1000 Gns 05052013

!000 gns day and the ground is gonna be quick -am going back to the running of the Nell Qwynn Stakes analysis  With no standout candidate for the 1000 Guineas an impressive performance in this recognized trial was always going to cause a big reaction in the ante-post market, 

HOT SNAP delivered in style, catapulting herself to the top of bookmakers´ Guineas lists. The pace looked pretty strong (time was 0.45sec quicker than the Free Handicap) and the first two came from well back. (sired by a soft ground preference sire)

The winner, a half-sister to top-class filly Midday, came into the race with just an AW maiden win to her name, and early on she showed signs of greenness in last place, but once switched to the rail to follow the favorite through, she began to get the hang of things, and she quickened up smartly going into the Dip. She looks sure to appreciate a step up to a mile, and her trainer will have left plenty to work on, so there should be improvement come Guineas day. Her relative lack of experience might be the only concern for that race, as she´s now also proven on the track, and she´ll go there with leading claims. Longer term, there are reasons to believe she´ll get 1m4f on pedigree, but she´s clearly showing more speed than Midday did at three, and her owner´s racing manager concurred, suggesting that she might be more of a 1m-1m2f filly in the making.

Sky Lantern traveled strongly for a long way and were it not for Hot Snap, she would have been a taking winner under her Group 1 penalty. It´s hard to see her reversing form with the winner in the Guineas, especially with the extra furlong likely to bring out more improvement in Sir Henry Cecil´s filly. A really well bred filly who will love the ground and can really lay it down in these conditions and is the most prize winning filly by a long way - taking them on in ireland in the moyland £108K race  am not convinced with its run at newmarket and think place its most likely position (Peslier rides the stablemate Maureen who scoped dirty last year before resuming winning ways at Newbury)

Winning Express, runner-up in the Cheveley Park on her final start last year, showed she´s trained on and that she gets this trip. She was more prominent than the first two and had to overcome trouble in running, so there was plenty of encouragement to take from the race. . I am pretty well convinced she will stay and stay well to get the better of the other two - she was making an eye catching run when squeezed on both flanks and stalled - but the last 200 yd  she was faster and closing on the front two today she is drawn 2 so should be able to stay out of trouble bred for the ground fast. Currently at 29/1 on betfair she is a cracking each way bet she is as low as 16s  across the bookies generally 

The Nell Gwynn Stakes winner usually runs this race and record is one win from the last eight

No strong trends on prices though there have been a few upsets in recent years with 3 of the last 4 winners going off at 16/1 or bigger and but for Jacqueline Quest’s disqualification, the last 4 winners would have been priced 20/1, 66/1, 16/1 & 25/1.

Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of last 6 & show a level stakes profit of 1.50 since 2003.