The Darley Yorkshire Oaks is the highlight of day 2 of York’s Ebor meeting on Thursday 23rd August. Run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares, this race is the first chance for the older horses to take on the classic generation over the Oaks trip. Older horses must concede 10lbs to their younger rivals. This has to be a sub standard renewal of the race with only the 7 runners and the top candidates withdrawn because of the ground.
Sir Henry Cecil won with a horse carrying the 9-07 (Midday 11/4) and Gosden with Dar Ra Mi (11/2) his runner today is a three year old without the penalty The Fugue
Sir Henry Cecil won with a horse carrying the 9-07 (Midday 11/4) and Gosden with Dar Ra Mi (11/2) his runner today is a three year old without the penalty The Fugue
Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings at York (2001-2011):
Age
3yo: 5-12-54
4yo: 4-5-23
5yo+: 1-0-5
5 of 10 winners were aged 4+ despite them only representing 34.1% of the total runners.
3 of the 4 four-year-olds to have won the race in the past 10 runnings had run in it the year before (finishing 1st, 4th and 2nd).
4 of 5 winnings 3yos won the Irish Oaks or Nassau Stakes last time
Recent Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions were placed in a group 2, other was unplaced in the Eclipse)
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in a group 1 or 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season (exception had won race previous year and both starts that season were against the colts)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had won a group 2, other was 3rd in Ribblesdale on only previous run in group company)
6 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at York (other 4 had yet to run at the track)
Other Races
Horses placed in Irish Oaks: 489674053 (0-1-9)
Nassau Stakes winner (The Fugue): 111 (3-0-3)
Musidora Stakes winner (The Fugue): 1422 (1-2-4)
Epsom Oaks winner (Was): 474122 (1-2-6)
Previous season's Montrose Fillies Stakes winner (Coquet): 1 (1-0-1)
Height of Fashion Stakes winner (Coquet): 822 (0-2-3)
Blue Wind Stakes winner (Princess Highway): 3R55 (0-1-4)
4 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 8124 Was won from - Shirroco Star -The Fugue and Coquete
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Irish Oaks, finishing 111 winner is NR and that brings Shirroco Star into the picture big time
4 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora as a 3yo, finishing 1112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Nassau Stakes last time, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Middleton Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 10 winnes ran in the Pretty Polly, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Breeders Cup Filly/Mare Turf, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Prix de Royallieu, 83
5 of the last 7 winners aged 3 had won the Irish Oaks that season horses placed in the Irish Oaks have a very poor record, gaining 0 wins and just 1 place from 9 runners since 2001. However with the non running of Great Heavens do not simply overlook the 2nd place runner Shirroco Star - its second in the derby also lends weight to big run from the filly today with Hughes taking the ride - is completely at home on good to firm ground which it has not had since its win at newbury last back end.
Trainers
British trained runners: 7-14-55
Irish trained runners: 2-1-19
German/Italian trained runners: 1-1-4
French trained runners: 0-1-4
Aidan O’Brien (2-1-11) has won 2 of the last 5 runnings of this race at York.
Henry Cecil (1-2-3) and John Gosden (1-2-4) have each trained the winner and 2 placed finishers in the past 10 runnings.
Ed Dunlop (0-1-3) & Michael Bell (0-1-4) have each saddled the runner-up in past 3 years.
Price
The last 9 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter
Super Tassa at 25/1 in 2001 has been the only real shock in the past 10 renewals, all other winners came from first 3 in the betting.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.63.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 that won the Irish Oaks or Nassau Stakes last time
· Aged 4+ that finished in first 4 in this race in 2011
· Run at least twice in 2012
· Won last time out
· Posted an RPR of 107+ in a group 1 or 2 last time
· Won over 1M 2F+
· Previously won a group 1
· Previously finished 1st or 2nd at York (or having first run here)
· Nassau Stakes or Pretty Polly winner
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden or Henry Cecil
· From first 3 in the betting
So if you have read this far you will see my leaning towards Shirroco Star currently 4th in the betting - she is well up to winning this race on ground she favours and a track that will suite her have taken the 9.6 for a decent bet
at time of writing the field is down to 6 runners with the withdrawal of Wild Coco
Result - disaster the rain that swept the track just before and during was like a cold bath power shower - going was no better than g/soft (still given as good)
I posted this on racing Twits - I see your reason for being Sweet On Shareta because Arc and Snow Fairy franks her form - beating Galikova was no mean feat either! but her form to me is for cut and the french dont have the best record here - worthy of a saver though in my book. Bible Belt is very good and Harrington bring one here is a plus but Big bad bob filly and has never done well over further than 1m2f -running this ground twice and winning once over 1m2f -
The But for Shirocco is she did not win the Irish oaks - but will forgive her that because of the soft ground!
So if you have read this far you will see my leaning towards Shirroco Star currently 4th in the betting - she is well up to winning this race on ground she favours and a track that will suite her have taken the 9.6 for a decent bet
at time of writing the field is down to 6 runners with the withdrawal of Wild Coco
Result - disaster the rain that swept the track just before and during was like a cold bath power shower - going was no better than g/soft (still given as good)
I posted this on racing Twits - I see your reason for being Sweet On Shareta because Arc and Snow Fairy franks her form - beating Galikova was no mean feat either! but her form to me is for cut and the french dont have the best record here - worthy of a saver though in my book. Bible Belt is very good and Harrington bring one here is a plus but Big bad bob filly and has never done well over further than 1m2f -running this ground twice and winning once over 1m2f -
The But for Shirocco is she did not win the Irish oaks - but will forgive her that because of the soft ground!
and what happened it poured and the french horse reveled in the conditions - such is racing and the folly of selecting a horse way to early in the current weather /ground
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