Going is the key to this race and The going has quickened slightly after a dry night. It's now good to soft, soft in places (from soft, good to soft in places).
This track can come up a bog and to have decent ground does allow the top weights to get home - Synchronised won in heavy ground last year off 143 and has won the welsh grand national off 150 again in soft ground the question is can he do it again on this quicker ground?only 3 horses finished, which makes the result slightly more suspect from a trends points of view.
The race has been kind to novices in the past and only 1 winner has carried 11-05 and that was Synchronised last year hefting 11-05 - poor bugger today has to hump another 7lbs and remember he only just got up by three quarter length to that Dodgpot La Venture last year.
Average age of winner has been 7 8 and 9 yr olds carrying less than 10-09 but prices have been in the main single figures with only the light weighted Himalyan Trail carrying 9-09 for sue Smith in 2008 at 16/1
only one 7 yr old in this years line up and thats Qhlimar has won 3miles good/soft ground last run was up with the pace and shot up the hill at sandown of 122 and is off 133 today in a better race. but is in the right age and weight bracket and importantly won its last race - not many in this can boast that stat and 8 of 10 winners did win their last race! Trends say look for a horse who won last time out and there are only 2 of them in today
The other horse that will be keeping my eye on is Cullotys Noble Concorde - the irish have a sparkling record of punted horses in this marathon and Noble Concorde bred from Delami is a stayer who for a 9 yr old actually has an improving profile is a front runner and its second in soft ground at Punchestown behind Some Target who went well in the 4 miler at cheltenham this week reads well
an 8 yr old that has run distance races - and has no weight on its back is being touted - La Beau Bai ticks all the right boxes and the bonus of liking Uttoxeter - Its run in the welsh national 2009 in ground way too heavy puts him in with a great shout today off this 10-00 and Grenall allowance just keeps getting me focused - and the minus maybe that the ground is too good?? he pulled up in this race last year 28 days after finishing third at haydock - the same route he has taken this year.VFB highlites the fact he is 4lbs right for the race and in the handicap proper.
good luck all
Bob
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