The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 31st March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.
Trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-8-72
5yo: 1-9-67
6yo: 3-6-53
7yo: 0-4-23
8yo+: 0-3-11
4yoS have won 6 of the last 9 runnings
4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 85% of the runners.
There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-1 or more: 3-10-55
Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 7-12-107
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 0-8-64
7 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-0 and all 10 winners carried at least 8-9.
Horses running with a penalty (1-5-16) have a solid record with 6 of 16 making the frame, and 1 winning.
Top weight: 0017002760 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 95 or higher: 8-20-126
Horses rated 94 or lower: 2-10-100
8 of 10 winners (including the last 4) were officially rated 95 or higher.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (4 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain
8 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) previously gained 2 to 4 career wins
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won no more than 3 handicaps
10 of 10 winners won over 1M or further
8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
0 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
9 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3
Only 1 of 10 winners won a class 1 race (listed)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Sweet Lightning): 0090 (0-0-4)
Highest placed finisher from Home Of Racing H'cap to run in this: 4184203 (1-4-7)
Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Nazreef): 0300 (0-1-4)
Racing And Football Outlook Conditions Stakes winner (Mia's Boy): 6 (0-0-1)
Molson Coors Noel Cannon Memorial Trophy winner (Leviathan): 6 (0-0-1)
Bunbury Cup winer (Brae Hill): 8 (0-0-1)
baden-racing.com Handicap winner (Captain Ramius): 00 (0-0-2)
williamhill.com Ayrshire Handicap winner (Don't Call Me): 805 (0-0-3)
Play Golf Before Racing At Southwell Handicap winner (Reve De Nuit): 000 (0-0-3)
Previous season's Spring Mile winner (Eton Forever): 0R0 (0-0-3)
Layla Hotel Earl Grosvenor Handicap winner (Kyllachy Star): 000 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tote International Stakes, finishing 90
5 of 10 winners had their last turf run at Newmarket the previous October/November
Mull Of Killough finished 5th in the Home Of Racing Handicap at Newmarket in October, winning his side but was clearly at a disadvantage from a high draw and that race is usually a good pointer for the Lincoln.
Since 2000 Record of first 5 from Home Of Racing H'cap in this: 0010143015400203 (3-5-16)
Trainers
William Haggas (2-0-3) has won the race twice in the past 5 years.
John Quinn (1-1-6) trained Blythe Knight to win the race in 2006 and finish 2nd in 2008.
Michael Dods (1-0-3) and John Gosden (1-0-4) have each trained the winner in the past 3 years
Richard Fahey (0-5-20) has yet to train the winner of the race but he has had 5 placed finishers in the last 10 runnings. David Barron (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the frame.
Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Dandy Nicholls (0-0-13), Richard Hannon (0-0-10) and Tim Easterby (0-0-4) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 27 combined runners.
Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2000-2011)
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-15-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-8-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-7-86
Horses drawn 7 or below have won 5 of the last 10 from 31% of the total runners.
8 of 10 winners were drawn within 6 stalls of the Spring Mile winner
Price
6 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or below.
There have been a few shocks in the past decade but 6 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 in the betting.
Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of the last runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 to 6 (4yos especially)
· Carrying 8-9 to 9-0
· Officially rated 95 or higher
· Won one of last three races
· Finished in first 3 last time out
· Posted their highest RPR in last two runs
· Having first run of the season
· Won over 1M+
· Gained 2 to 4 career wins
· Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
· Previously won a class 2 or higher (or won a class 3 last time out)
· Won a race worth 11K+
· Finished in first 5 in the Home Of Racing H’cap at Newmarket in October
· Drawn 1-7 (or within 6 stalls of the Spring Mile winner)
· Priced 10/1 or below (favourite especially)
· Trained by William Haggas or David Barron
Its a fun race guys thats all it is I know how exciting it is for the first big race and there is no way you can have only one animal running for you - watch for the bias from the early race but dont be completely fooled by that result - look to the trends look for the pace - back the winner
Bob
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