The big handicap today Saturday 11th May is the Betfred Victoria Cup
at Ascot, a class 2 heritage handicap run over 7 furlongs. It always attracts a
big field and the draw can often make a
big difference. In 2005 the race was run at Lingfield.
Going - There doesn't appear any difference walking it. The GoingStick doesn't indiciate any advantage and I don't anticipate any side being advantageous - it's where the pace is," said clerk of the course Chris Stickels. ( 9 am Saturday morning)
Going - There doesn't appear any difference walking it. The GoingStick doesn't indiciate any advantage and I don't anticipate any side being advantageous - it's where the pace is," said clerk of the course Chris Stickels. ( 9 am Saturday morning)
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 5-10-85
5yo: 3-10-75
6yo: 1-5-42
7yo+: 1-5-42
8 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
Horses aged 6+ have managed 2 wins from
84 runners (34.4% of total runners) in past 10 years.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 2-15-94
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-11-84
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 2-4-66
8 of 10
winners carried 8-5 to
8-13
Top weight: 2947000006 (0-2-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 98 or higher: 1-9-58
Horses rated 90 to 97: 6-19-129
Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-2-57
7 of the last 8 winners have been officially
rated between 88 and 96.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10
winners had run once / twice that year
9 of 10
winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10
winners ran in a class 2 or higher last time
9 of 10
winners won over 7F or further
7 of 10
winners won a race worth 9K+
8 of 10
winners won at class 3 or higher
7 of 10
winners had won no more than 3 handicaps (2 of 3 exceptions post an RPR of 103+
on previous start)
Other Races
Previous
season's winner: 4400 (0-2-4)
Spring Cup H'cap winner (Haaf A
Sixpence): 4 (0-1-1)
Racing To School Handicap winner
(Monsieur Chevalier): 4 (0-1-1)
Betfred The Bonus King H'cap winner
(Tartiflette): 52 (0-1-2)
Longines Handicap winner (Redvers): 300
(0-1-3)
Record of
horses placed in previous Bunbury Cup: 0184100 (2-1-7) (Jamsie fin 6th)
Record of
first 4 from Spring Cup: 7410001 (2-1-7) Haaf A Sxpence won and Dream Tune a very good 5th
Horses that perform very well on a Cim track should be noted - Last years winner Bonnie Brae for example was top Cim
Draw (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
Horses drawn 1 to 9: 5-13-81
Horses drawn 10 to 19: 2-12-90
Horses drawn 21 or higher: 2-2-55
No very strong
trends on the draw though in past 10 years, though 11 of 16 places in past 4
renewals were filled by horses drawn 1 to 9.
Racing Tactics (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
7 of 9
winners were held up in midfield or in rear
Only 2 winners of the race at Ascot since
2003 raced prominently throughout.
Price
No very strong trend on prices with 6
of 10 winners coming from first 3 in the betting and the other 4 winners priced
14/1 or bigger.
Favourites (3-2-11) have gained 3 wins
in past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10
years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Carrying 8-5 to 8-13
· officially rated 88 to 99
· Run no more than twice in 2013
· Ran a class 2 or higher last time out
in past 40 days
· posted an RPR of 95+ last time out
· Won over 7F+
· Won a class 3 or higher worth 9K+
· Placed in 2012 Bunbury Cup and/or 2013
Spring Cup
· Tends to be held up
· Horses drawn 1 to 9 favoured
Conclusion (for me )
Dream Tune has the class - my notebook - good run in the spring cup 200413 Dream Tune, returning to a mile, made the running and did not drop away once headed. He should be better for that run performs to this level consistently and has speed as well as staying power.. worry is the claimer but a good ground sired individual drawn 2 - he seems to need this rail on his right and the predicted ground is right up his street
Haaf a Sixpence ran a stormer in the spring cup to win well - is drawn the other side of the track in 19 was ridden more positively having proven his stamina. He was in front around 3f from home but found plenty for pressure and scored a shade comfortably in the end. He has gone up again for that
Good Luck All
Bob
Conclusion (for me )
Dream Tune has the class - my notebook - good run in the spring cup 200413 Dream Tune, returning to a mile, made the running and did not drop away once headed. He should be better for that run performs to this level consistently and has speed as well as staying power.. worry is the claimer but a good ground sired individual drawn 2 - he seems to need this rail on his right and the predicted ground is right up his street
Haaf a Sixpence ran a stormer in the spring cup to win well - is drawn the other side of the track in 19 was ridden more positively having proven his stamina. He was in front around 3f from home but found plenty for pressure and scored a shade comfortably in the end. He has gone up again for that
Good Luck All
Bob
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