The Investec Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday 4th June and this year’s race has a lot to live up to after Sea The Stars did the Guineas-Derby double in 2009 and Workforce won by amazing fashion last year. Unfortunately it looks as if Frankel will not be taking part but Carton House’s Dante win means he looks the one they all have to beat.
Breeding
Irish bred: 6-12-78
British bred: 3-6-48
American bred: 1-2-17 (Carlton House is USA bred!)
German bred: 0-0-1
French bred: 0-0-2 Native Khan is French bred as is Recital!
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
5 of 10 winners by sire that'd won/placed in English/Irish 2000 Guineas
5 of 10 winners by sire that'd won/placed in English/Irish 2000 Guineas
5 of 10 winners by a sire who'd finished in the first 2 in the King George
10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on all starts that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante) but have opted for 3rd in the 2000 as this year Frankel freaked the race
10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 114+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
5 of 10 winners won group 1 as 2yo (other 5 not run in group 1 as 2yo)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners made their debut in a 7F or 8F race
9 of 10 winners made their debut at a group 1 track
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 38 times before winning the race. In those 38 starts they had finished outside the first 2 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on their racecourse debut as a 2yo.
2yo Form
Racing Post Trophy winner (Casamento): 7106116 (3-0-7)
Dewhurst winner (Frankel): 311 (2-1-3)
Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 30201 (1-2-5)
Casamento had Native Khan fourth and Dubawi Gold back in ninth when winning the Racing Post Trophy for Michael Halford. Regarded as more of a Derby horse than a Guineas type by connections, he ran in the 2000gns in preference to the Dante. Frankie Dettori soon had him chasing Frankel but the colt´s efforts told after five furlongs and he was well beaten when Dettori eased him up in the latter stages.
Tyros Stakes winner (Zoffany): 14 (1-0-2)
Criterium De Saint-Cloud winner (Recital): 092 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11 (Recital)
3yo Form
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in 2000 Guineas: 24701104 (2-1-8)
Native Khan, without the suspended Kieren Fallon, ran a solid race and finished 11 lengths clear of the fourth horse. The Craven winner was well at home on the quick ground and looks as solid a guide as any to this form. A tough, smart colt, he has further big races in him provided he avoids Frankel, of course. The Derby and the Prix du Jockey Club are possibilities for him.
Dante Stakes winner (Carlton House): 739110120 (3-2-9)
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Recital): 113430325 (2-4-9) This one does hold a lot of the stats for sure
Cocket Hat Stakes winner (Masked Marvel): F703 (0-1-4)
Newmarket Stakes winner (Ocean War): 80 (0-0-2)
Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Genius Beast): 00400 (0-0-5)
Chester Vase winner (Treasure Beach): 56605450 (0-0-8)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112
3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in the Derrinstown stud Derby Trial, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ballysax Stakes, finishing 11
Trainers
British-trained runners: 6-10-94
Irish-trained runners: 4-9-47
French-trained runners: 0-1-5
Michael Stoute (3-2-10) has won the race 3 times in past 10 years and his first strings’ record reads 211021 (3-2-6).
Aidan O’Brien (2-7-39) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but since then has managed just 6 places from 35 runners.
John Oxx (1-1-2), Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4), Jim Bolger (1-0-2), Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race once in the past 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-9) and John Dunlop (0-2-4) have both had multiple placed finishers since 2000.
Price
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.
Favourites (4-4-12) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 0.38 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
· Born before 07/04/2008
· Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
· Run 2 to 5 times before (and once or twice this year)
· Never finished worse than 2nd (excluding racecourse debut)
· Has run in the past 35 days
· Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
· Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
· Won Dante, Derrinstown or placed in 2000 Guineas as 3yo
· Won a group race
· Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
· Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo
· Trained by M Stoute, J Oxx or A O’Brien
· Priced 6/1 or below
I took the early 18s for Native Khan and hoping for a big run on saturday Nursey has taken Casamento as her forecast and each way shot and we both of the opinion that the Queens horse will not take to the preliminaries and have opted for Recital as our included horses
If Carlton House does not act up in the prelims then a saver has to be punted !
2 comments:
CARLTON HOUSE wrestled Derby favouritism back from French challenger Pour Moi on Thursday morning.
The Queen's colt, who faces a crucial canter on Thursday morning, is available to back at just over 7-2 (4.7) at 8.30am on Betfair having touched 11-4 (3.75) at around 8am and been 9-2 (5.5) at 7am.
The Andre Fabre-trained Pour Moi had been clear favourite at 4-1 (5.0) on Betfair, and is edging towards 9-2 (5.2) at 8.30am, as the market worried about the chances of Carlton House lining up on Saturday after he was found to have swelling in a near-fore joint on Monday.
Bookmakers more circumspect in their reaction to mounting speculation over whether Carlton House will make Saturday's race.
William Hill at 13-8 and Ladbrokes at 7-4 were unchanged, while Victor Chandler went 7-4 (from 6-4), Totesport 2-1 (from 13-8) and Paddy Power 9-4 (from 15-8).
The chances of the Queen's horse lining up at Epsom on Saturday appear to rest on how the Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt comes through a key canter on Newmarket Heath on Thursday morning.
John Warren, the Queen's racing manager, said on Wednesday: "We are hoping the horse can canter on Thursday but the final decision lies with Sir Michael. Carlton House had another quiet day today and we will know more later tomorrow."
Likely to be declared at Thursday's 48-hour stage for the Derby, Carlton House is then expected to be assessed again by vets later on Thursday at evening stables.
No horse has had a training set back the week before the derby and won - having said that it was a magnificent run by Carlton House, though losing its shoe at that late stage did not help it it did not cost Carlton house the race - Treasure Beach did nothing wrong and will win big this year but what can you say about Pour Moi- amazing A Fast run race and allow him to use that fantastic acceleration . They went flat out and that's the way this horse needs it on runnings so far, any race with great pace is his for the taking -- off a slower gallop he is there for the beating and now the top trainers have a guide on how to beat him ? With a real untroubled prep race Carleton house will beat him - you read it here first!
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