth watching where the winners are coming from in the sprints earlier in the week to gain an idea of the best draw is over the 5F course.
Price
No strong trends on prices, the first 4 winners from 2000 were favourites however the last 4 winners have gone off 12/1, 9/1, 100/1 & 20/1.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.11.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 renewals you are looking for a horse:
· 3yo that finished in first 5 in Newmarket group 1 as a 2yo or
· Aged 4+ that had won a group 1 or 2
· Won a race this season
· Finished in first 6 on last 3 starts
· Won a group 1 or 2 sprint
· Won over 6F (or won Temple Stakes this year)
· Finished in first 4 in King’s Stand and/or Palace House Stakes
· Finished in first 2 in July Cup and/or Temple Stakes
· Irish-trained runners do well (especially by Aidan O’Brien)
Dont be put off by the price! Sole Power 100/1 beat home Starspangledbanner 6/4 in this race the 3 yr old had done nothing to suggest he was capable - but was a stand out in the parade ring!!!!
Dont be put off by the price! Sole Power 100/1 beat home Starspangledbanner 6/4 in this race the 3 yr old had done nothing to suggest he was capable - but was a stand out in the parade ring!!!!
Can Frankie ride a winner ? Spirit Quartz is a decent animal that has run in this sort of field but ran well wide of other runners at goodwood may not like the hurly burly of this race!
Pearl secret is lightening fast for a three year old but has been kept away from large fields in the main - but won well at york 071011 stakes nicely first time out impressive style in a 12 runner field and has the plum draw of 19 and Spencer knows it so well ! and has handled ground from good to heavy -
Angels will fall won the same race at Ayr as margot Did last year is a filly and they have done well from few runner in the past
Bogart is a 3 yr old Enigma who has run very well this track Beaten half a length by Tiddlywinks and won here over 6flngs g/soft is well drawn and if its your longshot selection I cannot say anything to put you off - well drawn for a horse that tends to run right handed.
Bogart is a 3 yr old Enigma who has run very well this track Beaten half a length by Tiddlywinks and won here over 6flngs g/soft is well drawn and if its your longshot selection I cannot say anything to put you off - well drawn for a horse that tends to run right handed.
Masamaah is by Exceed and at 6 is running well (margot did was the only Exceed bred in last years race) and Doctor koukash owned runner has won a 5flngs here at york in 13 runner race and ridden by lee - is a very lively outsider likes the track and has won at 6flngs but is now looking a specialist over the minimum trip and return here for the Nunthorpe is another tougher test for him, but he wasn´t disgraced on his previous outing in Group company last year and his liking for York is a plus on results so far for course winners.
Good luck in this cavalry charge - from the racing post - GOING: Good
WEATHER: 5.8mm rain Thursday. Dry overnight since 6pm Thursday. Cloudy during day, risk of showers, 18C. (said much the same yesterday morning and had 4mm of rain during the oaks! Get the paddock pick and get the winner!
Good luck all
bob
1 Ortensia 7/2J
2 Spirit Quartz 14/1
3 Hamish McGonagall 14/1
2 Spirit Quartz 14/1
3 Hamish McGonagall 14/1
First home in Grade 1 sprints at Ascot (Australia), Randwick (disqualified) and Meydan (beat Sole Power), she has only once met the sprint queen Black Caviar, when third to her in November 2010. She will remain in Britain for a tilt at the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock, where the 6f and flat track will suit her fine, and she must have serious claims provided it doesn´t get too soft. William Buick believes it´s important that she can run straight as she´s not as effective if she has to weave through horses.
When the King George runner-up Spirit Quartz struck the front it looked like he would prevail, but he could not resist his old rival´s strong burst. This Group 3 winner in Italy has run a string of consistent races for his current connections without managing to land a first prize. The Prix de l´Abbaye could be a suitable target and his trainer believes he´ll be better still at five.
Bob
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