summer National

The Britannia English Summer National takes place at Uttoxeter today It is a listed handicap chase for 5yos and upwards, run over 3M 4F, it had been run over 4M ½F. 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-0-3

6yo: 2-0-8

7yo: 2-3-20

8yo: 3-5-27

9yo: 1-3-31

10yo: 1-8-30

11yo+: 0-6-30

Horses aged 5 to 8: 8-8-57

Horses aged 9+: 2-17-91

Younger horses clearly hold the call with 5 to 8 year olds winning 8 of the last 10 from less than 40% of the total runners.

Breeding

French bred: 5-1-24

Irish bred: 3-15-88

British bred: 2-8-33

USA bred: 0-1-3

German bred: 0-0-1

French bred horses have won 5 of the last 10 (including 3 of the last 4) and have only accounted for 16.1% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 8-13-76

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 2-12-73

Horses carrying higher weights have held the call in this lately with 8 of the last 9 winners carrying 10-9 or more

Top Weight: P5P16U5BPPP (1-0-11)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 130 or higher: 5-3-33

Horses rated 120 to 129: 3-15-68

Horses rated 119 or lower: 2-7-48

No massive trends on official rating but 5 of 10 winners were officially rated 130 or higher and they represented just 22.2% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last NH start

5 of 10 winners ran at Stratford or Newton Abbot last time out

8 of 10 winners won on 1 of their last 2 NH starts

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days

7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had won over 2M5F/6F)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher

5 of 10 winners were course winners (4 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on 2 of 3 runs here)

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 chase or hurdle last time out

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Ouzbeck): 0 (0-0-1)

Record of horses placed the previous year: 32472U4 (0-4-7)

Stratford Millennium Rose Bowl winner (Estates Recovery): 1P1 (2-0-3)

Durham National winner (Simply Dashing):1 (1-0-1)

Crabbie's Handicap Chase winner (Parc Na Gcappall): 82 (0-1-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 4P

2 of 10 winners ran in Stratford Millennium Rose Bowl, finishing 11

Trainers

Emma Lavelle (2-0-4) has won the last 2 runnings, both run over the new trip of 3M 4F.

Peter Bowen (2-2-17) has trained the winner twice in the past decade (2004 & 2006).

Chris Bealby (1-0-1) has saddled just one runner in the race, Surface To Air, which won this in 2008.

Nick Williams (0-2-4), Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-8) and Paul Nicholls (0-2-11) have each filled a couple of places while Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-1) saw his only runner in the past 10 years finish 2nd in 2010.

Irish-trained runners (0-2-8) have filled 2 places from 8 representatives.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 14/1

Rheindross’ win at 25/1 in 2005 has been the only big shock in this race in the past decade, the majority of the winners came from the first 5 or 6 in the market.

Favourites (1-2-14) have a poor record in this, with just one winner (a joint favourite in 2007) and show a level stakes loss of 7.00.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 5 to 8

·         French bred

·         Carrying 10-9 or more

·         Officially rated 130 or higher

·         Had last run in a class 3 race in the past 55 days

·         Finished in the first 4 in last NH start

·         Won 1 of last 2 starts

·         Run in 8 or less handicap chases (winning 3 or less)

·         Won over 3M+

·         Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher

·         Course winner or having first course start

·         Trained by Peter Bowen or Emma Lavelle

·         Priced 5/1 to 14/1