The Portland 150912

This is always a cavalry charge and it pays to stick with hold up animals as they burn themselves out in front - the draw assists the higher stalls (drawn 13 or higher have won 7 of last 9 running's at Doncaster.)

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 5 or older

·         Carrying 8-12 to 9-6

·         Officially rated 94 to 101

·         Run at least 3 times in 2011

·         Won or placed last time (or unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)

·         Ran in last 35 days in a class 3 or better

·         Won at class 2 level or higher

·         Won over 5F and 6F

·         Won a handicap with 14+ runners

·         Previously contested a group sprint

·         Ran in the Great St Wilfrid and/or Stewards Cup/Sprint

·         Ran in Al Rayan H’cap, Scottish Stewards Cup and/or Epsom Dash

·         Drawn in 13 or higher

·         Hold-up horses favoured

·         Priced between 11/1 and 20/1

 The ground is drying all the time and you can expect it to be good to firm by race time 

of the holdup fast finishers 5+ you can include Doc Hayes and Ancient Cross  - (Face The Problem is a good hold up horse aged 4) all well drawn high and all within the weight range  Kingsgate Choice also has the credentials but its low drawn 1 makes it difficult - and as there is no earlier 5fngs it wont be as helpful to see how significant it will be Bajan Tryst was a fast finishing horse in the stewards cup and has lee on board (won on him before)

Picabo from the candy yard is a trail blazer who has improved with every race on g/frm ground - has made all over 6lngs and though up 9lbs from his last blistering run in a really good race i still make this one 4lbs well in - well drawn and has improved every run with the hood . well drawn has the pace for 6flngs and will be able to stay on 

this is an each way race for me and the style of Doc Hay  its staying on ability and recent form says its way overpriced at 25/1 currently