The big handicap on Saturday 12th May is the Betfred Victoria Cup at Ascot, a class 2 heritage handicap run over 7 furlongs. It always attracts a big field and the draw can often make a big difference. In 2005 the race was run at Lingfield. The predicted going is soft and currently 24 still in.
The trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-11-97
5yo: 3-10-76
6yo: 1-4-36
7yo+: 0-5-39
9 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
4yos have won 6 of the last 10 runnings from 39% of the total runners.
Horses aged 6+ have managed just 1 win and 9 places from 75 runners (over 30% of total runners) in the past 10 years.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 2-16-98
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 7-10-84
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-4-66
7 of 10 winners carried 8-7 to 8-13 & they represented just 34% of total runners.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 98 or higher: 1-8-56
Horses rated 90 to 97: 6-20-124
Horses rated 89 or lower: 3-2-68
7 of the last 8 winners have been officially rated between 90 and 99. That range has also accounted for the 27 of the 32 places in the last 8 years.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run no more than twice that year
9 of 10 winners won over 7F or further
9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or higher last time
8 of 10 winners won a race worth 9K+
8 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps (2 exceptions post an RPR of 103+ on previous start)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 0440 (0-2-4) held up and led last furlong - was running for the second time in 7 days having run at Newmarket the last time on its first run back -drawn 7 with a 3lbs claimer
Bunbury Cup winner (Brae Hill): 70 (0-0-2)
Record of horses placed in previous Bunbury Cup: 01841 (2-1-5)
Excelent Guest finished 2nd to Brae Hill in the Bunbury Cup (Raced far side, prominent, not clear run and lost place over 1f out, rallied and ran on to lead that group well inside final furlong, not reach winner was possibly the best horse in the race on the day as he comfortably won from the group that raced down the ´wrong´ side, even though he was repeatedly stopped in his run.
First run tomorrow and has run well fresh with a very decent 2nd at ascot in the Buckingham Palace stakes 7f soft in June 2011was drawn 28 winner came from 29 has run and won with a layoff of 214 days is drawn high in 22 and as ever when the ground is soft at Ascot there is an advantage top draw soft ground. Has won off a mark of 90 in which he achieved a mark of around 98 and is off 95 tomorrow
totescoop6 Challenge Cup winner (Pastoral Player): 080 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Ayr Gold Cup, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's International Stakes, finishing 03
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Bunbury Cup, finishing 24
Trainers
Brian Meehan (1-1-3), Jim Goldie (1-1-5) and Dandy Nicholls (1-1-17) are the only 3 trainers with runners this year to have won it since 2002 and they trained the first 3 home last year.
Draw (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
Horses drawn 1 to 9: 4-11-81
Horses drawn 10 to 19: 3-13-90
Horses drawn 21 or higher: 2-3-59
in past 10 years, 7 of 12 places were filled by horses drawn 1 to 9.
Racing Tactics (ignoring 2005 race at Lingfield)
8 of 9 winners were held up in midfield or in rear
Only one winner of the race at Ascot since 2002 raced prominently throughout.
Price
No very strong trend on prices with 3 winning favourites and 5 winners priced 14/1 or bigger.
Favourites (3-3-12) have gained 3 wins in the past ten years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 4 or 5
· Carrying 8-7 to 8-13
· Officially rated 90 to 99
· Run no more than twice in 2012
· Ran a class 2 or higher last time out in past 40 days
· Won over 7F+
· Won a class 3 or higher worth 9K+
· Placed in 2011 Bunbury Cup
· Tends to be held up
· Trained Brian Meehan or Jim Goldie
All the signs are for Excelent Guest in this line up on trends George Marguson (has also got Imperiel Guest entered) has made no secret that the Victoria cup is this animals target from way back Ian Mongan is 9% win ratio for his rides at Ascot - its still too early to make a bet of any significance but the current 20s betfair is covered in my book
Bob
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