The Great Voltigeur Stakes takes place on Wednesday, on the opening day of the York Ebor meeting. A group 2, run over a mile and a half for 3yos only, it is generally considered as one of the best trials for the final classic of the year, the St Leger, with Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno all pulling off the double since 2000.
Below we take a look at trends for past 10 renewals (2001-2011):
Age
Race for 3yos
Breeding
9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 9.9+
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner (exception was by multiple graded winner in USA)
Weight
Horses who have won a group 2 race in 2012 receive a 3lb penalty. Since 2001 nine runners have run under a 3lb penalty and all 9 have been beaten & just 3 made the places.
The prices of the 10 runners to attempt to carry a penalty have been Evens, 5/2, 11/4, 3/1, 4/1, 4/1, 9/2, 8/1 & 12/1.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 109+ last time (exception won maiden on last start)
7 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F+ (2 of 3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a group 1 over 1M 2F+)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a listed or group race (2 exceptions were trained by Michael Stoute, both run once and won once that season)
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1
0 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby (Main Sequence): 217128113 (4-3-9)
Gordon Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 12275 (1-2-5)
Newmarket Stakes winner (Noble Mission): 421 (1-1-3)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Shantaram): 1 (1-0-1)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Main Sequence): 14 (1-0-2)
King Edward VII winner (Thomas Chippendale): 268935 (0-2-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 8243
3 of 10 winners ran in the King Edward VII, finishing 492
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Derby, finishing 46
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 24
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (2-7-17) trained the winner in 2001 & 2003 and has saddled a placed finisher in each of last 2 renewals. Record of his first string reads 11336223 (2-3-8).
Mahmood Al Zarooni (1-0-2) trained Rewilding to win this in 2010.
John Gosden (1-0-5) trained the winner in 2007 and also the winner of the rearranged race at Goodwood in 2008.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The 2 winners since 2001 to go off bigger than 6/1 were Youmzain in 2006 at 12/1 and Monitor Closely in 2009 at 28/1.
Favourites (3-5-10) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings at York but show a level stakes loss of 3.32.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by group 1-winner with a stamina index of 9.9f+
· Finished in the first 3 last time out, posting RPR of 109+
· Won over 1M 2F+ (or placed at group level over 1M 2F+)
· Finished in first 3 in a group race
· Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby to run in does well
· Finished in first 4 in Dante and/or King Edward VII
· Trained by O’Brien, Gosden or Al Zarooni
· From first 3 in the betting
AM CONVINCED AS GOOD AS MAIN SEQUENCE IS HE IS NOT THE WINNER OF THIS RACE
Result 1 Thought Worthy 9/1
2 Main Sequence 13/8 Fav
The note ref the weight in the above was the one that came good again (Since 2001 nine runners have run under a 3lb penalty and all 9 have been beaten & just 3 made the places.)
Thomas Chippendale looks very coltish and is off my list as likely winner
