The Investec Oaks Friday 31st May 2013

The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 31st May. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in past 5 years with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008, Dancing Rain at 20/1 in 2011 & Was, last year at 20/1, all landing the prize.

Breeding

British bred: 4-9-53

Irish bred: 4-7-52

American bred: 2-3-14

German bred: 0-0-2

UAE bred: 0-0-1

Japanese bred: 0-0-1

9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (exception’s sire retired after 3 runs but was fancied for the Triple Crown races in USA

 Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 7 career starts

10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season

9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time

 only 5 of 10 winners won last time out (4 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial & other was 6th in the 1000 Guineas)

9 of 10 winners achieved their highest Dataform MR last time out

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+

2yo Form

Saxon-Gate.com EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Secret Gesture): 2 (0-1-1)

May Hill Stakes winner (Certify): 364 (0-1-3)Highest finisher from Fillies' Mile to run in this: 16916040 (2-0-8)   2 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 22 

Moth Finished 2l 3rd  Roz finished 10th 

 3yo Form

Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Banoffee): 015414 (2-0-6)

Height Of Fashion Stakes winner: 227166 (1-2-6)

Musidora Stakes winner (Liber Nauticus): 3385163 (1-3-7)

Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial winner: 1043 (1-1-4)

Cheshire Oaks winner (Banoffee): 0610042 (1-1-7)

Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Talent): 5100007 (1-0-7)

Irish 1000 Guineas winner: 2 (0-1-1)

Salsabil Stakes winner: 257 (0-1-3)

Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Secret Gesture): 7790294 (0-1-7)

1000 Guineas winner: 444 (0-0-3)

Blue Wind Stakes winner: 405 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Swettenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognized Oaks trial (Musidora,

 (Pretty Polly, Talent)  Lingfield Secret Gesture) or Cheshire Oaks Gertrude Versed)

2 exceptions were 6th in 1000 Guineas and 3rd in Blue Wind Stakes on previous start

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (2-7-34) has won the race twice in the past 10 years though he his runners have represented 27.6% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-5-10.

Ed Dunlop (2-0-3) trained the winner in 2004 & 2010 from just 3 runners in past 10 renewals.

Henry Cecil (1-1-5) has won the race 8 times in the past 30 years, most recently with Light Shift in 2007.

William Haggas (1-0-2), Michael Bell, Ralph Beckett (1-0-4) & Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-5) have also saddled the winner in past 10 years.

John Gosden (0-2-6) has saddled a placed finisher in each of last 2 runnings.

David Elsworth (0-1-1), Hughie Morris (0-1-2), John Oxx (0-1-2), Jim Bolger (0-1-4) & Michael Stoute (0-1-5) have all been responsible for 1 placed finisher in last 10 years.

Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-9-41, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-7.

 Price

7 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, though 3 of the last 5 winners have been priced between 20/1 and 33/1.

Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.62 since 2003.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2
• Dosage Index of around 1.24
• Centre of Distribution of around 0.21
• Had 1 or 2 runs this year
• Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high MR Datform rating last time
• Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
• Won over 1M+
• Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
• Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
• Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial
• Finished in first 2 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo
• Trained by Ed Dunlop, Aidan O’Brien or Henry Cecil

Ok its still raining and Im getting ready to go off today to see my old mates on the track  Im in two minds as to what is too big a price and have a sneaky that Beckets horses could upset the apple cart this year -  Talent and  Secret Gesture (Crowely has ridden both and opted for Hidden Gesture  its the weather that will determine just what I back on the day

 but his two animals are in with big shouts as is Gertrude Versed for  Gosden who will appreciate the going getting softer and softer  

Joker in the pack 

Dont forget the absolute mud  lover The Lark if the ground comes up bottomless first foal of a 1m6f Listed winning half-sister to dual Oaks winner Sariska was a fascinating contender stepped up in trip on her reappearance but the steady pace did not play to her strengths and she had to settle for a staying-on third. However, this lightly raced type still has plenty of potential over middle-distances and should be much more potent the strong gallop.

 Good Luck all

 Bob

 

Saturday 25th May

Its tuff at the top of the naps table 

Standings May 2013
Tipster	Wins	Runs	Strike	LSP	POE
John	6	9	67%	+18.21	+202%
roberttaylor03	2	17	12%	+16.00	+94%
Geoffrey	11	18	61%	+14.19	+79%
Martyn	6	13	46%	+13.23	+102%

John had a very good winner yesterday but its all up to play for 

 so where do I go to find something to get past him? (without someone else zooming up the leader board)

 9 weeks free subscription is a powerful incentive!

am looking at a few with  a wary eye on the weather - animal in my focus is Aloof in the 3.55 Curragh fillies mile  surely the ground cannot get significantly worse? 

Alloof is largely unconsidered  in the market,.but Has the pedigree, out of the speedy Airwave who scored in this;  she is a winner of three races and distance and ground right uquite adaptable trip-wise, often making the running; left for dead on seasonal return by Caponata (The ground will be too fast for that one today and dont expect it to run.) She was on her sesonal return and looked good till running out of puff .She runs so well on good ground and has form around here in good races on soft and g/soft ground I will be taking the early price but it depends on NO rain to make her my nap. You have to say that Chigun is the only filly that has recorded a faster time and trained by Cecil is the one Aloof has to beat BUT my Sire focus gives Aloof the edge - Galileo bred against (Chigun Oasis bred) and of course  La Collina  when giving the high-class Maybe a fright in a steadily-run Group 3 at Leopardstown  exhibiting a useful turn of foot; should prove effective at this shorter trip

Greenland stakes Curragh 2.45

 won by Tiddliwinks last year out of stall 2  carrying a massive 10stone  and brit trained runners have won 7 of the last 10 running's  and the winner has been 8/1 or less with a loss on the favvy looking for a low drawn horse that has had a couple of runs and won at 6flngs looks the way to be going along with a good run at this track  That to me means there are big positives for  Reply who is drawn 2 has good runs under its belt (apart from last time out on g/frm Was 100/1 that day folks so not an O'Brien fancy- shorten in the market significantly and will be selected but 

Its hard to get away from Marreck as the form horse of the race with the profile of previous winners and is my selection beaten into 5th at york but will strip better today out of this box  Non Runner!!!!!

 Good luck today guys will be on twitter late for my thoughts and bets for Ffoss and Cartmel

Bob

The JLT Lockinge Stakes 18th May 2013

The JLT Lockinge Stakes is the big race today Saturday 18th May, a group 1 run over a mile at Newbury. Last year’s race was won by the mighty Frankel but this year’s renewal looks far more open and will be contested by many horses that were forced to play second fiddle to Frankel last year.

  Not Much time to give the full stats today sorry guys

Gender

Fillies/mares (3-0-8) have gained 3 win from just 8 runners in this. All 3 female winners have won a group over a mile the previous year. 2 of the 3 were trained by Michael Stoute.

10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from the first 4 in the betting.

Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with last 10 winners going off at single figure odds.

Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 8.56.

Trainers

Richard Hannon (2-1-9) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners of this race.

Henry Cecil (1-3-6) trained Frankel to win it last year and has also seen 3 of his 5 other runners make the places.

Saeed Bin Suroor (1-2-7) has trained the winner and 2 close seconds from 7 runners since 2003.

Aidan O’Brien (1-1-7) saddled Hawk Wing to win it in 2003 and Excelebration to finish 2nd last year.

Michael Bell (1-0-1) & John Gosden (1-0-3) have both also trained the winner in past 10 years.

 Draw -  it is more important to be drawn low for any advantage in a field this size  giving Fahhr and declaration of war at least 2 points  and an outsider  Libbrano riden by Fallon for Hannon 

 Funny enough the race won by Trumpet major at sandown does not prove verry effective form guide for the winner  but the place horses do run well here into big place money 

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 (or a multiple group 1 winner aged 5 or 6)

·         Fillies & mares do well

·         Won over a mile or further

·         Previously won a group 1 

·         Having first run of 2013 or ran in Bet365 Mile

·         Officially rated 113 or higher

·         Course winner or having first run at Newbury

·         Finished in first 2 in last season’s QEII and/or Sussex Stakes

·         Finished in first 3 in 2012 St James Palace, Greenham and/or a 2000 Guineas

·         From the first 4 in the betting

·         Trained by Richard Hannon or Henry Cecil

  there have been massive vibes for Declaraion of war  and to some extent Beauty Parlour  so if you fancy them they do hold the stats - 

I am in the place market for this race as I feel too many have shown they are nearly horses and mainly under value  - so the animal that attracts me for betfair value is Chil The Kite who runs its best races second time out - simply ran out of puff at sandown Bet365 Mile coming for a brill run to lose it up the hill (had not run for 176 days  the animal bred for fast ground and a mile is blinkered for the first time today does not have a great draw but its blinding turn of foot for a horse that comes from behind means to me the price will fall quickly at the off and if the blinkers help will drop to a lay price for the get out stakes 

 Good luck all 

may the gods of lil punters be with you

 Bob

Others for Saturday 11th may 2013

 Decent enough cards today some others you may like to watch in the market 

1.50 haydock - Orsippus  hs a lot going for it now upped to 3miles - need a turn of speed and flat breds seem to dominate this race.
 2.45  Nottingham Dark lane won so easy last time and still well in

3.30 Haydock - again its the flat breds that do well this race and Hemmings owned runner Deep Sand  was better on the flat without cut and it hasnt had it as good as this over hdles - no 4 yr old has won this race in last 10 years so I will be watching for  a BTl - but the 6yr old Local Hero  will relish the ground and on its third run back this term is a massive price for a horse that meets the profile of past winners so well 

 Hopefully will be able to join you on twitter this afternoon - look forwards to chatting with you there

 Bob

Betfred Victoria Cup saturday 11th may 2013

The big handicap today Saturday 11th May is the Betfred Victoria Cup at Ascot, a class 2 heritage handicap run over 7 furlongs. It always attracts a big field and the draw can often make a big difference. In 2005 the race was run at Lingfield.

Going - There doesn't appear any difference walking it. The GoingStick doesn't indiciate any advantage and I don't anticipate any side being advantageous - it's where the pace is," said clerk of the course Chris Stickels. ( 9 am Saturday morning)

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 5-10-85

5yo: 3-10-75

6yo: 1-5-42

7yo+: 1-5-42

8 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5

Horses aged 6+ have managed 2 wins from 84 runners (34.4% of total runners) in past 10 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 2-15-94

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-11-84

Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-4-66

8 of 10 winners carried 8-5 to 8-13

Top weight: 2947000006 (0-2-10)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 98 or higher: 1-9-58

Horses rated 90 to 97: 6-19-129

Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-2-57

7 of the last 8 winners have been officially rated between 88 and 96.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners had run once / twice that year

9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or higher last time

9 of 10 winners won over 7F or further

7 of 10 winners won a race worth 9K+

8 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher

7 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps (2 of 3 exceptions post an RPR of 103+ on previous start)

Other Races

Previous season's winner: 4400 (0-2-4)

Spring Cup H'cap winner (Haaf A Sixpence): 4 (0-1-1)

Racing To School Handicap winner (Monsieur Chevalier): 4 (0-1-1)

Betfred The Bonus King H'cap winner (Tartiflette): 52 (0-1-2)

Longines Handicap winner (Redvers): 300 (0-1-3)

Record of horses placed in previous Bunbury Cup: 0184100 (2-1-7) (Jamsie  fin 6th)

Record of first 4 from Spring Cup: 7410001 (2-1-7) Haaf A Sxpence won and Dream Tune a very good 5th

 Horses that perform very well on a Cim track  should be noted - Last years winner Bonnie Brae for example was top Cim 

Draw (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)

Horses drawn 1 to 9: 5-13-81

Horses drawn 10 to 19: 2-12-90

Horses drawn 21 or higher: 2-2-55

No very strong trends on the draw though in past 10 years, though 11 of 16 places in past 4 renewals were filled by horses drawn 1 to 9.

Racing Tactics (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)

7 of 9 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

Only 2 winners of the race at Ascot since 2003 raced prominently throughout.

Price

No very strong trend on prices with 6 of 10 winners coming from first 3 in the betting and the other 4 winners priced 14/1 or bigger.

Favourites (3-2-11) have gained 3 wins in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 or 5

·         Carrying 8-5 to 8-13

·         officially rated 88 to 99

·         Run no more than twice in 2013

·         Ran a class 2 or higher last time out in past 40 days

·         posted an RPR of 95+ last time out

·         Won over 7F+

·         Won a class 3 or higher worth 9K+

·         Placed in 2012 Bunbury Cup and/or 2013 Spring Cup

·         Tends to be held up

·          Horses drawn 1 to 9 favoured

Conclusion (for me )

Dream Tune has the class - my notebook - good run in the spring cup 200413 Dream Tune, returning to a mile, made the running and did not drop away once headed. He should be better for that run  performs to this level consistently and has speed as well as staying power.. worry is the claimer but a good ground sired individual drawn 2 - he seems to need this rail on his right and the predicted ground is right up his street
Haaf a Sixpence  ran a stormer in the spring cup to win well - is drawn the other side of the track in 19 was ridden more positively having proven his stamina. He was in front around 3f from home but found plenty for pressure and scored a shade comfortably in the end. He has gone up again for that

 Good Luck All

Bob

Stanjames.com Chester Cup, 8th may 2013

 Stanjames.com Chester Cup, first run in 1824, takes place today Wednesday 8th May and is the highlight of the Chester Festival. It is a class 2 Heritage Handicap, run over 2 miles, 2 furlongs and 147 yards and in recent years horses that have been hurdling over the winter have done well.
 There has been some rain this morning but the clerk says it will remain g/frm all round

6yo: 4-7-44

Ages of winners has been fairly well spread out though there has been no winner aged older than 7 in last 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 8-11 or more: 8-16-83

Official Ratings

9 of 10 winners of the race were officially rated 90 to 103  

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won over 2M+ (exception won over 1M 6F, had only 1 run over 2M+)

9 of 10 winners (last 8) were having their first flat start of the season

7 of 10 winners (last 4) had previously run in 4 to 9 flat handicaps

5 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a race at Chester (4 of 5 exceptions having first course start)

5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) had 3 or 4 hurdles starts that calendar year

Other races

Record of horses finished in first 4 in previous Northumberland Plate: 11133710 (4-2-8)

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 6-17-80

Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-13-87

Horses drawn 8 or below are slightly favoured but, with the length of the race, Chester’s draw bias does not have quite the same effect in this as it does in the sprints.

Tactics

7 of 10 winners raced prominently

2 of 10 winners raced in midfield

1 of 10 winners was held up

Horses that raced close to the pace are favored.

Price

No strong trends on the prices, the last 4 winners were sent off at odds of between 11/2 to 10/1 however the previous 4 winners were priced between 16/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (2-3-12) have won the race twice in the past decade, giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 7

·         Carrying 8-11 to 9-6

·         Officially rated 90 to 103

·         Won over 2M+

·         Won a class 2 or higher

·         Run in fewer than 10 flat handicaps

·         Having first flat start this year

·         Ran over hurdles in 2013

·         Previous won or placed at Chester (or having first run here)

·         Previously finished in first 6 in a Chester Cup

·         Finished in first 4 in 2012 Northumberland Plate

·         Ran in 2012 Ebor and/or Cesarewitch Handicap

·         Tends to race prominently

Last year this race was won by Ile De Ray  6yr old out of the 13 box carrying 8-11 its last run had been in a hdles race at Sandown of a mark of 124 having won its last 2 races over hdles. It had won a flat race worth 14K   it is well worth looking to see a similar pattern in this years line up 

you dont have to look very hard to see the similar profile of Tominator who contested the same Sandown races this year off a mark of 130 Note also Tominator won around here over 1m6f on good ground and today has the same 60 day layoff as Ile De Ray and damn me it is drawn 11 where Ile De Ray was drawn 13  it has won a flat race worth 19K (only Simenon has won a higher value flat race) though he is carrying a welter weight of 9-10

 For you guys who dont get the racing post  - here is their summary 

There are a lot of positives for COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (nap) who can be ridden prominently and whose jockey has a better chance than most of finding his preferred position in the race given the low draw. Drawn alongside him, Justification has potential but also a fair amount to prove for a race like this and he has been disputing favouritism. Also on the shortlist isTominator, who is closely matched with the selection on their 2m2f Cesarewitch placings last October and should be able to travel through the race a lot more smoothly than many of his rivals. He has a double-figure draw, however, while Olympiad, who would have been interesting otherwise, is even further out. Buckland and Very Good Day are two with possibilities at longer odds.[Richard Austen]

 Good luck all 

 Bob

1000 Gns 05052013

!000 gns day and the ground is gonna be quick -am going back to the running of the Nell Qwynn Stakes analysis  With no standout candidate for the 1000 Guineas an impressive performance in this recognized trial was always going to cause a big reaction in the ante-post market, 

HOT SNAP delivered in style, catapulting herself to the top of bookmakers´ Guineas lists. The pace looked pretty strong (time was 0.45sec quicker than the Free Handicap) and the first two came from well back. (sired by a soft ground preference sire)

The winner, a half-sister to top-class filly Midday, came into the race with just an AW maiden win to her name, and early on she showed signs of greenness in last place, but once switched to the rail to follow the favorite through, she began to get the hang of things, and she quickened up smartly going into the Dip. She looks sure to appreciate a step up to a mile, and her trainer will have left plenty to work on, so there should be improvement come Guineas day. Her relative lack of experience might be the only concern for that race, as she´s now also proven on the track, and she´ll go there with leading claims. Longer term, there are reasons to believe she´ll get 1m4f on pedigree, but she´s clearly showing more speed than Midday did at three, and her owner´s racing manager concurred, suggesting that she might be more of a 1m-1m2f filly in the making.

Sky Lantern traveled strongly for a long way and were it not for Hot Snap, she would have been a taking winner under her Group 1 penalty. It´s hard to see her reversing form with the winner in the Guineas, especially with the extra furlong likely to bring out more improvement in Sir Henry Cecil´s filly. A really well bred filly who will love the ground and can really lay it down in these conditions and is the most prize winning filly by a long way - taking them on in ireland in the moyland £108K race  am not convinced with its run at newmarket and think place its most likely position (Peslier rides the stablemate Maureen who scoped dirty last year before resuming winning ways at Newbury)

Winning Express, runner-up in the Cheveley Park on her final start last year, showed she´s trained on and that she gets this trip. She was more prominent than the first two and had to overcome trouble in running, so there was plenty of encouragement to take from the race. . I am pretty well convinced she will stay and stay well to get the better of the other two - she was making an eye catching run when squeezed on both flanks and stalled - but the last 200 yd  she was faster and closing on the front two today she is drawn 2 so should be able to stay out of trouble bred for the ground fast. Currently at 29/1 on betfair she is a cracking each way bet she is as low as 16s  across the bookies generally 

The Nell Gwynn Stakes winner usually runs this race and record is one win from the last eight

No strong trends on prices though there have been a few upsets in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners going off at 16/1 or bigger and but for Jacqueline Quest’s disqualification, the last 4 winners would have been priced 20/1, 66/1, 16/1 & 25/1.

Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of last 6 & show a level stakes profit of 1.50 since 2003.

Qipco 2000 Guineas 4th May2013

The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket on today  4th May when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years, with 7 of the last 11 going to horses from Ireland

Breeding

British bred: 5-6-66

Irish bred: 4-11-68

American bred: 1-0-33

French bred: 0-3-4

6 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (2 other sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile & 2 others had won the Irish Derby).

8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 8F (2 exceptions by Galileo & Montjeu)

10 of 10 winners were born before 6th April

Recent Form

8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo ( Dawn Approach – Moohajim –Cristoforo Columbo  ( the only three in the line up )

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 86+ on debut

7 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket or Gowran Park

7 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (3 exceptions were unbeaten in 2 runs)

9 of 10 winners had won 2 or more races

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)

10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later

7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (3 exceptions posted it on penultimate start)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time

9 of 10 winners had won at group level (exception placed in a group 2)

6 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (4 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial)

9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F

3 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 6 were having first run here)

2yo Races

National Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 10512570 (2-1-8)

Dewhurst Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 48221 (1-2-5)

Coventry Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 000130 (1-1-6)

Mill Reef Stakes winner (Moohaajim): 2009 (0-1-4)

Champagne Stakes winner (Toronado): 0204 (0-1-4)

Winkfield Stakes winner (Toronado): 40 (0-0-2)

Price

No strong trends on prices.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 10 (including last 2), giving a level stakes loss of 3.12.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a group 1 winner, that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas or won Irish Derby

·         Born before 07/04/2010

·         Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 86+

·         Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)

·         Previously won at least 2 races

·         Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)

·         Posted an RPR of 110+ last time

·         Having first run of the season (or won a Guineas trial)

·         Won a group race

·         Won the Dewhurst and/or National Stakes

·         Won over 7F or 8F

·       Trained in Ireland (especially by Aidan O’Brien)

Ok the trends say it’s a lay down for Dawn Approach and drawn well today only the faster ground is unknown – just about everything else is a positive  but and its not a very big but – what can run him close or beat him ? I make him only 3lbs ahead of Botti Runner Moohajim(-2 drawn) ( sired by Cape Cross – Sire of Sea The Stars)  and Toranado(+3 drawn) Garswood absolutely was swinging off the bit in his Newmarket run over 7flngs  in a handicap off of 106 – is better than a handicapper! Was aclear leader over 1flngs out laughing at the opposition?  

Tipster Challenge WINNER, April 2013.

Congratulations to JohnB, DataForm Tipster Challenge WINNER, April 2013. Well Done John B - you Duh man!

Tipster Challenge May 201301/05/13 to 31/05/13 Prize: 9 weeks membership for the tipster with the highest level-stakes profit (LSP) Join in at any time. Good Luck.