The Cheltenham Gold Cup 18th march 2011

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-3 Dont forget that Long run broke the trend for the king George 

7yo: 4-2-22

8yo: 3-7-42

9yo: 3-7-35

10yo: 0-3-29

11yo+ 0-1-18

Horses aged 7 to 9 (10-16-99) have won the last 10 runnings.

Horses aged 10+ (0-4-47) have gained no wins and just 4 placed in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. this is a key stat Guys a key stat look where the money is for these old stager's

Breeding

Irish Bred: 8-14-92

French Bred: 2-4-37

British Bred: 0-2-18

German Bred: 0-0-2

American Bred: 0-0-1

Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 12 chases in their career (Kauto Star winning it a second time was exception)

8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+)

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase

9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase that season (exception Imperial Commander beaten a short head in Betfair Chase)

Previous Cheltenham Form

Returning Gold Cup winner (Imperial Commander): 401122 (2-2-6)

3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 112

2 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27

9 of 10 winners ran in a chase at the previous Festival (exception was Best Mate in 2002, there was no 2001 Festival).

9 of 10 winners had previously finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival(Kauto Star who fell when favourite in previous season's Queen Mother was the only exception)

Other Races 

King George winner (Long Run): 4011121F (4-1-7)  6 yr old

Lexus Chase winner (Pandorama): U9F10013 (2-1-8)  8 yr old

AON Chase winner (Noland): 404118 (2-0-6)

Betfair Chase winner (Imperial Commander): 012PF (1-1-5) 10 yrs old

Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): 15526 (1-1-5) 10 yr old

JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Kauto Star): 29P01 (1-1-5) 11 yrs old 

Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Diamond Harry): P576182 (1-1-7)

Ryanair Chase winner (Alberta Run): 1 (1-0-1)

Star Chase winner (China Rock): 1 (1-0-1) This one fits a lot of trends today guys a very good 4th in the jewson last year only 8 yrs old and has beaten Sizing Europe without breaking sweat and how good did that one run in the Queen mother on Wednesday ?

Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (China Rock): 1 (1-0-1) (this was where he sluiced home from Sizing Europe!

7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing P211115

3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 121

10 of 10 winners ran in Lexus or King George (8 of 10 were 1st/2nd)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2

2 of 10 winners ran in the Aon Chase, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (3-5-24) has won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this.

Henrietta Knight (3-0-7) trained Best Mate to win the race 3 times in the 2000’s.

Mouse Morris (1-0-2) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-4) are the only other 2 trainers with entrants to have won this since 2000.

Noel Meade (0-2-3), Willie Mullins (0-2-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-6) have each trained 2 placed finishers in the past 10 renewals.

The Pipe Stable (0-0-14), Nicky Henderson (0-0-5) Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 23 collective runners.

Irish trained runners (2-6-28) won the race 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a place in any of the last 4 years (they were not represented in 2009).

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting but that was then this is now! 

The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 15/2. many will be clinging to the old favourites and price will be backed down tomorrow 

Favourites (5-2-10) have taken 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.35.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 to 9

·         Irish or French bred

·         Had 6 to 12 career chase start (2 to 5 this season)

·         Second or third season chaser (or previous winner)

·         Finished in the first 2 last time and posted RPR of 162+

·         Won over 3M+

·         Won a grade 1 chase (and won a graded chase this season)

·         Finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival before

·         Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George


Update  Well guys this is a good ground Gold cup -