The Ayr Gold Cup Saturday 22nd September 2012

The Ayr Gold Cup, which takes place on the Saturday 22nd September, is the most valuable sprint handicap run in Europe. Run over 6 furlongs, it has been dominated in recent years by Dandy Nicholls. Horses that don’t make the cut for this run in the Silver Cup earlier on Saturday and the Bronze Cup earlier on Saturday  both races can often provide clues to the best place to be drawn. But Dont Count on it!!!!!

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-2-30

4yo: 4-7-78

5yo: 3-11-63

6yo+: 2-7-42

7yo+: 0-3-48

Horses aged between 4 and 6 have won 9 of the last 10, though that age group has represented around 70% of the total runners.

Horses aged 7 or older have not won the race since 1993 and only 3 of their 48 representatives in the last 10 years have made the frame.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-6 or over: 2-5-33

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-5: 5-15-98

Horses carrying 8-6 to 8-13: 3-8-113

Horses carrying 8-5 or less: 0-2-17

6 of the last 7 winners carried over 9-0 including a horse allotted 9-1 with a 5lb claimer. The first 4 home in past 3 years all carried 9-0 or more.

Horses carrying a penalty: 1-6-26

Top weight: 0030092003700 (0-3-13)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 101 or higher: 2-12-78

Horses rated 90 to 100: 8-17-173

Horses rated 89 or less: 0-1-10

In recent years the trend has been towards higher rated horses. The last 7 winners were all rated between 97 and 105, while 25 of 28 placed horses in the past 7 years were rated 97+.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

9 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season

8 of 10 winners had gained no more than 1 win that season (5 hadn't won)

8 of 10 winners had won over at 6 furlongs (2 exceptions won over 7F)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better

7 of 10 winners had run in a listed or group race

8 of 10 winners had their last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a race with 14+ runners in it

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Our Jonathan): 050500 (0-0-6)

Qatar Racing Handicap winner (Maarek): 834405 (0-3-6)

Symphony Group Stakes winner (Tax Free): 2 (0-1-1)

Betfair Summer Double Second Leg winner (Imperial Guest): 2 (0-1-1)

Bond Tyres Stakes winner (Sholaan): 002 (0-1-3)

Chipchase Stakes winner (Maarek): 030 (0-1-3)

Stewards Cup winner (Hawkeythenoo): 200 (0-1-3)

bet365.com Conditions Stakes winner (Alben Star): 5040 (0-1-4)

Betfred "The Bonus King" Be Friendly Handicap winner (Cheviot): 08 (0-0-2)

Bullet Sprint Stakes winner (Borderlescott): 00 (0-0-2)

Cammidge Trophy winner (The Cheka): 00 (0-0-2)

Go Racing In Kildare Handicap winner (Maarek): 90 (0-0-2)

Michael Foster Memorial Stakes winner (Justonefortheroad): 06 (0-0-2)

Portland Handicap winner (Doc Hay): 000000 (0-0-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 0000

4 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 0042

2 of 10 winners ran in Portland Handicap last time, finishing 40

2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham Handicap, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in Buckingham Palace, finishing 18

2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Stewards Cup, finishing 40

 Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 9: 3-12-90

Horses drawn 10 to 18: 5-12-90

Horses drawn 19 or higher: 2-6-81

The winners have come from all over the track.  In 5 running's on good or firmer 4 winners came from the middle.

Price

9 of 10 winners (last 7) were priced between 10/1 and 20/1

There has been no winner priced shorter than 10/1 in last 10 years. The longest priced winner in past 10 years has been 33/1 (2004).

Favourites (0-3-11) have a shocking record in this race having failed to win any of the last 10 and only finding 3 places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

we do not have a clue what the ground will be so this is by way of an early posting - will give a summary and my thoughts nearer the day if not the day!

Bob