two great days one baaaad day and One day to Go Cheltenham 2012

Satchel is bulging and  plenty to play with for today -- usually i start slow end big but 4 winning favorites yesterday cooked that days bets - onwards and upwards  


1.30 JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1 is always a bit of a lottery but small stakes exciting race Nowadays the race is usually won by a horse prominent in the market.Fillies (1-1-15) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 15 runners. Considering they represented less than 7% of the total runners, they actually do better than average.   
Won last time out in the past 18 to 45 days

·         Run in 2 to 6 hurdles and won at least half of them

·         Won at class 3 or higher

·         Won a hurdles race by 7 or more lengths

·         Run on the flat and by a group 1-winning sire

·         Won the Adonis or Finesse Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle

·         Won a Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury

·         Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Philip Hobbs

·         From first 4 in the betting

 Take a good long hard look at Kings animals both fit the profile Gremeti under Robert Thornton and Hutchinson only ride on Balder Success - unbeaten and easy winner of its four starts and Hutchinson has got to know him well 

2.05 oldest horse in last 10 yers was 9 and weights are below 10-13 Citezenship  is the big improver in the field and will be hard to beat off this mark  the win in the Boylesports at Leopardstown, impressing with the way in which he made up a tremendous amount of ground and won going away; that race has been a good source of County winners in the past and Mrs Harrington won this contest in 2003 Court In Session is a lively outsider for this race has had a prep on the fibre sand loves the track and ground and any money this stable will be significant  loves this quicker ground 

  Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham 2.40 today  BRINDISI BREEZE.  - Haydock  180212 Gillies rode won so well blogged it Plenty of really good horses have won this in the past, and many have gone on to make their mark over fences in due course. However, this was a huge performance from the front-runner. He was a really impressive winner at Newcastle in deep ground before and defended an unbeaten record over hurdles in this, but this performance lifted his profile to another level and he can rightly be considered a solid candidate today The niggling doubt will be his ability to handle ground much quicker than he encountered here.but its bumper run on good ground where he was green (and bumped at a critical stage says he will handle it  He´s a smart prospect.


3.20 the Gold Cup - Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-102) have won the last 10 runnings.

Horses aged 10+ (0-6-48) have gained no wins and 6 places in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. The 6 placed finishers aged 10+ were either former Gold Cup winners or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National.9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 11 chases in their career (Kuato Star winning it a second time was exception)

8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had each finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+)

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase

SO you pays your money and you takes your chance 

I cannot have kauto Star at any price for reasons already spelt out - if it wins will cheer the ole boy home thats for sure 

Long Run under the dentist has had its gold cup already and returning to win a second year is fraught -- Burton Port will go better today though not the class for this and therefore with the iffy Jumping of The Giant Bolster a worry its breeding suggests it is in with a bigger shout than its current price and can it going well as is Time For Rupert --- my pin falls on Midnight chase under Costello horse was not right last year and Costello was injured so could not take the ride he loves the track and ground his age is against him but holds the cards 

Foxhunters chase 4.00  I love hunter chases they embody the sport to a tee -

Salsify only 7 yr old could see it was going to win the  biggest hunter chase  in Ireland from half way it was that good 120212 analyser horse nowWon two of the top Irish hunter chases last Spring Traditionally as strong a hunter chase as you will get all year in Ireland, and with the ground drying out everything came right for SALSIFY. He won what are traditionally the two top spring hunter chases at Fairyhouse and Punchestown last year, and with him coming into form seemingly a bit earlier this time around  the ground is very much in his favour. The winner raced quite keenly while being held up, travelled up strongly to lead coming to the last and found plenty from the final fence. His form on better ground would entitle him to be considered among the top two or three hunter chasers around on this side of the water,  And if your watching the race replay it showed that the unconsidered  but consistent Not Before Eight possibly ran his best race of the season, staying on well and would have got up for third in another stride. He does see out his races well and is known to stay 3m5f, is a very sneaky outsider at a big price as he´ll be finishing strongly.

 I love hunter chases they embody the sport to a tee - Blackstaff is a really sound each way bet on its running at Sandown last but its a strong front runner who though getting 3miles well has been set up for this race by a good yard and a very good claimer likes cheltenham and from the family of two Grand National winners, was seriously progressive in points and made a smooth transition to regulation fences when impressively beating a reliable 116-rated rival at Exeter.

 Good Luck today enjoy the finest jumps racing in the world we are very lucky people

 Bob