Kerry National Handicap Chase 190912

Kerry National Handicap Chase takes place on Wednesday 19th September and is the highlight of the 7-day Listowel Festival. It is a 3 mile Grade A handicap chase that has been won by some useful chasers in the past, including subsequent Grand National winner, Monty’s Pass, in 2002.

 the rain was tanking down today so this is going to be a grueling contest  you are going to need a mudlark who jumps well round here and can stayyyyyyyyyyyyy

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-1

6yo: 2-1-13

7yo: 4-8-36

8yo: 3-6-46

9yo: 1-11-48

10yo+: 0-4-31

Horses aged 5 to 8: 9-15-96

Horses aged 9 or older: 1-15-79

The last 9 winners were all aged 6 to 8.

No horse aged 10 or over has won this in last 10 years from 31 runners (17.3% of total runners).

orses officially rated 135 or higher have won the last 4 renewals and filled 10 of 16 places since 2008.

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start

8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases

9 of 10 winners (last 9) were second or third season chasers

10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further

7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 16K+

9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase

8 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (1 exception had never run at Listowel before)

6 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles

4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Kerry National, finishing 2311

3 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 665

2 of 10 winners ran in the Topham Chase, finishing 2F

2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34

6 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival, finishing 544044

Racing Style

8 of 10 winners (last 6) settled in mid-division or tracked leaders

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1

Favourites (1-6-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00 since 2002.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 8

·         Carrying 10-10 or more

·         Officially rated 135 or higher

·         Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)

·         Ran over hurdles last time out

·         Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases

·         Second or third season chaser

·         Gained 2 to 4 previous chase wins

·         Won over 2M 3F+

·         Won a chase worth 16K+

·         Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival

·         Finished in first 4 in a chase at 2012 Cheltenham Festival

·         First 5 in 2011 Kerry National and/or Munster National

·         Finished in first 6 in the 2012 Galway Plate

·         Trained by W Mullins, E McNamara or A J Martin

·         Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty

·         Priced between 4/1 to 10/1