The Juddmonte International Stakes is the highlight of day 1 of York’s Ebor meeting, Wednesday 22nd August. It’s a group 1 run over 1M 2½F for 3yos and this year’s renewal will see Frankel race over a trip in excess of a mile for the very first time. With York being abandoned in 2008, this race was run at Newmarket, but from a trends point of view we will focus on the last 10 runnings at York.
Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings (2001- 2011):
Age
3yo: 2-3-22
4yo: 5-5-28
5yo: 2-5-17
6yo+: 1-0-4
4yos have won 5 of last 10 from 39.4% of total runners
The three winners aged 3 since 2000 were Sea The Stars (Derby & 2000 Guineas winner), Authorized (Derby winner) and Giant’s Causeway (runner-up in English & Irish 2000 Guineas). All 3 were multiple group 1-winners.
Last year Twice Over became the first ever horse aged older than 5 to win the race. He had finished runner-up in the previous year’s race and last year’s renewal failed to include any 3yo runners, as does this year's.
Gender
Fillies/mares (0-1-5) have filled 1 place from 5 runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had won a race that year (2 exceptions were placed in a group 1 that year)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception finished 2nd in Eclipse & 4th in Derby)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (two exceptions were 2nd in a group 1)
Gender
Fillies/mares (0-1-5) have filled 1 place from 5 runners.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had won a race that year (2 exceptions were placed in a group 1 that year)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception finished 2nd in Eclipse & 4th in Derby)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (two exceptions were 2nd in a group 1)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Twice Over): 33 (0-1-2)
Eclipse winner (Nathaniel): 31312 (2-2-5)
Previous season's QEII winner (Frankel): 1 (1-0-1)
York Stakes winner (Sri Putra): 1 (1-0-1)
Sussex Stakes winner (Frankel): 2 (0-1-1)
Lockinge winner (Frankel): 3 (0-1-1)
Queen Anne winner (Frankel): 37 (0-1-2)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 141221
4 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 4545
3 of 10 winners ran in the King George last time, finishing 253
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s Champion Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the Derby, finishing 11
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 21
Trainers
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-8) has won the race twice since 2001.
Henry Cecil (1-2-3) trained the 1st & 2nd last year, the 2nd in 2010, the 1st & 3rd in 1999 and also the runner-up at the rescheduled running at Newmarket.
Aidan O’Brien (1-1-17) has saddled 7 runners priced shorter than 4/1 and only two have made the frame. He has also been responsible for three beaten favourites.
2 of the 4 French-trained runners since 2001 have been placed though there has been no French-trained winner since 1987.
Price
9 of 10 winners went off shorter than 6/1
The highest price winner of this in the last 10 years was Notnowcato in 2006 at 8/1.
Favourites (5-1-10) have won 5 of last 10 at York and show a level stakes profit of 1.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Run at least twice this season
· Won or placed last time, posting an RPR of 117+
· Won over 1M 2F+
· Won a group 1
· Finished in the first 2 in the Eclipse Stakes
· Ran in the Prince of Wales and/or the King George
· Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor or Henry Cecil
Priced shorter than 6/1
It will take a brave punter to back against Frankel he is a giant player and looks all over a horse that can win over this extended distance for him.
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