The Betfred Ebor Handicap takes placed on the Saturday (25th August) of York’s four-day Ebor festival. The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged and as a result the Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury. However from a trends perspective we will focus on the last 10 runnings of the Ebor at York.
Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2001-2011):
Last year - Moyenne Corniche (10), Age 6, Wgt 8 - 13, SP 25/1 - D Swift / B Ellison
They raced up the middle of the track in the closing stages and for the sixth consecutive running the winner was drawn in double figures, but considering the full result it´s hard to argue there was a bias. The pace seemed fair, with Tactician taking them along in a clear lead and having enough left to keep on for second, while the winner was well behind early. .MOYENNE CORNICHE was hard to fancy with confidence considering his only previous win from 24 starts came in a maiden back in 2008, but this was only his eighth run since joining Brian Ellison, evidently a trainer extremely capable at unlocking the potential in an underachieving horse. He´s had excuses in recent runs, notably sitting too close to an overly strong pace when finishing behind a few of these in both the Northumberland Plate and the John Smith´s Cup. This time, though, he enjoyed a much better trip,travelling well under patient tactics and producing a sustained challenge to lead late on. It was a fine ride from Dale Swift.
Last year - Moyenne Corniche (10), Age 6, Wgt 8 - 13, SP 25/1 - D Swift / B Ellison
They raced up the middle of the track in the closing stages and for the sixth consecutive running the winner was drawn in double figures, but considering the full result it´s hard to argue there was a bias. The pace seemed fair, with Tactician taking them along in a clear lead and having enough left to keep on for second, while the winner was well behind early. .MOYENNE CORNICHE was hard to fancy with confidence considering his only previous win from 24 starts came in a maiden back in 2008, but this was only his eighth run since joining Brian Ellison, evidently a trainer extremely capable at unlocking the potential in an underachieving horse. He´s had excuses in recent runs, notably sitting too close to an overly strong pace when finishing behind a few of these in both the Northumberland Plate and the John Smith´s Cup. This time, though, he enjoyed a much better trip,travelling well under patient tactics and producing a sustained challenge to lead late on. It was a fine ride from Dale Swift.
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-7-12
4yo: 2-12-80
5yo: 5-7-61
6yo+: 2-1-33
7yo+: 0-3-16
3 year olds have the best record, having won 2 of the 11 runnings from less than 8% of the total runners and 8 of their 12 runners in past 10 runnings made the frame.
5 year olds have won 5 of last 10 runnings from approximately 28.8% of the runners.
In the last 30 years, there have only been 2 winners aged older than 5.
You have to go back to 1979 and the great Sea Pigeon for last winner aged 7+.
Weights
Horses carrying 8-13 or more: 3-20-121
Horses carrying 8-12 or less: 7-10-81
Only 3 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory, all 3 posted a career high RPR of 107+ on their last start, 2 were running under a penalty for winning a race at Glorious Goodwood.
Horses carrying a penalty: 3-4-25
Claimers (2-1-15) have ridden 2 of the last 3 winners of the Ebor.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-9-46
Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-20-125
Horses rated 91 or less: 3-1-31
7 of 10 winners (last 4) have been officially rated between 92 and 102.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better on last flat start (both exceptions won a class 3)
9 of 10 winners posted highest RPR of last 12 months in their last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days
8 of 10 winners had won a race that year (2 others placed in listed or group race that year)
9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or better (exception finished 2nd in a group 3)
8 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 4F+ (2 exceptions placed in a class 1 race over 1M 4F+)
4 of 10 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood last time
2 of 10 winners ran in a 2M class 2 handicap at Ascot last time
2 of 10 winners ran at the Galway Festival last time
Other Races
Toyo Tires Performance Stakes winner (Motivado): 01360 (1-1-5)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Hurricane Higgins): 1 (1-0-1)
Queen Mother's Cup winner (Crackentorp): 01 (1-0-2)
November Handicap winner (Zuider Zee): 20 (0-1-2)
Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Cambourne): 306 (0-1-3)
Investec Zebra Handicap winner (Fiery Lad): 06 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Melrose Stakes winner (Parlour Games): 88 (0-0-2)
32Red.com Handicap winner (Life And Soul): 00 (0-0-2)
Shergar Cup Stayers winner (Address Unknown): 60000 (0-0-5)
Old Newton Cup winner (Number Theory): 050090 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 415
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 00
4 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot that season
4 of 10 winners finished in first 4 at Glorious Goodwood last time out
Trainers
Luca Cumani (2-1-6) has won the race three times since 1999 and 4 of his 6 runners in past 10 years have made the first 5 home.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-5) does particularly well with his 3yos. The four 3yos he has saddled in the last 10 runnings have finished 1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.
Brian Ellison (1-1-5) & Willie Mullins (1-0-4) have both saddled the winner in past 3 years.
Michael Stoute (0-3-9) and James Fanshawe (0-2-4) have both saddled multiple placed- finishers.
Irish-trained runners (3-4-17) have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 8% of the total runners. They have done particularly well recently, filling the runners-up spot in 2007, the first 2 home in 2009 and the 1st & 4th in 2010.
Draw
Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 8-7-70
Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 1-10-62
Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 1-13-70
8 of 10 winners were drawn in the highest 7 stalls
Racing Tactics
9 of 10 winners (last 8) were held up in midfield or rear
Price
No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 4 of the winners going off 14/1 or shorter and the other 6 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.
Favourites (1-4-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 to 5
· Carrying 8-12 or less (or carrying a penalty for a Glorious Goodwood win)
· Officially rated 92 to 102
· Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs
· Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts
· Won a race this season
· Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days
· Had last run at Goodwood, Ascot or Galway
· Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)
· Won at class 3 level or higher
· Won over 1M 4F+ (or placed in a class 1 race over 1M 4F+)
· Drawn in highest 7 stalls
· Hold up horses favoured
· Trained by Luca Cumani or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo
Of the Irish runners who are within the trends its quite amazing to see an Obrien horse Harrison's Cave out around the 20/1 market price has won going away in a 1m5f race at Navan on soft ground is a 4yr old colt by Galileo carrying 8-11 - take a look at the ascot handicap over 1m4f fast finishing third behind Cambourne (currenly 8/1)and Hamerfest currently 11/1) only 3l beaten by Cambourne and 1/2l by Hamerfest he can easily reverse those placings - The run in that race also highlights the decent effort of Alkimos first time cheek pieces (high chapparal colt) currently 28/1 and ridden by Da Sousa.
Taking last years winner into account - look at the chances of Goldie horse Icon Dream who ran a cracker in the heavy ground Johns Smith cup on its first run for Goldie (todays favvy well beaten that Day - Motivado was well back).
Royal Diamond from Ireland gets in here light and a very dark horse has a very high weight increase since its last win though
Qahriman holds the best chances on stats age and improver at the bottom of the handicap course form is very good and long layoff for stayer - Will Take my chances on multiple place betting on Icon Dream and Alkimos. with a watching brief for a bet in running on Harrisons Cave!
Good luck to my ole mate Mark Marvell who is going to have the day there on track -
"make it something Special Mark"
Bob
No comments:
Post a Comment