Qipco 2000 Guineas 4th May2013

The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket on today  4th May when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years, with 7 of the last 11 going to horses from Ireland

Breeding

British bred: 5-6-66

Irish bred: 4-11-68

American bred: 1-0-33

French bred: 0-3-4

6 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (2 other sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile & 2 others had won the Irish Derby).

8 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 8F (2 exceptions by Galileo & Montjeu)

10 of 10 winners were born before 6th April

Recent Form

8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo ( Dawn Approach – Moohajim –Cristoforo Columbo  ( the only three in the line up )

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 86+ on debut

7 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket or Gowran Park

7 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (3 exceptions were unbeaten in 2 runs)

9 of 10 winners had won 2 or more races

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)

10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later

7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (3 exceptions posted it on penultimate start)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time

9 of 10 winners had won at group level (exception placed in a group 2)

6 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (4 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial)

9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F

3 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 6 were having first run here)

2yo Races

National Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 10512570 (2-1-8)

Dewhurst Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 48221 (1-2-5)

Coventry Stakes winner (Dawn Approach): 000130 (1-1-6)

Mill Reef Stakes winner (Moohaajim): 2009 (0-1-4)

Champagne Stakes winner (Toronado): 0204 (0-1-4)

Winkfield Stakes winner (Toronado): 40 (0-0-2)

Price

No strong trends on prices.

Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of last 10 (including last 2), giving a level stakes loss of 3.12.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a group 1 winner, that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas or won Irish Derby

·         Born before 07/04/2010

·         Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 86+

·         Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)

·         Previously won at least 2 races

·         Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)

·         Posted an RPR of 110+ last time

·         Having first run of the season (or won a Guineas trial)

·         Won a group race

·         Won the Dewhurst and/or National Stakes

·         Won over 7F or 8F

·       Trained in Ireland (especially by Aidan O’Brien)

Ok the trends say it’s a lay down for Dawn Approach and drawn well today only the faster ground is unknown – just about everything else is a positive  but and its not a very big but – what can run him close or beat him ? I make him only 3lbs ahead of Botti Runner Moohajim(-2 drawn) ( sired by Cape Cross – Sire of Sea The Stars)  and Toranado(+3 drawn) Garswood absolutely was swinging off the bit in his Newmarket run over 7flngs  in a handicap off of 106 – is better than a handicapper! Was aclear leader over 1flngs out laughing at the opposition?