The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 3rd June.

The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 3rd June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. In recent years it has really paid to stick with the favourite in this race, with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008 being the only real shock winner of this century.

Breeding

British bred: 4-8-53

Irish bred: 3-9-55

American bred: 2-2-13

German bred: 1-0-3

Other: 0-0-2

9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (exception retired after 3 runs but was fancied for the Triple Crown races in USA

All 10 winners were born in February, March or April

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had had 2 to 7 career starts

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 1 or 2 times that season

7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in an Oaks trial on seasonal debut & other was 6th in the 1000 Guineas)

9 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time out

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days

7 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (2 of 3 exceptions finished 2nd in a group 1)

6 of 10 winners won or placed in listed or group race as a 2yo (4 exceptions ran only in maidens or not all as 2yos)

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+

2yo Form

Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Misty For Me): 24 (0-1-2)

Montrose Stakes winner (Blue Bunting): 68 (0-0-2)

Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile winner (White Moonstone): 64 (0-0-2)

Highest finisher from Fillies' Mille to run in this: 101691604 (3-0-9)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 422

2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel, finishing 22

3yo Form

Height Of Fashion Stakes winner (Beatrice Aurore): 062271 (1-2-6)

Irish 1000 Guineas winner: 12 (1-1-2)

Cheshire Oaks winner (Wonder Of Wonders): 3061004 (1-1-7)

1000 Guineas winner (Blue Bunting): 144 (1-0-3)

Newbury Fillies Trial winner (Izzi Top): 4014 (1-0-4)

Salsabil Stakes winner (Siren's Song): 25 (0-1-2)

Note I really liked the way this filly simply accelerated away from a good field in this race which can be seen on ATR - She ran a very good race first time out�so we decided to have a crack today's race and it has paid off nicely. She is in the Oaks and the Irish Oaks and we might look for another race over today's trip for her in the coming weeks. Fran says she will definitely be better when she tackles a mile and a half. She has settled down a lot as she used to be a bit hot. - Jessica Harrrington, trainer

Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Zain Al Boldan): 77902 (0-1-5)

Blue Wind Stakes winner (Banimpre): 405 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 16

The last 7 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial(Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

Other 3 winners ran in English or Irish Guineas last time, finishing 116

Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (2-7-28) has won the race twice in the past decade. His first strings have a record of 2-6-10.

Ed Dunlop (2-0-5) has also won the race twice in past 10 years.

Henry Cecil (1-1-5) has won the race 8 times in the past 26 years, most recently with Light Shift in 2007.

Andrew Balding (1-0-1), Ralph Beckett (1-0-3) and Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-7) have each saddled the winner once since 2001.

Barry Hills (0-2-8) and Michael Stoute (0-2-9) have both filled 2 places in the last 10 years.

Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-9-36, though when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-8.

Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter

Favourites (5-2-11) have a very good recent record in this having won 5 of the last 10 and showing a level stakes profit of 6.71 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2

·         Had 1 or 2 runs this season

·         Ran in the past 35 days and achieved career high RPR

·         Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)

·         Won over 1M+

·         Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)

·         Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial

·         Finished in first 4 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo

·         Trained by Ed Dunlop, Henry Cecil or Aidan O’Brien (first string)

·         Sent off favourite

The stats say it all really and the market is reflecting the trends of the past - I took Siren's Song at 28s early and am hoping for a big run. But I feel the way that Blue Bunting showed in the 1000 she is a very good filly indeed and will be the tuffest nut to crack will be def doing the forecast and cheering from the stands