The Paddy Power Imperial Cup is a 2M ½F listed handicap hurdle run at Sandown - Previous sponsors of the race, Sunderlands, offered a £75K bonus to any winner who went on to win at the Festival the following week and it’s good to see that current sponsors, Paddy Power, have continued the offer, recently achieved by Gaspara in 2007.
Below we take a look at the past 10 runnings to attempt to find some pointers:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 2-1-8
5yo: 3-6-42
6yo: 3-9-62
7yo: 1-9-52
8yo: 0-4-18
9yo: 1-1-14
10yo+: 0-0-5
Younger horses have fared better in recent years, especially 4yos who have gained 2 wins and a place from 8 runners (which improves to 2 wins and 1 place from 4 runners when only including 4yos priced less than 25/1)
Horses aged 4 to 6: 8-16-112
Horses aged 7 or older: 2-14-89
8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 to 6
5 of 5 winners aged 4 or 5 came from the Pipe stable
Both winners aged 7+ were novice hurdlers who'd been placed in group company on the flat.
Breeding
French bred: 5-5-54
Irish bred: 3-9-55
British bred: 1-11-60
German bred: 1-3-20
Other: 0-2-12
8 of 10 winners were French or Irish bred, and they only represented 54.2% of the total runners in the past 10 runnings.
Both 4yos winners were French bred.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 4-16-91
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 6-14-110
No majorly significant trend with regard to weights though the last 8 winners all carried less than 11-0.
Top Weight: 067P080000F (0-0-11) has a poor record in this.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 131 or higher: 2-7-61
Horses rated 121 to 130: 5-18-105
Horses rated 120 or lower: 3-5-35
The official ratings of the winners have been spread out, though in past 5 years horses officially rated 123 to 130 have won 4 of 5 and filled 14 of 20 places.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start
7 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 starts (2 of 3 exceptions were 2nd last time)
9 of 10 winners had their last run between 21 and 55 days ago
9 of 10 winners posted highest MR -RPR last time (1 exception did so on penultimate start)
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 2 handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than twice over hurdles in GB & Ire
8 of 10 winners were novice hurdlers
10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 hurdles since August
0 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded hurdle
6 of 10 winners ran on the flat (5 of those were rated 90 or higher)
Only 3 of 10 winners had previously run at Sandown (all had 1 start, 2 had won & other was placed in a listed h'cap hurdle)
2 of 2 winners aged 4 had contested a graded hurdle that season
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Betfair. Don't Settle For Less H’cap Hurdle: 121P (2-1-4)
Bathwick Tyres Yeovil Handicap Hurdle winner (Chesil Beach Boy - Johns Spirit was third): 4 (0-1-1)
Best Odds Guaranteed williamhill.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Lucanidubai): 40 (0-1-2)
Bet @bluesq.com Handicap Hurdle winner (Pateese): 30P (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners won a Taunton Novice Hurdle that season
2 of 10 winners ran in Betfair. Don't Settle For Less H’cap Hurdle at Ascot, finishing 10
2 of 10 winners ran in Betfred 1350 Shops Nationwide Introductory Hurdle, finishing 31
Trainers
David Pipe (2-2-8) has carried on the great tradition his father Martin (3-2-15), he has trained the winner in '07 and '08 and his two runners in 2009 finished 2nd and 4th. His record with 4yos is 2 wins and 1 place from 3 runners.
Philip Hobbs (1-3-10) trained the first 2 home in 2010 and also the 3rd place in 2009 & 2011.
Lucy Wadham (1-2-9) and Nicky Henderson (1-1-13) have also both trained the winner in past 3 years.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-10) and Gary Moore (0-2-12) have each saddled 2 placed runners in the past 10 runnings.
Irish trainers (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 11 runners since 2002.
Price
6 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 14/1
Favourites (6-2-11) have done particularly well, winning 6 of the last 10 renewals, (level stakes profit of 13.03).
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 to 6 (especially 4 or 5yos from Pipe stable)
· French or Irish bred
· Carrying less than 11-0
· Officially rated 123 to 130
· Finished in first 3 on last start, 21 to 55 days ago
· Posted highest RPR last time out
· Run 1 to 5 times since August
· Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles (won no more than twice)
· Novice hurdler
· Run in no more than 2 handicap hurdles
· Won at no higher than class 2 level over hurdles
· Previously won or placed at Sandown (or having first course start)
· NH bred or officially rated 90+ on the flat
· Trained by David Pipe, Phillip Hobbs or Lucy Wadham
more tomorrow when we know the ground !
Bob
1 comment:
Hi Bob, tommorrow I have time to hang out with you on the wall, when you are there. Sunday is open.
Next week is big work time for me absolutely no time during the week.
See ya soon.
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