The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 31st May. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets in past 5 years with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008, Dancing Rain at 20/1 in 2011 & Was, last year at 20/1, all landing the prize.
Breeding
British bred: 4-9-53
Irish bred: 4-7-52
American bred: 2-3-14
German bred: 0-0-2
UAE bred: 0-0-1
Japanese bred: 0-0-1
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (exception’s sire retired after 3 runs but was fancied for the Triple Crown races in USA
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 7 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 3 over 1M 2F+ last time
only 5 of 10 winners won last time out (4 exceptions finished 2nd/3rd in an Oaks trial & other was 6th in the 1000 Guineas)
9 of 10 winners achieved their highest Dataform MR last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+
2yo Form
Saxon-Gate.com EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Secret Gesture): 2 (0-1-1)
May Hill Stakes winner (Certify): 364 (0-1-3)Highest finisher from Fillies' Mile to run in this: 16916040 (2-0-8) 2 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 22
Moth Finished 2l 3rd Roz finished 10th
3yo Form
Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Banoffee): 015414 (2-0-6)
Height Of Fashion Stakes winner: 227166 (1-2-6)
Musidora Stakes winner (Liber Nauticus): 3385163 (1-3-7)
Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial winner: 1043 (1-1-4)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Banoffee): 0610042 (1-1-7)
Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Talent): 5100007 (1-0-7)
Irish 1000 Guineas winner: 2 (0-1-1)
Salsabil Stakes winner: 257 (0-1-3)
Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Secret Gesture): 7790294 (0-1-7)
1000 Guineas winner: 444 (0-0-3)
Blue Wind Stakes winner: 405 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Swettenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognized Oaks trial (Musidora,
(Pretty Polly, Talent) Lingfield Secret Gesture) or Cheshire Oaks Gertrude Versed)
2 exceptions were 6th in 1000 Guineas and 3rd in Blue Wind Stakes on previous start
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (2-7-34) has won the race twice in the past 10 years though he his runners have represented 27.6% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-5-10.
Ed Dunlop (2-0-3) trained the winner in 2004 & 2010 from just 3 runners in past 10 renewals.
Henry Cecil (1-1-5) has won the race 8 times in the past 30 years, most recently with Light Shift in 2007.
William Haggas (1-0-2), Michael Bell, Ralph Beckett (1-0-4) & Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-5) have also saddled the winner in past 10 years.
John Gosden (0-2-6) has saddled a placed finisher in each of last 2 runnings.
David Elsworth (0-1-1), Hughie Morris (0-1-2), John Oxx (0-1-2), Jim Bolger (0-1-4) & Michael Stoute (0-1-5) have all been responsible for 1 placed finisher in last 10 years.
Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-9-41, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-7.
Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, though 3 of the last 5 winners have been priced between 20/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (3-3-11) have won 3 of last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.62 since 2003.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2
- Dosage Index of around 1.24
- Centre of Distribution of around 0.21
- Had 1 or 2 runs this year
- Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high MR Datform rating last time
- Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
- Won over 1M+
- Ran over 1M 2F+ last time
- Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
- Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial
- Finished in first 2 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo
- Trained by Ed Dunlop, Aidan O’Brien or Henry Cecil
Ok its still raining and Im getting ready to go off today to see my old mates on the track Im in two minds as to what is too big a price and have a sneaky that Beckets horses could upset the apple cart this year - Talent and Secret Gesture (Crowely has ridden both and opted for Hidden Gesture its the weather that will determine just what I back on the day
but his two animals are in with big shouts as is Gertrude Versed for Gosden who will appreciate the going getting softer and softer
Joker in the pack
Dont forget the absolute mud lover The Lark if the ground comes up bottomless first foal of a 1m6f Listed winning half-sister to dual Oaks winner Sariska was a fascinating contender stepped up in trip on her reappearance but the steady pace did not play to her strengths and she had to settle for a staying-on third. However, this lightly raced type still has plenty of potential over middle-distances and should be much more potent the strong gallop.
Good Luck all
Bob
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