The JLT Lockinge Stakes is the big race today Saturday 18th May, a group 1 run over a mile at Newbury. Last year’s race was won by the mighty Frankel but this year’s renewal looks far more open and will be contested by many horses that were forced to play second fiddle to Frankel last year.
Not Much time to give the full stats today sorry guys
Gender
Fillies/mares (3-0-8) have gained 3 win from just 8 runners in this. All 3 female winners have won a group over a mile the previous year. 2 of the 3 were trained by Michael Stoute.
10 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or below & came from the first 4 in the betting.
Not a race to be looking for a big outsider with last 10 winners going off at single figure odds.
Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 8.56.
Trainers
Richard Hannon (2-1-9) has trained 2 of the last 3 winners of this race.
Henry Cecil (1-3-6) trained Frankel to win it last year and has also seen 3 of his 5 other runners make the places.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-2-7) has trained the winner and 2 close seconds from 7 runners since 2003.
Aidan O’Brien (1-1-7) saddled Hawk Wing to win it in 2003 and Excelebration to finish 2nd last year.
Michael Bell (1-0-1) & John Gosden (1-0-3) have both also trained the winner in past 10 years.
Draw - it is more important to be drawn low for any advantage in a field this size giving Fahhr and declaration of war at least 2 points and an outsider Libbrano riden by Fallon for Hannon
Funny enough the race won by Trumpet major at sandown does not prove verry effective form guide for the winner but the place horses do run well here into big place money
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 (or a multiple group 1 winner aged 5 or 6)
· Fillies & mares do well
· Won over a mile or further
· Previously won a group 1
· Having first run of 2013 or ran in Bet365 Mile
· Officially rated 113 or higher
· Course winner or having first run at Newbury
· Finished in first 2 in last season’s QEII and/or Sussex Stakes
· Finished in first 3 in 2012 St James Palace, Greenham and/or a 2000 Guineas
· From the first 4 in the betting
· Trained by Richard Hannon or Henry Cecil
there have been massive vibes for Declaraion of war and to some extent Beauty Parlour so if you fancy them they do hold the stats -
I am in the place market for this race as I feel too many have shown they are nearly horses and mainly under value - so the animal that attracts me for betfair value is Chil The Kite who runs its best races second time out - simply ran out of puff at sandown Bet365 Mile coming for a brill run to lose it up the hill (had not run for 176 days the animal bred for fast ground and a mile is blinkered for the first time today does not have a great draw but its blinding turn of foot for a horse that comes from behind means to me the price will fall quickly at the off and if the blinkers help will drop to a lay price for the get out stakes
Good luck all
may the gods of lil punters be with you
Bob
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