The Grimthorpe handicap chase takes place at Doncaster at 3.25 on Saturday 3rd March. It's a class 2 handicap chase run over 3M 2F, which is seen as a trial for the Aintree and Midlands Grand Nationals. GOING: GOOD (Selective watering Thursday; GoingStick 9.1). (Light rain)
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (only 8 runnings):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-4
7yo: 0-2-9
8yo: 2-4-14
9yo: 2-3-20
10yo: 3-2-15
11yo+: 1-3-15
7 of 8 winners were aged 8 to 10 though they accounted for approximately 63.6% of total runners
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 2-7-34
Horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 6-8-43
Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won 6 of the last 8. The two exceptions carried 11-9 & 11-12 and had been placed in a listed handicap chase over 3M+ that season.
Top Weight: 3P1P68P46 (1-1-9)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or higher: 2-4-29
Horses rated 136 or lower: 6-11-48
No very strong trends here but horses rated 136 or lower have won 6 of last 8 and filled 74% of the places from 62.3% of the total runners.
The 2 winners who were rated over 136 were Cloudy Lane, who had won the Kim Muir and Tommy Whittle Handicap chase, and Grey Abbey, who had won a grade 2 novice chase and had been placed in the race 2 years previous.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 8 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (5 won)
8 of 8 winners ran over 2M 7F or further on last start
7 of 8 winners had run in past 40 days
8 of 8 winners had run 2 to 5 times since August
7 of 8 winners were 3rd or 4th season chasers (exception was a 2nd season chaser who won the Kim Muir as a novice)
8 of 8 winners won a chase over 2M 7F or further at a left handed track
7 of 8 winners posted highest RPR in a chase over 2M 4F+ at a left-handed track
7 of 8 winners (last 7) ran in 13 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 8 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases
4 of 8 winners had won or placed at Doncaster (other 4 having first course start)
Other Races
Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Junior): 1 (1-0-1)
Grand National winner (Ballabriggs): 7 (0-0-1)
Becher Chase winner (West End Rocker): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 8 winners ran in previous season's Irish National, finishing PU
Trainers
Donald McCain (1-1-3) has saddled Cloudy Lane to gain a win and a place in this.
Nicky Henderson (1-0-1) trained the winner 2010.
Sue Smith (0-2-7) has gained 2 places from her 7 runners and Brian Ellison (0-1-1) has seen his one runner since 2002 in this make the frame.
Price
7 of 8 winners (last 7) were priced between 3/1 and 11/2
Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals with Skillwise at 20/1 in 2002, the only winner in the past 10 years coming from outside the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (1-2-10) have a poor record in this, gaining just 1 win and 2 places from 10 runners since 2002.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 8 to 10
· Carrying 10-11 or less (or placed in a class 1 chase this season)
· Officially rated 136 or lower
· Finished in first 4 over 2M 7F on last start in past 40 days
· Third or fourth season chaser
· Run in 13 or fewer handicap chases (winning 1 to 3)
· Won a 2M 7F+ chase at a left-handed track
· Previously won or placed at Doncaster (or having first course start)
· Trained by Donald McCain or Nicky Henderson
· Priced between 3/1 and 11/2
currently there are only 7 runners with two out of the handicap proper -
Ikorodu Road 9-13, and Pentiffic 9-7
those rated 136 or lower are Neptune Equester (132) Mac Aeda (131) Ikorodu Road(130) Pentiffic (124)
of these Mac Aeda is a very strong candidate - a confirmed stayer who won its last race very convincingly off a strong gallop and the Jeffeson yard very strong at the moment. he does not want the ground too fast but is one very upward spiral grey http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,483965,00.html he tends to back off his fences and has a throw near front fore but stays forever up in grade off a feather weight and this could well be his target for the season !
I have a love for West end Rocker as anyone reading the blog will know an he's done us proud this season and is my list for the national he has to find his gear, he jumps from fence to fence and he wants these big, galloping tracks has been raised a massive 12lbs for this race but he won the class 1 so well last time it hurt - http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,473401,00.html
more tomorrow when we know the ground for sure - study the form and stats and let me know what attracts you
Bob
3 comments:
Im attracted to Mac Aeda on video off this weight in this race and I like West End Rocker and Benny Be Good especially over 3m2f I expect more from him. Junior just doesnt look like before anymore. Mac Aeda, West End Rocker and Benny Be Good, but its a tight affair. The trends confirm a bet on Mac Aeda and he has huge weight drop down. Neptune Equester and Pentific I would rule out.Also Ikorodu Road, he was strong late last race, but he doesnt look the same league physical like the three mentioned. I thought Benny Be Googs last race was very strong opposition an hes a strong physical type that needs more distance off very strong pace. There is two front runners and all three Mac Aeda, Benny Be Good, West End Rocker like this.
Will not analyse anymore races today pre, will be there on the wall, but this race here when I look at the odds, should not be played from my impression, with real or high stakes. West End Rocker could be a class act here, but on the other side the weight trends are massive for this race and all are 4.0 BSP around and its hard to pick two 4.0 animals valuewise.
agree totally that point Ben -- the ground could well be too quick for the Rocker anyway -- and the match is too close unless your looking for a big price in running
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