First run in 1883, the John Smith's Northumberland Plate Saturday, 25th June and is the highlight of the three-day Newcastle meeting. This class 2 handicap is limited to 20 runners and is run over 2 miles. Lower weights that have proven stamina are favoured. ground is good to soft
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-1-3
4yo: 3-13-65
5yo: 0-5-44
6yo: 4-7-39
7yo+: 2-5-36
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-19-112
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-12-75
Older horses have held the edge recently with horses aged 6+ winning 5 of the last 7.
Weights
Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-12-61
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-19-126
9 of 10 winners (last 8) carried 8-11 or less
Horses carrying a penalty: 0-3-11
Top weight: 00000000030 (0-1-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-14-70
Horses rated 85 to 93: 8-15-98
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-2-19
The last 8 winners were officially rated 85 to 93
Recent/Past Form
4 of 10 winners had their last start in a hurdles race
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times (flat & jumps) that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won over 1M 6F+
8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3 or 4
7 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Overturn): 708 (0-0-3)
Braveheart Handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 4 (0-1-1)
Tentofollow Handicap winner (Montaff): 30 (0-1-2)
Ascot Stakes winner (Swingkeel): 288 (0-1-3)
Chester Cup winner (Overturn): 98300 (0-1-5)
Eddie Stobart Stakes winner (Yorgunnabelucky): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25
4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap hurdle last time out.
Trainers
George Moore (1-2-3) and Paul Cole (1-2-6) have both gained 1 win and 2 places in the past 10 years.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-7), Donald McCain (1-0-1), Mick Channon (1-0-1) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race since 2001.
Alan Swinbank (0-3-4) and Richard Fahey (0-2-6) have both saddled multiple places in the last 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win & 1 place from just 6 representatives.
Trainers who have not done so well include Mark Johnston (0-0-10), Tim Easterby (0-0-6) and Brian Ellison (0-1-9).
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-18-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-6-47
Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.
On good or softer:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-11-54
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 1-7-60
On good to firm or firm ground:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 0-8-36
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-5-37
Racing Style
7 of 10 winners led or raced prominently in first 7
The last 2 winners both made all to win, the 3 winners who were held up did so on soft ground.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 12/1 or higher
No major trend on the prices though longer priced horses have tended to do well recently with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at prices between 14/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (1-4-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6+
· Carrying 8-11 or less
· Officially rated 85 to 93
· Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
· Ran in Ascot Stakes or in a handicap hurdle last time
· Ran in last 55 days
· Ran 2 to 6 times in 2011
· Won over 1M 6F+
· Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer· Trained by George Moore, Paul Cole or Alan Swinbank
· Raced prominently
· Priced 12/1 or higher
2 comments:
Have a real Fancy that la Vecchia Scola will be in the places for this but you cant have just the one in a race like this and the form of high office makes some appeal - saw it run at yarmouth under quinn where it pulverised the opposition on g/sft ground he was just as good last run against bondage and is my alternative selection
good luck all
Northumberland Plate was dominated by those ridden patiently, indeed the winner, runner-up and fourth were all well behind for most of the way, This race usually favours a horse with a relatively light weight - no winner has carried more than 8st11lb since Bangalore in 2002 - and that was the case once again, despite TOMINATOR being one of only six contenders who fitted the stat. He had only once tired further than 1m4f and had never previously gone beyond 1m6f, but he relished this stamina test, staying on really well having travelled strongly under a sensible ride from Paul Pickard. It´s no surprise he found dramatic improvement for this tripconsidering his dam´s only win came over 1m7f on soft ground and she´s a sister to Goodwood Cup winner Tioman Island.Completely unexposed as a stayer, Tominator can defy a rise when faced with similar conditions and a race like the Cesarewitch is an obvious target.
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