summer National

The Britannia English Summer National takes place at Uttoxeter today It is a listed handicap chase for 5yos and upwards, run over 3M 4F, it had been run over 4M ½F. 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-0-3

6yo: 2-0-8

7yo: 2-3-20

8yo: 3-5-27

9yo: 1-3-31

10yo: 1-8-30

11yo+: 0-6-30

Horses aged 5 to 8: 8-8-57

Horses aged 9+: 2-17-91

Younger horses clearly hold the call with 5 to 8 year olds winning 8 of the last 10 from less than 40% of the total runners.

Breeding

French bred: 5-1-24

Irish bred: 3-15-88

British bred: 2-8-33

USA bred: 0-1-3

German bred: 0-0-1

French bred horses have won 5 of the last 10 (including 3 of the last 4) and have only accounted for 16.1% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 8-13-76

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 2-12-73

Horses carrying higher weights have held the call in this lately with 8 of the last 9 winners carrying 10-9 or more

Top Weight: P5P16U5BPPP (1-0-11)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 130 or higher: 5-3-33

Horses rated 120 to 129: 3-15-68

Horses rated 119 or lower: 2-7-48

No massive trends on official rating but 5 of 10 winners were officially rated 130 or higher and they represented just 22.2% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last NH start

5 of 10 winners ran at Stratford or Newton Abbot last time out

8 of 10 winners won on 1 of their last 2 NH starts

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had won over 2M5F/6F)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher

5 of 10 winners were course winners (4 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on 2 of 3 runs here)

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 chase or hurdle last time out

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Ouzbeck): 0 (0-0-1)

Record of horses placed the previous year: 32472U4 (0-4-7)

Stratford Millennium Rose Bowl winner (Estates Recovery): 1P1 (2-0-3)

Durham National winner (Simply Dashing):1 (1-0-1)

Crabbie's Handicap Chase winner (Parc Na Gcappall): 82 (0-1-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 4P

2 of 10 winners ran in Stratford Millennium Rose Bowl, finishing 11

Trainers

Emma Lavelle (2-0-4) has won the last 2 runnings, both run over the new trip of 3M 4F.

Peter Bowen (2-2-17) has trained the winner twice in the past decade (2004 & 2006).

Chris Bealby (1-0-1) has saddled just one runner in the race, Surface To Air, which won this in 2008.

Nick Williams (0-2-4), Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-8) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-11) have each filled a couple of places while Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-1) saw his only runner in the past 10 years finish 2nd in 2010.

Irish-trained runners (0-2-8) have filled 2 places from 8 representatives.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 14/1

Rheindross’ win at 25/1 in 2005 has been the only big shock in this race in the past decade, the majority of the winners came from the first 5 or 6 in the market.

Favourites (1-2-14) have a poor record in this, with just one winner (a joint favourite in 2007) and show a level stakes loss of 7.00.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 5 to 8

·         French bred

·         Carrying 10-9 or more

·         Officially rated 130 or higher

·         Had last run in a class 3 race in the past 55 days

·         Finished in the first 4 in last NH start

·         Won 1 of last 2 starts

·         Run in 8 or less handicap chases (winning 3 or less)

·         Won over 3M+

·         Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher

·         Course winner or having first course start

·         Trained by Peter Bowen or Emma Lavelle

·         Priced 5/1 to 14/1

Northumberland Plate 250611

First run in 1883, the John Smith's Northumberland Plate  Saturday, 25th June and is the highlight of the three-day Newcastle meeting. This class 2 handicap is limited to 20 runners and is run over 2 miles. Lower weights that have proven stamina are favoured.  ground is good to soft 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-1-3

4yo: 3-13-65

5yo: 0-5-44

6yo: 4-7-39

7yo+: 2-5-36

Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-19-112

Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-12-75

Older horses have held the edge recently with horses aged 6+ winning 5 of the last 7.

Weights

Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-61

Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-19-126

9 of 10 winners (last 8) carried 8-11 or less

Horses carrying a penalty: 0-3-11

Top weight: 00000000030 (0-1-11)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-14-70

Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-98

Horses rated 84 or less: 0-2-19

The last 8 winners were officially rated 85 to 93

Recent/Past Form

4 of 10 winners had their last start in a hurdles race

10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times (flat & jumps) that year

10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 1M 6F+

8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3 or 4

7 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher

7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Overturn): 708 (0-0-3)

Braveheart Handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 4 (0-1-1)

Tentofollow Handicap winner (Montaff): 30 (0-1-2)

Ascot Stakes winner (Swingkeel): 288 (0-1-3)

Chester Cup winner (Overturn): 98300 (0-1-5)

Eddie Stobart Stakes winner (Yorgunnabelucky): 00 (0-0-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25

4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap hurdle last time out.

Trainers

George Moore (1-2-3) and Paul Cole (1-2-6) have both gained 1 win and 2 places in the past 10 years.

Amanda Perrett (1-1-7), Donald McCain (1-0-1), Mick Channon (1-0-1) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race since 2001.

Alan Swinbank (0-3-4) and Richard Fahey (0-2-6) have both saddled multiple places in the last 10 years.

Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win & 1 place from just 6 representatives.

Trainers who have not done so well include Mark Johnston (0-0-10), Tim Easterby (0-0-6) and Brian Ellison (0-1-9).

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-18-70

Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-7-70

Horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-6-47

Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.

On good or softer:

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-11-54

Horses drawn 9 or higher: 1-7-60

On good to firm or firm ground:

Horses drawn 1 to 8: 0-8-36

Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-5-37

Racing Style

7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently in first 7

The last 2 winners both made all to win, the 3 winners who were held up did so on soft ground.

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or higher

No major trend on the prices though longer priced horses have tended to do well recently with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1.

Favourites (1-4-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6+

·         Carrying 8-11 or less

·         Officially rated 85 to 93

·         Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time

·         Ran in Ascot Stakes or in a handicap hurdle last time

·         Ran in last 55 days

·         Ran 2 to 6 times in 2011

·         Won over 1M 6F+

·         Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer

·         Trained by George Moore, Paul Cole or Alan Swinbank

·         Raced prominently

·         Priced 12/1 or higher

my two a day Saturday 25th June 2011

15:05 3:05 Newcastle 50 EW NB La Vecchia Scuola  29 "not done too much this season but based on its run in the Czarevitch last year has an outstanding each way price out of this 4 box today - she comes into the race off the same mark she was short headed by Aaim to Prosper who ran so well at royal Ascot. she will love the ground and thats the key to her today "

15:55 3:55 Newmarket 500 Win NAP Sirens Song  5 "This is my Filly to follow and a decent bet today for her - was really surprised she did not act in the oaks at Epsom but that was more about becoming unbalanced on ground too fast for her - different proposition today and under Mosse will get all the help from the saddle she needs despite the fact hes ridden here 7 times without a winner. she will go bigger than this in running but cannot see past her for this event "

Friday 24th june

yesterday was a wipe out for me and drawing my horns in a little - staying mainly with the distance races but taking my nap in the sprint race at Newcastle

19:25 7:25 Newcastle 50 EW NAP Solemn  17 "Solemn is in the pink at the moment and cannot believe his price for this 5flngs - last time at Salisbury he carried 10-05 in a class 4 sprint out of a low drawn 2 box and off a mark of 90 I made that a performance around the mid 90s (true he's up into a class 2 tonight and has some youngsters to contend with) but better drawn and racing off just 89 the price is too high - keniry rides this track well having bagged 14% wins (1 from 7 rides) from his last 5 yr visits whereas Milton Bradley is a stranger at the track!"

19:35 7:35 Newmarket 100 Win NB Crimson Knight  10 "This animal is crying out for this trip and the first time handicap makes him well in to get home tonight has improved for each step up in trip and this mark is not beyond him and 10s looks as if he's a tad overpriced for the win on this ground" Resulttttttttttttttttttttt - 1 Crimson Knight 12/1 2 Starlight Walk 11/4 Fav 3 Cunning Act 13/2 and won he did -  managed to get even more on Betfair as it went out to 16s

Thursday June 23rd 20011

Thursday 23rd June 2011

15:10 3:10 Ffos Las 200 Win NAP Baily Storm  9 "Baily Storm has its ground and correct distance today under Jacobs needs a small field to be at its best and this grade is ideal - its race at stratford 2m4f (last year after a long layoff) was followed up 20 days later but a solid win at Hexham over 2m7f and again 18 days later at Worcester he comes into this race after a match race class 2 where he was having his first run of the season hes quids in off todays mark - happy to take the 9ds for a decent bet "

15:45	3:45 Ffos Las	50 EW	Tout Regulier	12
"funny old animal that you have to take with a pinch of salt - but with the Bowen yard starting to fire am interested for the each way maket today is not particularly well handicapped and fell when looking all over the winner at Aintree but has been too heavily penalised by the handicapper for that run/fall- has its ground and Devereaux keeps the ride def has decent place chances and if the yard fancy him will be punted down"

Bob,

set your analyser to Motivator 3yo 11-16f and analise from 2010 (there were few 3yo before then).

More to come!

Soft or heavy at Ascot 180611 ?

Saturday 18th June 2011
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot 50 Win NAP Poet  13 "only a couple of animals for me early and that Includes Poet in the 3.05 he will love this going of very soft ground much better speed figs than Await the Dawn on this going and think its a snip today at current 13s - its run against Workforce at Sandown says he will be just right for this "
15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot 50 Win Definightly  12 "like the chances of Definightly under crocodile boots Peslier loves the ground and distance and a cracking runner first time up with a decent draw as well in 17 "

Motivator Analysis

A further Step on analysis.....for Motivator I'm doing the same for Dubawi and Dansilli this and will publish once complete:

Next Stage is to look at 3yo in Handicaps between 11-14f.

Exciting stuff!!

John

The Coronation Stakes Ascot g/soft soft in places 170611

Its still light rain at Ascot  and ground is going all the time - 

15:45	3:45 Royal Ascot	100 Win NAP	Claiomh Solais	17
" 170611 Ascot Coronation Stakes 1 Miles g/sft soft in places This filly has it all going for her today - will relish the underfoot conditions(she ran a corker on soft first and only run on it when beaten by Sapphire who was blnk first time and that one was beaten by Banipire in its next run.)  33/1 Irish 1000 gns the currugh 1mg/frm Claiomh Solais was Ridden as a pacemaker for Banimpire (won well yesterday), was beaten by only a length behind Misty For Me, Together and Laughing Lashes, she kept up a good gallop and didn't relent until inside the last furlong. She will be very competitive under similar tactics in todays group race with the ground sofening to her liking - she will not start off this price and its a steal"

Sires

I have been looking at sires again.......the list below shows 3yr and older data from april 2009 to the present.

Food for thought....a lot of well known and expensive stallions typically return only 10% winners.

Bob , watching the racing this pm Fame and Glory won beautifully, what do you think the result might be if they ran against a horse such as Masterminded at his peak? ie Horses that routinely run over over 2 1/2 miles.

Thursday Ascot - 160611

Ladies day and the ground is going to be g/soft by all accounts - they seemed confident early that it would be no worse than good but hold your horses as they say 

15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot 50 EW NAP      Askar Tau  29 "This is the animal that can upset the apple cart in Gold Cup - has been called a lot of names but the fact is he's well under rated to make the frame.Sired by Montjue he is a real stayer that can bide his time mid pack and has the class and breeding for an extreme test - take a look at his win here 21st April where the race only developed late and he winged past them. -I think today race will be run at a fast pace to test the staying prowess of Fame and glory and to that end again it will be set up for animals that have both stamina and a turn of foot - this boy fits that bill I noted his aim was this race when winning a real old tactic race over 2m2f Doncaster when all he did was win going away from a decent field. IF fame and Glory stays this distance he will be hard to pass but the If is there to bet against " I would have been confident of a win nap on this animal if he had its good ground to run on WHAT A GALLANT PERFORMANCE IN THAT GROUND FINISHED 6TH SO DID NOT GET THE 5 PLACES EACH WAY -

15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot 25 EW NB Opinion Poll  17 "The ground has gone as far as my Akar Tau is concerned and would not be surprised to see him pulled out - but the ground has come right for Opinion Poll as the forecast turns to g/soft. Barzalona takes the ride and am covering my stakes really with the minimum bet as am not sure he will get the distance its an each way selection for me" GOOOD RUN INTO SECOND SAVED THE BACON BUT WAS LEFT WITH A LOT TO DO - THE ONLY ONE THAT WAS REALLY FINISHING

17:00 5:00 Royal Ascot 25 EW Moriarty  17 "I always like to take a chance on Hannon with headgear first time - his site gives a decent write up this animal (The boss said Richard has no doubt that Moriarty would have won the Feilden Stakes had he not run around in the last half-furlong, so we are putting on the sideburns (cheek pieces) to make him concentrate. The horse has since run another cracker to finish second in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes in Ireland, where Ryan (Moore) felt he should have won, and his form is very solid.) Ascot today is going to be full of unknowns as the going is getting softer by the hour and this boy should handle it on breeding" NAH NOT A CHANCE REALLY STRUGGLED THE LAST 3 FLNGS