Twitter Twitter all the way

Hi Guys still waiting the Dubai Cup at 7.25 but had a solid day today so far - I tweeted the Best bets and they came good 


2.15 strt Dark Spirit  2nd green as grass won well last start and will have been trained well for this and back for the later races -ran a cracker and this one will be powerful - it is still green and jumps like a chaser in making BUT its getting its game together big time and on my nag me list of horses for the summer


but Hutchinson goes from stratford to uttox for the bumper ride  5.15 Fairey Delta - WON advised at 32s won at 16s well done  to new trainer Martin Meade boom as they say-- 

was very pleased with the late rattle of Mull Of Killough in the Lincoln finished well and would have won in another stride. His rider felt that he would have got there if he´d had something to carry him into the race. 

 the horrible result of the Dubai cup first run convinced me  a big run was forthcoming from  Mikhail Glinka and now Barbican there is 12 mins to the race now rescheduled for 7.25

 then its feet up time

 Bob

The Dubai World Cup 310312 selections?

this is a brilliant 2miler and looking at the trends below you will see the most likely candidates are non runners ! the only one that remains within the spectrum is Mikhail Glinka who is a solid bet to my mind has won the distance (Queens Vase) and at meydan 21 days ago on the surface Sired bt Galileo  he´s a big class horse with a high cruising speed. He looks a Cup horse to me 


 I adore  Barbican who is a top analyser horse for this race even though as yest the gb horses have done nothing for the stats i will still continue to back this one -son of hurricane run is a swinger and very keen horse who can run from the back or up with the pace and wants to win - upped in trip and think it will get it based on its last run over 1m6f at kempton - quote from his owner was" He will get two miles no problem at all  would love him to get two and a half miles so that he could win the Ascot Gold Cup one day" 


Good luck its the richest race in the world and our racing media are pretty poor for the stats
 don't go overboard but enjoy its a goodun


 Bob

The William Hill Lincoln Handicap 310312

Its not a bad race to get your teeth into but not to put your mortgage on, last years winner showed that for a fact and looking through a massive lineup there are quite a few you can give a chance to _ dandy Nichols is always to be feared in big prized handicaps and there is very little wrong with Dont Call Me who meets so many of the trends (though 5 yr olds not that solid its the only blip in not getting the full profile) won its last time out at Ayr coming from way from the back but it has also won at Ascot over the mile on good ground makes it a very versatile horse who has won well with the Tongue Tie for both Nichols and Smart. Its no sweat that Dandy's son is not on him as hes off to Meydan where he has two rides - 4.00 Addictive Dream and 4.30 Inxile so the leg up goes to Paul Quinn who has shown a profit for Nichols and at Doncaster -have to say his strike rate at a mile is not spectacular though. There are plenty in with form to get it that's true  and the other that attracts me this morning is Mull Of Killough (has kelly on board again today) is a pretty fast animal over the mile and won its last race at 8flngs at lingfield  I thought that race showed how good his form is currently  is 2lb lower than when third in the 2010 Lincoln and he may have still more to offer with the change of stables obviously not doing him any harm at all. And the third has to be Man of Action who gets in here with just a lb hike over his best performance  and he can carry weight and runs well fresh likes the track ground distance and going 


 enjoy the race don't go overboard its a long flat season


 Bob

The William Hill Lincoln Handicap trends 310312

The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 31st March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 6-8-72

5yo: 1-9-67

6yo: 3-6-53

7yo: 0-4-23

8yo+: 0-3-11

4yoS have won 6 of the last 9 runnings

4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 85% of the runners.

There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 9-1 or more: 3-10-55

Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 7-12-107

Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 0-8-64

7 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-0 and all 10 winners carried at least 8-9.

Horses running with a penalty (1-5-16) have a solid record with 6 of 16 making the frame, and 1 winning.

Top weight: 0017002760 (1-1-10)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 95 or higher: 8-20-126

Horses rated 94 or lower: 2-10-100

8 of 10 winners (including the last 4) were officially rated 95 or higher.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (4 won)

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain

8 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 starts

9 of 10 winners (last 9) previously gained 2 to 4 career wins

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won no more than 3 handicaps

10 of 10 winners won over 1M or further

8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season

8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+

0 of 10 winners had previously won at the track

9 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3

Only 1 of 10 winners won a class 1 race (listed)

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Sweet Lightning): 0090 (0-0-4)

Highest placed finisher from Home Of Racing H'cap to run in this: 4184203 (1-4-7)

Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Nazreef): 0300 (0-1-4)

Racing And Football Outlook Conditions Stakes winner (Mia's Boy): 6 (0-0-1)

Molson Coors Noel Cannon Memorial Trophy winner (Leviathan): 6 (0-0-1)

Bunbury Cup winer (Brae Hill): 8 (0-0-1)

baden-racing.com Handicap winner (Captain Ramius): 00 (0-0-2)

williamhill.com Ayrshire Handicap winner (Don't Call Me): 805 (0-0-3)

Play Golf Before Racing At Southwell Handicap winner (Reve De Nuit): 000 (0-0-3)

Previous season's Spring Mile winner (Eton Forever): 0R0 (0-0-3)

Layla Hotel Earl Grosvenor Handicap winner (Kyllachy Star): 000 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 70

2 of 10 winners ran in the Tote International Stakes, finishing 90

5 of 10 winners had their last turf run at Newmarket the previous October/November

Mull Of Killough finished 5th in the Home Of Racing Handicap at Newmarket in October, winning his side but was clearly at a disadvantage from a high draw and that race is usually a good pointer for the Lincoln.

Since 2000 Record of first 5 from Home Of Racing H'cap in this: 0010143015400203 (3-5-16)

Trainers

William Haggas (2-0-3) has won the race twice in the past 5 years.

John Quinn (1-1-6) trained Blythe Knight to win the race in 2006 and finish 2nd in 2008.

Michael Dods (1-0-3) and John Gosden (1-0-4) have each trained the winner in the past 3 years

Richard Fahey (0-5-20) has yet to train the winner of the race but he has had 5 placed finishers in the last 10 runnings. David Barron (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the frame.

Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Dandy Nicholls (0-0-13), Richard Hannon (0-0-10) and Tim Easterby (0-0-4) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 27 combined runners.

Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2000-2011)

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-15-70

Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-8-70

Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-7-86

Horses drawn 7 or below have won 5 of the last 10 from 31% of the total runners.

8 of 10 winners were drawn within 6 stalls of the Spring Mile winner

Price

6 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or below.

There have been a few shocks in the past decade but 6 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 in the betting.

Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of the last runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 6 (4yos especially)

·         Carrying 8-9 to 9-0

·         Officially rated 95 or higher

·         Won one of last three races

·         Finished in first 3 last time out

·         Posted their highest RPR in last two runs

·         Having first run of the season

·         Won over 1M+

·         Gained 2 to 4 career wins

·         Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps

·         Previously won a class 2 or higher (or won a class 3 last time out)

·         Won a race worth 11K+

·         Finished in first 5 in the Home Of Racing H’cap at Newmarket in October

·         Drawn 1-7 (or within 6 stalls of the Spring Mile winner)

·         Priced 10/1 or below (favourite especially)

·         Trained by William Haggas or David Barron

Its a fun race guys thats all it is I know how exciting it is for the first big race and there is no way you can have only one animal running for you - watch for the bias from the early race but dont be completely fooled by that result - look to the trends look for the pace - back the winner

 Bob

big races this weekend - preview The Dubai World Cup 310312

To Be Honest the racing is holding its breath for tomorrow and todays fare is pretty limited so here are some intersting trends you might cast your eyes over 
 The Dubai World Cup is the richest horse race in the world with a purse of 10 million dollars up for grabs. The races takes place at Meydan on Saturday and will bring together some of the best horses from Europe, Asia, America, South Africa and the Middle East. Inaugurated in 1996, the race was run on dirt at Nad Al Sheba up until 2009 before being moved to Meydan in 2010 and has been run on a Tapeta surface for the past 2 years. The change in surface means that some trends are now less significant.  

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 4-5-33

5yo: 3-12-48

6yo: 2-2-26

7yo+: 1-0-11

No strong trends to be gleaned from the ages of the winners.

2 of 3 winners aged 6+ had placed in the previous year’s World Cup, other had won the previous year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic

Gender

Mares (0-0-4) have failed to make the frame with any of their 4 runners since 2002.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in first 2 last time (7 won)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ last time

10 of 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year

10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days

10 of 10 winners had at least 9 career starts

9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (exception won over 1M 1F)

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a group/grade 1 (both exceptions were group 2 winners trained by Saeed Bin Suroor)

7 of 10 winners had won a race worth 250K+

Course Form Tomoorw there will be plenty of non runners!

Al Maktoum Challenge R3 winner (Capponi): 143017019 (3-1-9)

Al Maktoum Challenge R2 winner (Mendip): 7134650 (1-1-7)

Al Maktoum Challenge R1 winner (Musir): 053 (0-1-3)

Previous season's UAE 2000 Guineas winner (Splash Point): 1327 (1-2-4)

Previous season's UAE Derby winner (Khawlah): 37727 (0-2-5)

Dubai City Of Gold winner (Mikhail Glinka): 3 (0-1-1)

Burj Nahaar winner (African Story): 47 (0-0-2)

3 of 5 non-American winners ran in Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 3 last time, finishing 112

2 of 5 non-American winners ran in Al Maktoum Challenge Rd 2, finishing 11

4 of 5 non-USA winners had won Rd 2 or 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge.

Other Races

Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 17160 (2-0-5)

San Antonio Handicap winner (Game On Dude): 1737 (1-1-4)

Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Flat Out): 1 (1-0-1)

Suburban Handicap winner (Flat Out): 1 (1-0-1)

Arima Kinen winner (Orfevre): 1 (1-0-1)

Singapore Airlines Int'l Cup winner (Gitano Hernando): 41 (1-0-2)

Japan Dirt Cup (Transcend): 7402 (0-1-4)

Pacific Classic winner (Acclamation): 70 (0-0-2)

Champion Stakes winner (Cirrus Des Aigles): 09 (0-0-2)

Irish Champion Stakes winner (So you Think): 44 (0-0-2)

Tenno Sho winner (Tosen Jorden): 68 (0-0-2)

JBC Classic winner (Smart Falcon): 80 (0-0-2)

Tokyo Daishoten winner (Smart Falcon): 60 (0-0-2)

4 of 5 American trained winners ran in Breeders' Cup Classic, finishing 1211 (exception ran in BC Mile)

2 of 5 American trained winners ran in Donn Handicap last time, finishing 21

2 of 5 American trained winners ran in San Antonio Handicap last time, finishing 12

2 of 5 American-trained winners ran in Goodwood Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 5 American-trained winners ran in Whitney Handicap, finishing 11

Trainers

USA-trained: 6-7-32

Godolphin: 3-1-16

France: 1-1-7

Japan: 1-1-15

South Africa: 0-4-11

Great Britain: 0-2-12

Other: 0-2-25

Since this race was inaugurated in 1996 American trainers have won 8 of 16 runnings. They have failed to produce placed finisher on only 3 occasions, in 2002 when they had only one representative at 20/1 and quite importantly in the past 2 years, the first 2 renewals run on tapeta instead of dirt. The new surface looks like it may have spelt the end of the US dominance in this.  

Saeed Bin Suroor (3-1-14) won the race 5 times between 1999 and 2006 but his 6 runners in the past 5 years have all finished unplaced.

Pascal Bary (1-1-3) and Katsuhiko Sumii (1-0-2) have trained the last 2 winners.

Mike De Kock (0-3-9) has seen 3 of his 9 runners make the frame, while Mahmood Al Zarooni (0-2-2) has saddled a placed finisher in past 2 runnings.

Price

From 2002 to 2008 every running of this race had gone to one of the first two in the betting but the last 3 winners have gone off 10/1, 16/1 & 12/1.

Favourites (4-3-10) have won of 4 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 1.76.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 or 5 (or previously won or placed in the World Cup)

·         Finished in the first 2 last time, posting an RPR of 119+

·         Run once or twice in 2012

·         Ran in the past 60 days

·         Won a grade/group 1

·         Won over 1M 2F

·         Course winner (or having first start here)

·         Won Round 2 or 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge

·         Finished in first 3 in Breeders Cup Classic and/or Goodwood Stakes

·         Finished in first 2 San Antonio or Donn Handicap last time

 Get your teeth into those trends and let me know what you think - cos my knowledge of the runners is pretty slim and guys from outside of the uk are asked to give their opinions

Good luck

 Bob

Thursday 29th march 2012

Yesterday racing was a bit of a wash out for me down on the day and the racing was rushed and done in a fog of incahol -- hopefully better results today 


at Newcastle G/frm - first hdle( its number 7 as well)  omitted which will help the ex flat horses and bumpers who have performed well on the fast surface -
4.20 Lucy Alexander is on the Newcastle swinger Kings Chorister currently 5/1 who travels well without finding a lot  now upped again in the handicap but has performed well on the track and ground though its best speed has been right handed has been a well beaten favorite -  I would never think of laying this profile horse before the race but instinct says a short priced lay will be on offer late and that's my route in. Lucinda has a very well handicapped Beat The Band in this under Campbell (Campbell is currently experiencing his best ever season in the saddle 33 winners and counting his favourite race is along distance chasing)  and it was a very good bumper horse on fast ground recording marks in the mid 90s. Its been let down by its hurdling since joining the yard have got the early 12/1 and shortening nicely - has been performing well in its schooling and is considered a summer horse by the yard 
Edit thank goodness did not lay that horse (though I did back the second who is now a nag me animal - BUTTTTTTTTTT  Beat The Band,, has struggled over hurdles for this yard but as a result has tumbled down the ratings. He has  had a wind operation and was well backed, but was under pressure and going nowhere some way from home what they do at Home does not translate to the track and we have to ask questions about this one now. On the other hand the twitter'd animal I took at a price  Urban Code gelded since a distant second at Musselburgh in November when blinkered for the first time, looked to be travelling best when taking charge, only to get mugged near the line. A winner three times on the Flat last year, he is reckoned a stuffy type and might just have needed this.
By the way he is most interested in the novice Kris Cross - make a notebook nag me for that one guys)
4.50 Rolecarr will do for me in this chase reckon its got 9lbs in hand for this track and distance 3miles right up its street ground not a problem and Lucy Alexander claim only run on this ground once and won well Absolute rubbish run from this horse who will have to be put out to grass for the summer me thinks


Ffoss las going is good though its a sunny day and could well get quicker
2.50 (and when will the master Bowen get his string running well - could it be today?) Durwen Pride has an improving profile, money for it this morning which is a plus, acts on the ground and track has to remain improving but back to 3miles and am on.  Edit another to put away for the summer something wrong or just plain jaded


4.30 Rio Gael not been seen for yonks 144 days is a typical horse for Bowen - not run well fresh and this would be an extreme distance - loves the ground thats true 6 wins on good or g/frim) has had entries but withdrawn the last month - will be watching him at his optimum of 2m2f and the current 16/1 betfair could give me an excellent trade. He has three in the race and that means he has little idea of the best of them - Taffy Thomas does have a chance aand Obrien rides this one - only 10-00 on its back attracts and went well g/frm at Chepstow so he should get the distance Pure Faith is a decent hrlder who can carry weight a specialist at Aintree and should be noted today for an entry there for the festival -- keep your eyes open for all three animals in the market cos the yard does like a punt   so you can see its a fascinating race - 
 Edit all three ran encouraging races really and can  be seen to win something before long but the yard form is dire


Horse to watch out for in my beloved hunter chasers was DollyDo  in the 5.05 Ffoss las under 16yr old rider  J Ponting who will make his mark looked really neat and maybe a rush of blood to the head was offered at big prices on betfair   made my day and both he and the horse are on my nag me list


Good Luck today - see you on twitter


Bob

Wednesday 28th March 2012

What a beautiful start to the day down here in Kent - checked the going this morning - bed soft patio good to firm --and that's about as accurate as the going forecasts are going to be.
Running the analyzer as I type for ground that is going to get faster no matter what the clerk of the course's say.
Yesterday was a great day for the satchel and Mark and myself  shared the craic on twitter much to ourselves and am really happy that we have some new guys to contribute -- making up your minds too early in the day is likely to be no other than pointers to previous form and last couple of days have put up trends for the tracks and that paid off so am going to continue on that theme --
Ludlow is definitively what you would call an easy track that suits galloper's - right handed and nice longish bends help to keep the momentum up - animals bred in Ireland have a good record as have chasers that have been predominantly hurdling here to good effect make the transition to fences well - today the ground is given as good g/firm in places and I have set my analyser to good to firm all round .
2.20 a fast ground hurdler - A Little Bit Dusty does have swinging form around the track - bred from Needwood Blade it has transferred from the flat 100% for the code and though its a claimer am happy to consider this one with the ground being so in its favor
 3.20 Esteem beaten by Arkarsahn here is a lovely moving animal for the track hdles last time is a plus for this animal
4.20 conditions also suit Changing The Guard who swings along this track and ground its last run needs to brush up its hdling but was its best effort and will improve for the ground - which it loved on the flat will be the best in for the distance watch for money the outsider Tayarat who can spring a surprise upped to this distance. 
4.50 never underestimate the quality of old boy Fairwood Present at this track has run the c/d 5 times never been out of the frame - a real horse for the track and a fast ground swinger


Taunton is a track I dont get right unless I am sat there and have seen the runners - away from the track not so hot - fields are small and that makes it very difficult to find value today -


3.10 small field and Beauchamp Viking is well in well capable this mark and fast ground animal Maid of Silk loves the ground and a Taunton swinger who could go well on its first chase


3.40 there could be big value in the 3.40 on Be Kind - decent claimer loves the track and ground and is well able to put up a bold show off this lower mark


 The Wee Lass in the bumper appeals but not that much though her breeding suggests she can carry this penalty and act on the ground shes a bit of a monkey and high wired so waiting to see the pictures


Some nag me horses running today -you should keep your eye on and will keep them for twitter as my lovely wife is urging me to get out into the sunshine Later there are some decent animals running at leopardstown that will keep for the twitter pages


good luck today am off out for a walk around the beach and lunch in splendid style


Bob






  

Tuesday 27th march 2012

Two NH cards and going is getting faster - some summer horses coming out early 


Hereford - not a track that has a great appeal  (horses for courses) nor conformation that make it unique for specific horse types. Its Right handed  generally flat, easy bends with a downhill run in, the fences are a bit stiffer than they look but decent galloping types are not greatly inconvenienced by the conformations - fast ground  Front running galloper's seem to handle it best and over the years have noted that horse I thought specifically better left handed can be changing legs effortlessly.  The going is predicted good g/frm in places with a sunny day - better to base assumptions on g/frm 


Market Rasen is very much a horses for courses track Right handed and undulating with sharp bends its often a really good back in running track  Todays Going is forecast as good with a sunny day in prospect the track normally is very good at getting the going spot on - It does not suit galloper's at all  though it does pay to be up with the pace as making up ground late is pretty tuff unless the horse has done it before on the ground! So when your looking for horses for courses always check it can run the ground.


And just one warning note on both tracks - the best prize race today is on the AW!!!! 2 grand more in fact.
Market Rasen 3.20 top prize today over the sticks and must be a target for the trainers who do well here - Pipe King and Reveley  are all around the 15% mark for the track  but there are no stats for this race from previous years -  VFB - pages 1 5 6 7 stats biggest plus is Cool Operator  though it is a hold up horse in the main it does have a turn of speed and could be a bet in running -was going extremely well under  Lucy Alexander last time when pecked and unseated   
James Reveley on the mare Karingreason attracts as a confirmed Market Rasen horse who the market usually gets about right loves the track and ground its way out in betting - and upped to 2m6f its wins round here she has gone up with the pace in small fields of her last 14 runs 8 have been round here - she has beaten the boys before  and I took the 11/1 this morning she should drop in the betting if the Reveley's fancy her today 
I dont like to bet Frosted Grape before the off  but am prepared to watch for a bet in running as it tends to hit a flat spot and spiral out in the betting - if its going well am inclined to back it then and take a lay short price  -  it loves the ground and is a stayer but very disappointing horse in the main. 


 Will hopefully meet you all on my twitter page for the races today https://twitter.com/#!/roberttaylor03

Bob

All at Towcester Monday 26th march 2012

Monday Towcester - up the cliff face will take some getting on this g//gfrm ground dont you think?  Will be going for some tuff old nuts today - four winners on last year's card are back to defend their crowns. For those of you who are interested, the four runners are:
 2.30 Meridiem
3.00 Tooka
4.00 Jolly Boys Outing
5.00 Lonesome Boatman

Mossmann Gorge in the 2.30 will love the ground and runs well fresh has a dodgepot feel to him everywhere else but this track gotta love this Jock 


3.00  have found soft race for Tooka to win this race again - runs well fresh Post ride Ikaroudu Road at newb was bril and is well in 


3.30 Pasture Bay will be up for this and ground not a worry - not many tuff nuts this race - bumper Kelso g/frm says hes got major chance 


4.0 Jolly Boys Outing for me runs this mark well ground ok is the improver in this fld on runs to date this term Jock gets on well with him 


4.30 will Lady Ida like the ground? will think shes nothing to carry and each way for me - cant see g/frm in breeding tuff nut for track 


5.00 Crystal Prince 9lbs better this track and ground staying of aft a mistk/hmprd last time here ideal conditions top trnr and jck in this 
bumper  5.30 - Pearls legend breeding attracts Cians Boy speed and ready - June French has improvement - decent bumper on paper to beat newbies 


 Good Luck today 


 Bob

Sunday 25th March 2012

well the flat season beckons but for me its a watching game notes - my experience over the years is the betting is all wrongggggggggggggg - form and gambles are erratic at the best and downright misleading - ok the Vfb is well able to give the first time out runners and time of year horses but honestly the jumps are the way to stay --
Hexham is a very stiff track indeed and there are not many going there today with past form experience you can guarantee -- the opener 2.10 is made up with some very unlikley candidates where Gotta Any Os is the form pick and has improved significantly for his wind operation - think they are trying this track and just to see how it fares up the climb -- its not good enough to say his win will have been proof he has the stamina off this mark and will pass him over for the mare OverPriced who really has a turn of speed  and had improved for handicap company last time and back into novice today.
2.40 Ruff Diamond has the Cim stats for this
3.10 Jackson Cage will not be beaten for the track thats for sure
4.10 Sir Tamberlan has it all nailed up for stamina and will be looking to see how Outlaw Tom performs early is a bit of a dodgpot but if hes up with the pace could well to be on the right side of if hes on a going day
4.40 Love Oh Right for this in a tuff race to call
5.10 take a long hard look at Red Danger Angel


Good Luck today


 Bob

Lingfield

1.50 Benbecula Motivator and you know how much I like his offspring.....but open to improvement yet ......VFB rated as88+ and Hannon & O'neilpotent force at Lingfield

2.25 Pale Orchid Low weight and with advantage of already having a run this season, seems like should improve and Timeform keen on horse

2.55 Noble Storm a front runner will take a lot of beating if can transfer fibresand form, and my old friend Borderlescott is reportedly on good form as good as ever.but he is an old boy!

3.25 See Bob's post..........nothing to add except I am in full agreement with his analysis

4.00 George Guru would seem to have all the attributes....MR+ improving, CDG winner has gone up 5lb since last win.and was second last time in a race not run to suit.....

4.35 Forgotten Hero seems to have had a number of hard-luck stories last year and was still on bridle when in trouble at Newmarket........but not a race to put the satchel on!

The Winter Derby 3.25 Lingfield Saturday 24th March

The Winter Derby takes place at Lingfield on Saturday 24th March. It is run over 1M 2F and is the first group race of the year run on the flat in Britain. The race was made a group 3 contest in 2006. Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-1-1

4yo: 5-5-48

5yo: 0-8-35

6yo: 4-1-25

7yo+: 1-5-25

Since the inauguration of this race in 1998, 13 of 14 winners were aged 4 to 6.

The only winner aged 7 was a multiple listed winner that was trained in Italy, having his first run in GB.

Official Rating

Horses rated 100 or higher: 9-15-70  Horses rated 99 or lower: 0-4-43  Horses with no rating: 1-1-21

9 of last 10 winners were officially rated 100 or higher and the exception did not have an official rating as it was his first start in Britain but did win a listed race by 2 lengths on previous start.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 others finished 2nd & 4th in listed, other was 10th in group 1)

10 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 all-weather starts

7 of 10 winners had already run that year (3 of last 4 were having first run that year)

9 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further

8 of 10 winners had previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather

10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather

6 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start)

10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above

Since the race became a group 3, 5 of 6 winners had won a listed or group race

10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 14K+

Other Races

Lingfield Winter Derby Trial winner Junoob: 1191296 (3-1-7) is currently 11/2 from 6/1 Friday 23rd is rated 95 and below the trend winners but is drawn 2 which is a plus and won the trial here won going away (op 9-2) This trial has produced the Winter Derby winner five times since then turn of the millennium, with four of them going on to the main event following a victory. The latest running wasn´t that strong a race and they went a slow pace. JUNOOB cost just 3,500gns out of John Dunlop´s yard last October, and changed hands again for only £12,000 after winning the second of two claimers for Amy Weaver over this C&D in December. You won´t find many shrewder claims, with the gelding having now progressed enough to take this Listed prize. He wasn´t at his best when beaten off 95 here on his previous start, having been asked to lead, but return to hold-up tactics, as well as the re-fitting of blinkers, did the trick and he quickened up smartly under a confident ride. His change of pace should see him have a say tomorrow

lingfieldpark.co.uk Handicap winner (Emerald Wilderness): 161620 (2-1-6) Now 8 yrs old

Quebec Stakes winner (Tinshu): 1 (1-0-1)

Blue Square Bet Handicap winner (Emma's Gift): 00487 (0-0-5)

4 of 10 winners had run in the Lingfield Winter Derby Trial, finishing 1113

3 of 10 winners had won Lingfield handicap over 1M 2F to 1M 4F in Jan/Feb

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Quebec Stakes, finishing 51

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Churchill Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Wildflower Stakes, finishing 92

2 of 10 winners ran in the James Seymour Stakes, finishing 23

Trainers

Richard Hannon (1-1-6) and Sylvester Kirk (1-0-1) are the only 2 trainers with entries this year to have trained the winner in the past 10 years.

Clive Cox (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up last year. David Barron hasn’t saddled a runner in this in past 10 years, his last runner in the race was Sergeant York in 2001, who won at 25/1.

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 7-8-70

Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-12-64

There is slight preference for horses drawn 7 or lower.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below.

No very strong trend on the prices with 8 of the 10 winners coming from the first 5 in the betting but there have been a few surprises at 25/1 and 14/1 in last 10 years.

Favourites (5-1-12) have won of 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.25.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 6

·         Officially rated 100+

·         Won last time out (or ran well in a class 1 race)

·         Won over 1M 2F+

·         Won 1 of last 2 all-weather starts

·         Previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather

·         Course winner (or having first start at Lingfield)

·         Won at listed or group race worth 14K+

·         Drawn 1 to 7

·         Priced 8/1 or below

Its hard to look past the trends when you look at the entries - Sooraah 5yr old drawn 4  is interesting in that it put up a very good time when winning at Meydan in a £42000 race has run here and a listed race at ascot under its belt - when it ran at Lingfield it was given too much to do over the 8flngs finishing best of all and this distance is well within her remit and is a very strong Filly indeed I have taken an ante post price for the win with her as I expect it to tumble if she is on song

will be going for the reverse forecast bet with this one and Junoob


 Bob