http://www.skysports.com/video/inline/0,26691,19978_7786614,00.html
only time I have not been to this meeting in 73 years is 5 (yep went there as a babe in arms when the whole family went there from Monday onward's) I am one of the old school - but the truth is the calmest horse with ability and stamina wins the races and the horse that cannot take the hurly burly will lose. Race hardened Jockeys cannot get the horse home if its already sweated buckets getting to the post.
The Investec Oaks takes place on Friday 1st June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets recently with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008 and Dancing Rain at 20/1 last year landing the prize.
2yo Form
E B F "Makfi" Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (The Fugue): 01 (1-0-2)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Maybe): 245 (0-1-3)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Maybe): 50 (0-0-2)
Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile winner: 64 (0-0-2)
Highest finisher from Fillies' Mille to run in this: 016916040 (2-0-9)
Debutante Stakes winner (Maybe): 45 (0-0-2)
Montrose Stakes winner (Coquet): 684 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 22
3yo Form
Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Vow): 801541 (2-0-6)
Height Of Fashion Stakes winner (Coquet): 622716 (1-2-6)
Musidora Stakes winner (The Fugue): 8338516 (1-2-7)
Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Kailani): 0510000 (1-0-7)
Irish 1000 Guineas winner: 2 (0-1-1)
Salsabil Stakes winner (Kissed): 257 (0-1-3)
Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Vow): 779029 (0-1-6)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
The last 8 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)
Other 2 winners ran in English 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 16
Price
8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, though 2 of the last 4 winners have been priced between 20/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (4-2-11) have a good recent record in this having won 4 of the last 10 and showing a level stakes profit of 2.71 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2
· Dosage Index of around 1.06
· Centre of Distribution of around 0.10
· Had 1 or 2 runs this season
· Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR -MR last time
· Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
· Won over 1M+
· Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
· Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial
· Finished in first 2 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo
· Trained by Henry Cecil or William Haggas
· Favourite does well
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The Investec Derby takes place on Saturday 2nd June and this year’s race will see Camelot look to emulate the achievement of Sea The Stars in 2009, by winning both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 118+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions not run in a group 1 as a 2yo)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners had first run as a 2yo over 7F or 8F (7 of 9 at a group 1 track)
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 39 times before winning the race. In those 39 starts they had finished outside first 3 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on first run as 2yo.
2yo Form
Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 106116 (3-0-6)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh
3yo Form
Dante Stakes winner (Bonfire): 391101203 (3-3-9)
2000 Guineas winner (Camelot): 01 (1-0-2)
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 247011045 (2-1-9)
Dee Stakes winners (Astrology): 15080 (1-0-5)
Chester Vase winner (Mikdaam): 566054502 (0-1-9)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Main Sequence): 804093670 (0-1-9)
4 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112
3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221
Price
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.
Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.50 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
· Montjeu’s progeny do well
· Born before 07/04/2009
· Dosage index of around 1.15
· Centre of Distribution of around 0.24
· Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
· Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)
· Run once or twice in 2012
· Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)
· Had run in the past 35 days
· Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
· Posted an RPR of 118+ last time
· Previously on a group race
· Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
· Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo
· Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
· Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as 3yo
· Priced 6/1 or below
Good Luck all - the rest of the card on both days is well worth getting up for
Bob
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