Epsom Oaks and Derby 2012

For those of you who have not been to either meeting and taking your first punts in these races take a look at this really informative Video by Lydia Hislop  supreme horse and jockey is required and betting is all about paddock and parade visuals --- over the years have watched horses lose it in the noisiest parade ring parade and canter to the start .. no matter how good you think your animal/jockey is this is the time to watch watch watch....
http://www.skysports.com/video/inline/0,26691,19978_7786614,00.html


only time I have not been to this meeting in 73 years is 5 (yep went there as a babe in arms when the whole family went there from Monday onward's) I am one of the old school - but the truth is the calmest horse with ability and stamina wins the races and the horse that cannot take the hurly burly will lose. Race hardened Jockeys cannot get the horse home if its already sweated buckets getting to the post.


 The Investec Oaks takes place on Friday 1st June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. There have been a couple of upsets recently with Look Here at 33/1 in 2008 and Dancing Rain at 20/1 last year landing the prize.

2yo Form

E B F "Makfi" Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (The Fugue): 01 (1-0-2)

Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Maybe): 245 (0-1-3)

Silver Flash Stakes winner (Maybe): 50 (0-0-2)

Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile winner: 64 (0-0-2)

Highest finisher from Fillies' Mille to run in this: 016916040 (2-0-9)

Debutante Stakes winner (Maybe): 45 (0-0-2)

Montrose Stakes winner (Coquet): 684 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 22

3yo Form

Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Vow): 801541 (2-0-6)

Height Of Fashion Stakes winner (Coquet): 622716 (1-2-6)

Musidora Stakes winner (The Fugue): 8338516 (1-2-7)

Pretty Polly Stakes winner (Kailani): 0510000 (1-0-7)

Irish 1000 Guineas winner: 2 (0-1-1)

Salsabil Stakes winner (Kissed): 257 (0-1-3)

Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Vow): 779029 (0-1-6)

2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21

The last 8 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

Other 2 winners ran in English 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 16

Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, though 2 of the last 4 winners have been priced between 20/1 and 33/1.

Favourites (4-2-11) have a good recent record in this having won 4 of the last 10 and showing a level stakes profit of 2.71 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2

·         Dosage Index of around 1.06

·         Centre of Distribution of around 0.10

·         Had 1 or 2 runs this season

·         Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR -MR last time

·         Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)

·         Won over 1M+

·         Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)

·         Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial

·         Finished in first 2 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo

·         Trained by Henry Cecil or William Haggas

·         Favourite does well

*****************************************************************

The Investec Derby takes place on Saturday 2nd June and this year’s race will see Camelot look to emulate the achievement of Sea The Stars in 2009, by winning both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts

10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts

10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on all starts that season

7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)

9 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 118+ last time out

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days

5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions not run in a group 1 as a 2yo)

9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce in 2010, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)

9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in

6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)

9 of 10 winners had first run as a 2yo over 7F or 8F (7 of 9 at a group 1 track)

The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 39 times before winning the race. In those 39 starts they had finished outside first 3 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on first run as 2yo.

 2yo Form

Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 106116 (3-0-6)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111

2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 3 Irish-trained winners made debut in 7F Darley EBF Maiden at Curragh

3yo Form

Dante Stakes winner (Bonfire): 391101203 (3-3-9)

2000 Guineas winner (Camelot): 01 (1-0-2)

Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 247011045 (2-1-9)

Dee Stakes winners (Astrology): 15080 (1-0-5)

Chester Vase winner (Mikdaam): 566054502 (0-1-9)

Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Main Sequence): 804093670 (0-1-9)

4 of 6 British-trained winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112

3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221

Price

10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.

Favourites (3-4-11) have won 3 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 1.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+

·         Montjeu’s progeny do well

·         Born before 07/04/2009

·         Dosage index of around 1.15

·         Centre of Distribution of around 0.24

·         Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track

·         Run 2 to 5 times before (winning at least half those starts)

·         Run once or twice in 2012

·         Never finished worse than 3rd (excluding racecourse debuts)

·         Had run in the past 35 days

·         Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)

·         Posted an RPR of 118+ last time

·         Previously on a group race

·         Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)

·         Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo

·         Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo

·         Won or placed in Dante or 2000 Guineas as 3yo

·         Priced 6/1 or below

 Good Luck all - the rest of the card on both days is well worth getting up for 

 Bob

Be wary today and for a while - Health Warning 270512

Our Top selection for the 2000gns race and the biggest disappointment was Trumpet Major, who was off the pace but in a good position most of the way. He found nil when asked for his effort and was found to be coughing post race.Make a note of that cos he is better than this.


It takes a while for coughing to come to light - temper your enthusiasm for Hannon Horses over the next few weeks to see if the yard is infected - its the same reminder i gave for Nichols yard where it had a devastating effect  and  I took a lot of scoffers money at Cheltenham--- Coughing for a horse takes yonks no matter how good the trainer jabs or voodoo


 Bob 

Look back at the Irish 2000 Guineas 260512

Not exactly the most straightforward of Classics and it may well take some time to find some context for it.  We Did really well to find the second at big prices and its worthy of review

There was an eerie sort of similarity to a year before when Roderic O´Connor won this after being beaten out of sight at Newmarket and that was the situation with POWER as well. The race was run somewhat differently with Joseph sitting some way off the pace set by his stablemate before eventually getting into gear and coming home to some effect. He´s not a horse that instantly quickens buthe builds up momentum and finishes to some effect, but a sound surface is essential and that´s something he didn´t get at Newmarket. One would imagine that a truly run mile on top of the ground will suit him best and he´s probably much more of a pure miler than Camelot. In truth, the 3-y-o division at this distance probably lacks a bit of strength in depth and there´s little reason why he shouldn´t be a force in races such as the St James Palace Stakes. 


Our Top selection for the race and the biggest disappointment was Trumpet Major, who was off the pace but in a good position most of the way. He found nil when asked for his effort and was found to be coughing post race.Make a note of that cos he is better than this

The supplementary entry given Foxtrot Romeo was fully justified and while his bare form doesn´t exactly look good in the context of a Classic, it´s obvious that he has improved hugely. He was at the head of the chasing group for most of the way and really sustained his effort strongly from two furlongs out. One would say he can get a little bit further but one would imagine he can still improve considering his one win before this was in a Hamilton maiden. He could well be an interesting horse for the remainder of the season. 


http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=CUR_2012_05_26_04_1515

Bob

Saturday 26th may 2012 Irish 2000 Guineas

Its a beautiful day down here in kent and been working on the pond rather than wondering what horse can get to the post faster than the rest - the form has settled down a tad and though not a great flat aficionado it usually attracts me to Epsom and the other big meetings - Roll on the Derby meeting where i hope to meet up with friends old and new for the annual alcoholic bash.

 The Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh today Saturday 26th May. In recent times Aidan O’Brien has proven the only trainer capable of keeping the prize in Ireland, winning 7 of the last 15 runnings, with the other 8 going back across the Irish Sea to Great Britain. Excluding Aidan O’Brien, Vincent O’Brien in 1988 is the only other Irish trainer to have won the race in the past 25 years.

Breeding

Irish bred: 7-14-59

American bred: 2-2-19

British bred: 1-2-18

French bred: 0-0-1

8 of 10 winners (last 5) were sired by a group 1 winner

7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse who had won over no further than 1 mile

Galileo progeny: 6291 (1-1-4) – 2 unplaced were priced 100/1 & 40/1.

Danehill Dancer progeny: 3183 (1-2-4) (Foxtrot Romeo)

10 of 10 winners were born before 9th April

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo

10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 8 career starts

10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days

8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F

8 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (other 2 placed in group company)

9 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in first 4 in a group 1 (6 won)

4 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (5 of 6 exceptions were having first course start)

Draw - even with a smallish field the draw has been significant on fast ground and there is a slight advantage being drawn low

2yo Races

National Stakes winner (Power): 1221 (2-2-4)

Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 11 (2-0-2)

Dewhurst winner (Parish Hall): 132 (1-2-3)

EBF Sussex Society Magazine Maiden Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 1 (1-0-1)

Alfred Nobel EBF 2yo Maiden winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)

Killavullan Stakes winner (Nephrite): 37422 (0-3-5)

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner (Wrote): 5 (0-0-1)

Champagne Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 6 (0-0-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Daddy Long Legs): 067 (0-0-3)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 1042

3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 611

3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 252

2 of 10 winners ran in the Gimcrack Stakes, finishing 16

2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersall Stakes, finishing 36

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 14

3yo Races

English 2000 Guineas winner: 1211 (3-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from 2000 Guineas to run in this: 1024211812 (5-2-10)

Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 033242164328512 (2-6-15)

Tetrarch Stakes winner (Takar): 224322 (0-5-6)

Craven Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 38 (0-1-2)

10 of 10 winners ran in English 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 1075411530

Trainers

10 of 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Great Britain

Aidan O’Brien (4-6-35) has won 4 of the last 10 however his runners have made up almost a third of the total to go to post in the race in the past 10 years.

British-trained runners (6-3-24) have won 6 of the past 10 runnings of this race.

Richard Hannon (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners. Canford Cliffs won it in 2010, his entry this year, Trumpet Major won same Goodwood maiden as a 2yo as 2005 winner, Dubawi.

Jim Bolger (0-4-7) and John Oxx (0-2-6) have each saddled multiple placed runners.

Price

10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting

Favourites (5-5-11) have won 5 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 1.20 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Sire won a group 1 over 6F to 8F

·         Born before 9th April

·         Had 4 to 8 career starts (1 or 2 runs in 2012)

·         Won first time out as a 2yo

·         Won a group or listed race

·         Finished in first 4 in a group 1

·         Finished in first 6 in Dewhurst, Coventry and/or Champagne Stakes as 2yo

·         Ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out

·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Britain

·         From first 4 in the betting

So On the Stats of previous winners you have to have Hannon on your side in my opinion and Trumpet Major has the form in the book its run in the English Guineas where it was only 3.5l behind Camelot -(The final time was just over five seconds slower than when Trumpet Major won the Craven over C&D. He´s not considered a soft ground horse (flopped on testing going in last year´s Solario), so it´s no surprise he was below form, and he probably did well to finish so close.) This was its second entry for today and the ground drying must make the final decision for this colt . 

Joker in the pack  Foxtrot Romeo----Brian Smart does not spend money on plane fares without thinking hard and he has said he will be looking for a big run today - it has already been taken quietly on the exchanges and you had to say its run at Newbury last time was pretty good and is crying out for a distance of ground - its breeding says he can get into the places where it is currently trading at 9.4 and could be a very big price 

 have fun today

 Bob

Great day yesterday for the Vfb – had fun on twitter chatting to Mark who also had some stunning bets.Onwards and upwards - we have money in our pockets and we aint gonna work no more.

 Its a shame that Facebook Timeform Wall has gone to pot and a wry comment from Dear old bill Clarke is well worth reprinting

Bill Clarke "Robert, it has gone to ratshit mate, some of the horses put up by the pundits are laughable......................... I would like to see some of their betfair accounts because if they are laying their selections they would be millionaires. No imput from the TFR page and the only e-mails they mention are those which make it sound like they are doing a great job and there cannot be many of them. Maybe they make the e-mails up, who knows but the content is 90% rubbish where as it used to be very very good. Quite a few pundits maybe joining the governments unemployment figures I think. Hope you are well and staying lucky."

Most of the day racing on first inspection looks very much like suck it and see with only one prize above £4grand  on the flat(5.15 kemp AW) then the races at Towcester giving better prize money. 

Only two leap out at me in the notebook and they will be my idea of punting at decent odds

3.15 Nottingham – Halstatt with graham Lee booked – the ground is forecast good –g/frm in places and the best handicapped horse in the race by at least 5lbs. Likes the track and good ground – beaten at Wolves caring 9-11 by Fade to Grey who was carrying 9-00 under Fallon and a very close call. Is at his best this time of year and a recommended bet today. Has been put up 2lbs for that last run but in Vfb  has seldom run below a mark of 69/70 

   

6.15 Towcester    down in trip to 2 miles is a worry but the Towcester hill (ski slope?) will be just up its street has got Maguire on board and thats a big plus according to my notebook   Hodgeson – “Ffoss Las 26s and down to 6s in running soft ground 230412 If Hodgson could only jump - Bugggggerrrrr looked so good money made up traded well - keep Hodgson on your side a 7yr old who still looks green and needs a Professional now”

 Good Luck - give me a hello on twitter

 Bob

exciting racing at Newbury and Newmarket 190512

we are in for  day of thrills and cant wait
 2.00 Newbury Dream Speed catches the Eye - First time out heavy gamble in the morning and sustained on course down to 6/1 not often see a first time newcomer run as well as this had the plus 1 draw 30709 some performance  bred from barathea is wanting this distance and ground first time out for yonks is the time to catch it


2.15 Newmarket Rugged Cross under Dane O'Neil - maybe needs the run but bred from Cape Cross and ready for the step up - going well at home and expected big run today  


2.30 Newbury The Confessor another candy horse owned by my Six Too Many partnership and expected today ran a better race from the wrong side at Newmarket last week (could be the wrong side today to)He's very progressive and has a lot attitude to racing, and ideally he wants a bit of cut on the turf.


2.45 Newmarket Democretes has the beating of Mince on these terms and ground on its second run for Hannon


 Jokers  horses with grand each way chances today :-

3.05 Newbury Poetic Lord has great place chances for Hannon needs this ground and crying out for this distance


3.25 Newmarket Silver Heels stepped back up to 7flngs has the beating of Saigon has a great each way shout 


 Good Luck today
 Bob

you are excited to see Frankel 190512

Ok its mortgage time on the line?  - this could be the most exciting Lockinge in years with two front runners in the line up. Nothing can beat Frankel on form - tactical race makes it as exciting as it comes and betfair 1-3 is a good bet - hes had a training problem but is back to his best says Sir Henry - is there a joker in the pack? not really the ground is g/soft with good ground in the straight - who would you back as the most tactical brain in the race it has to be Hughes but he has to jock off Jimmy Fortune - to get on Dubawi Gold - watch out for that I suppose but was never his first choice - 
It does not seem to matter if animals have had a run or not for this race which has always been about class - can the draw have an effect? lower is better that's for sure - 
only 6 runners place market -2 places 

2 (2) Dubawi Gold Jimmy Fortune	8.2 £41	8.4 £5	8.6 £69	8.8 £2	10.5 £20	16 £6
5 (3) Ransom Note Kieren Fallon	10 £20	11 £21	11.5 £11	12.5 £6	13 £4	14.5 £2
7 (4) Windsor Palace Seamie Heffernan	12 £10	12.5 £27	13 £35	14 £10	14.5 £2	15 £2
1 (5) Bullet Train Ian Mongan	26 £3	36 £6	38 £5	55 £7	150 £6

I will not be staking the mortgage but of the rest for the place Ransom Note is overpriced for its second on good ground to Twice Over last year at newmarket

 back Later for the rest of the cards

 Bob