Stanjames.com Chester Cup, 8th may 2013

 Stanjames.com Chester Cup, first run in 1824, takes place today Wednesday 8th May and is the highlight of the Chester Festival. It is a class 2 Heritage Handicap, run over 2 miles, 2 furlongs and 147 yards and in recent years horses that have been hurdling over the winter have done well.
 There has been some rain this morning but the clerk says it will remain g/frm all round

6yo: 4-7-44

Ages of winners has been fairly well spread out though there has been no winner aged older than 7 in last 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 8-11 or more: 8-16-83

Official Ratings

9 of 10 winners of the race were officially rated 90 to 103  

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won over 2M+ (exception won over 1M 6F, had only 1 run over 2M+)

9 of 10 winners (last 8) were having their first flat start of the season

7 of 10 winners (last 4) had previously run in 4 to 9 flat handicaps

5 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a race at Chester (4 of 5 exceptions having first course start)

5 of 10 winners (5 of last 7) had 3 or 4 hurdles starts that calendar year

Other races

Record of horses finished in first 4 in previous Northumberland Plate: 11133710 (4-2-8)

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 6-17-80

Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-13-87

Horses drawn 8 or below are slightly favoured but, with the length of the race, Chester’s draw bias does not have quite the same effect in this as it does in the sprints.

Tactics

7 of 10 winners raced prominently

2 of 10 winners raced in midfield

1 of 10 winners was held up

Horses that raced close to the pace are favored.

Price

No strong trends on the prices, the last 4 winners were sent off at odds of between 11/2 to 10/1 however the previous 4 winners were priced between 16/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (2-3-12) have won the race twice in the past decade, giving a level stakes profit of 1.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 7

·         Carrying 8-11 to 9-6

·         Officially rated 90 to 103

·         Won over 2M+

·         Won a class 2 or higher

·         Run in fewer than 10 flat handicaps

·         Having first flat start this year

·         Ran over hurdles in 2013

·         Previous won or placed at Chester (or having first run here)

·         Previously finished in first 6 in a Chester Cup

·         Finished in first 4 in 2012 Northumberland Plate

·         Ran in 2012 Ebor and/or Cesarewitch Handicap

·         Tends to race prominently

Last year this race was won by Ile De Ray  6yr old out of the 13 box carrying 8-11 its last run had been in a hdles race at Sandown of a mark of 124 having won its last 2 races over hdles. It had won a flat race worth 14K   it is well worth looking to see a similar pattern in this years line up 

you dont have to look very hard to see the similar profile of Tominator who contested the same Sandown races this year off a mark of 130 Note also Tominator won around here over 1m6f on good ground and today has the same 60 day layoff as Ile De Ray and damn me it is drawn 11 where Ile De Ray was drawn 13  it has won a flat race worth 19K (only Simenon has won a higher value flat race) though he is carrying a welter weight of 9-10

 For you guys who dont get the racing post  - here is their summary 

There are a lot of positives for COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (nap) who can be ridden prominently and whose jockey has a better chance than most of finding his preferred position in the race given the low draw. Drawn alongside him, Justification has potential but also a fair amount to prove for a race like this and he has been disputing favouritism. Also on the shortlist isTominator, who is closely matched with the selection on their 2m2f Cesarewitch placings last October and should be able to travel through the race a lot more smoothly than many of his rivals. He has a double-figure draw, however, while Olympiad, who would have been interesting otherwise, is even further out. Buckland and Very Good Day are two with possibilities at longer odds.[Richard Austen]

 Good luck all 

 Bob