The Winter Derby 3.25 Lingfield Saturday 24th March

The Winter Derby takes place at Lingfield on Saturday 24th March. It is run over 1M 2F and is the first group race of the year run on the flat in Britain. The race was made a group 3 contest in 2006. Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-1-1

4yo: 5-5-48

5yo: 0-8-35

6yo: 4-1-25

7yo+: 1-5-25

Since the inauguration of this race in 1998, 13 of 14 winners were aged 4 to 6.

The only winner aged 7 was a multiple listed winner that was trained in Italy, having his first run in GB.

Official Rating

Horses rated 100 or higher: 9-15-70  Horses rated 99 or lower: 0-4-43  Horses with no rating: 1-1-21

9 of last 10 winners were officially rated 100 or higher and the exception did not have an official rating as it was his first start in Britain but did win a listed race by 2 lengths on previous start.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 others finished 2nd & 4th in listed, other was 10th in group 1)

10 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 all-weather starts

7 of 10 winners had already run that year (3 of last 4 were having first run that year)

9 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further

8 of 10 winners had previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather

10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather

6 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start)

10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above

Since the race became a group 3, 5 of 6 winners had won a listed or group race

10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 14K+

Other Races

Lingfield Winter Derby Trial winner Junoob: 1191296 (3-1-7) is currently 11/2 from 6/1 Friday 23rd is rated 95 and below the trend winners but is drawn 2 which is a plus and won the trial here won going away (op 9-2) This trial has produced the Winter Derby winner five times since then turn of the millennium, with four of them going on to the main event following a victory. The latest running wasn´t that strong a race and they went a slow pace. JUNOOB cost just 3,500gns out of John Dunlop´s yard last October, and changed hands again for only £12,000 after winning the second of two claimers for Amy Weaver over this C&D in December. You won´t find many shrewder claims, with the gelding having now progressed enough to take this Listed prize. He wasn´t at his best when beaten off 95 here on his previous start, having been asked to lead, but return to hold-up tactics, as well as the re-fitting of blinkers, did the trick and he quickened up smartly under a confident ride. His change of pace should see him have a say tomorrow

lingfieldpark.co.uk Handicap winner (Emerald Wilderness): 161620 (2-1-6) Now 8 yrs old

Quebec Stakes winner (Tinshu): 1 (1-0-1)

Blue Square Bet Handicap winner (Emma's Gift): 00487 (0-0-5)

4 of 10 winners had run in the Lingfield Winter Derby Trial, finishing 1113

3 of 10 winners had won Lingfield handicap over 1M 2F to 1M 4F in Jan/Feb

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Quebec Stakes, finishing 51

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Churchill Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Wildflower Stakes, finishing 92

2 of 10 winners ran in the James Seymour Stakes, finishing 23

Trainers

Richard Hannon (1-1-6) and Sylvester Kirk (1-0-1) are the only 2 trainers with entries this year to have trained the winner in the past 10 years.

Clive Cox (0-1-1) saddled the runner-up last year. David Barron hasn’t saddled a runner in this in past 10 years, his last runner in the race was Sergeant York in 2001, who won at 25/1.

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 7-8-70

Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-12-64

There is slight preference for horses drawn 7 or lower.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below.

No very strong trend on the prices with 8 of the 10 winners coming from the first 5 in the betting but there have been a few surprises at 25/1 and 14/1 in last 10 years.

Favourites (5-1-12) have won of 5 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 4.25.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 6

·         Officially rated 100+

·         Won last time out (or ran well in a class 1 race)

·         Won over 1M 2F+

·         Won 1 of last 2 all-weather starts

·         Previously run 1 to 5 times on the all-weather

·         Course winner (or having first start at Lingfield)

·         Won at listed or group race worth 14K+

·         Drawn 1 to 7

·         Priced 8/1 or below

Its hard to look past the trends when you look at the entries - Sooraah 5yr old drawn 4  is interesting in that it put up a very good time when winning at Meydan in a £42000 race has run here and a listed race at ascot under its belt - when it ran at Lingfield it was given too much to do over the 8flngs finishing best of all and this distance is well within her remit and is a very strong Filly indeed I have taken an ante post price for the win with her as I expect it to tumble if she is on song

will be going for the reverse forecast bet with this one and Junoob


 Bob