2000 Guineas 2012

The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket tomorrow Saturday 5th May when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years with 6 of the last 10 going to horses from across the Irish Sea. Last year Frankel ran out one of the most impressive ever winners of the race and many will expect another clear-cut win from this year’s favourite, Camelot. --Am not so sure any son of Montjeu has an extremely damning statistic to overcome in the 2000 Guineas. Montjeu has sired over 150 horses that have been officially rated 100 or higher. Yet, of all those talented horses, not a single one of them has won a Group race at a mile or shorter as a three-year-old or older in Europe. Indeed, just a handful of them have won at Listed level within that criteria, with one of those being, interestingly enough, Hurricane Fly. It is very rare to have a black-and-white statistic of such notability in the case of a well-established sire and the significance of such a stat shouldn't be underplayed in the case of Camelot. Sure it can win - am not saying that it cant -  its a horse race but the stats say it's got it all to do

Trends for the past 10 years:

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2011	Frankel	3	9-0	1/2F	Sir Henry Cecil	Tom Queally	133
2010	Makfi	3	9-0	33/1	M Delzangles	Christophe-Patrice Lemaire	123
2009	Sea The Stars	3	9-0	8/1	John M Oxx	M J Kinane	124
2008	Henrythenavigator	3	9-0	11/1	A P O'Brien	J Murtagh	123
2007	Cockney Rebel	3	9-0	25/1	G A Huffer	Olivier Peslier	124
2006	George Washington	3	9-0	6/4F	A P O'Brien	Kieren Fallon	127
2005	Footstepsinthesand	3	9-0	13/2	A P O'Brien	Kieren Fallon	118
2004	Haafhd	3	9-0	11/2	B W Hills	Richard Hills	127
2003	Refuse To Bend	3	9-0	9/2	D K Weld	P J Smullen	118
2002	Rock Of Gibraltar	3	9-0	9/1	A P O'Brien	J Murtagh	123

Breeding

Irish bred: 5-10-69

British bred: 4-7-62

American bred: 1-1-39

French bred: 0-2-4

German bred: 0-0-1

7 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (2 other sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile & other had won the English & Irish Derby). - Beware looking at Colts bred from Montjeu let it temper your betting is my advice

9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 8F (exception by Galileo)

10 of 10 winners were born before 6th April

Recent Form

8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 86+ on debut

8 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket, Curragh or Gowran Park

8 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (2 exceptions were unbeaten)

9 of 10 winners had won 2 or more races

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)

10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later

7 of 10 winners posted highest RPR last time (3 exceptions did so on penultimate start)

9 of 10 winners had won at group level (exception placed in a group 2)

6 of 10 winners were making seasonal debut (4 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial)

9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F

4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 5 were having first run here)

2yo Races

National Stakes winner (Power): 21051257 (2-2-8)

Dewhust winner (Parish Hall): 148221 (2-2-6)

Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 00013 (1-1-5)

Washington Singer Stakes winner (Fencing): 01 (1-0-2)

Gimcrack Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 187 (1-0-3)

Futurity Stakes winner (Dragon Pulse): 2482 (0-2-4)

Mill Reef Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 200 (0-1-3)

Champagne Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 020 (0-1-3)

Superlative Stakes winner (Red Duke): 3580 (0-1-4)

Criterium International winner (French Fifteen): 0 (0-0-1)

Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 060 (0-0-3)

Tattersalls Stakes winner (Crius): 0808 (0-0-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 233

3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 131

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the Railway Stakes

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the National Stakes

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 12

2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Coventry Stakes, finishing 61

3yo Trials

Greenham Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 306621 (1-2-6)

Craven Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 971600253 (1-2-9)

Leopardstown 2000 Guineas trial winner (Furner's Green): 14 (1-0-2)

Prix Djebel winner (French Fifteen): 8571 (1-0-4) won well - Towards rear, steady progress on outer from over 3f out, ridden to challenge over 2f out, led just over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, kept on and Peslier is formidible on his visits here

All 4 winners that had run that season won on their only start in one of the 4 races.

Interestingly, perhaps, only three of the last ten runnings have been won by the home team. Ireland has claimed six, and France one. Given the percentage of runners per nation, I’m tempted to lean heavily overseas when looking for the winner.

Now what about the merit of the recognised two year old trials, and especially the Racing Post Trophy?

Well, if you’re heavily involved in Camelot at a short price, look away now..! It is forty years since a Racing Post Trophy winner won the 2000 Guineas the following season, and that’s not a stat I like when considering 5/4 about last year’s winner of the Racing Post Trophy.

Further speed concerns are raised when you consider that since 2001, three Racing Post Trophy winners have gone on to win the Derby (High Chapparal, Motivator and Authorized), and one, Brian Boru, has gone on to win the St Leger!!!

A significant body of evidence points squarely towards Camelot being more of a middle distance horse, not least of which is his breeding. more of that in a second.

For those of you who are value hunters, you may also like to know that well beaten horses from the Racing Post Trophy have been known to run into the places in the 2000 Guineas at monster prices.

Dubawi Gold finished 9th in the RPT, and was then second in the Guineas last year at 33/1. Norse Dancer was only 7th in the RPT, but bagged third in the 2000 Guineas, at no less than 100/1 (!) in 2003. And Redback was 3rd in both races, his Guineas bronze coming at 25/1, in 2002.

Trumpet Major is interesting. I think his easy win in the Craven last month is the strongest trial form this year, outside of France at least, and albeit that he probably has less improvement than many of his rivals. Nevertheless, it’s hard not to like the course and distance success that day, when there was give in the ground and a headwind. Was impressive in winning the Craven over course and distance. This is clearly much tougher, but there will be no worries about trip, track or ground, and he has place prospects.He was giving his rivals three pounds there, but more materially perhaps was that he seems to have the kind of action that implies soft ground will be right up his street. True, he did finish last of four on his only run on soft, but I’m sure that was much more to do with him running – and winning – just nine days beforehand. Certainly, it’s hard to blame the ground for an eight and a half length form turnaround with Talwar, from a previous run on good to soft.

Power has yet to be outside the first two in five starts, including a win and two runners up finishes in Group 1′s. Whilst he’s more exposed than his stablemate, Camelot, he also brings a more reliable level of form to the table. However, there must be doubts about his ability to get the mile here, as he’s looked all out at seven furlongs and has shown plenty of speed earlier in his career.

I can see him running a big race in the Group 1 sprints this summer, notwithstanding a certain Black Caviar who might get in the way there!

Fencing was third in the Racing Post Trophy as mentioned, and that bare form wouldn’t give him a winning chance here. However, looking at the overall balance of his form – notably his win from Telwaar in a Listed race – he ought to run a nice race, without perhaps being good enough.

Talwar is a really interesting supplementary entry. It costs £40,000 to supplement a horse for this, which is the same amount a horse wins for finishing third here. Clearly, connections are hopeful of a podium finish.has an excellent chance of outrunning his market position – eleventh – and squeezing into the money. Not only did he win the same Lingfield Listed race that last year’s 2000 Guineas second did, but he also finished at the back of the Racing Post Trophy, as last year’s 2000 Guineas second did.His win in a Lingfield Listed race may not seem very good, until you consider that it was the race won by a certain Dubawi Gold last year, before that one ran closest to Frankel in the 2000 Guineas.

His form on soft ground is proven – he won an aforementioned Group 3 contest, beating Trumpet Major amongst others – and there’s an argument to suggest he was running when ‘over the top’ towards the end of last season.

At 40/1, he’s one rag I’d be happy enough to have a couple of shekels each way on, in a race where eight of 52 horses priced between 25/1 and 40/1 have been placed (and two have won) since 1997.

 Casper Netscher (Last year the brilliant Frankel became the first horse since Wollow in 1976 to win the Greenham and follow up in the 2000 Guineas. The form of this latest running looks relatively weak, and the time was 0.76 seconds slower than the Fred Darling, but  last year´s Gimcrack and Mill Reef winner, looked to win in spite of the testing ground.

Hermival, who for me is the one most likely to improve in the field. Mickael Delzangles does not bring them over for fun, and has run just twelve horses in the UK in the last seven years.

They included Makfi, 33/1 winner of this in 2010; Chineur, 7/1 winner of the Kings Stand Stakes in 2005; and Shankardeh, 6/1 second in last year’s Lillie Langtry Stakes.

(Hermival also carries the first string colours of the owner, whose other horse is the better fancied – in the betting at least – French Fifteen).

So watch the 2.30 to see where they go and make your choice - good luck


 Bob



Reading up on my own post on the big race and studying the animals on the forecast g/soft ground am not convinced the draw will be as significant today as the pace seems right across  the lineup. I can neither lay nor back Camelot  its two runs have been impressive and O'Brien has put his son up but drawn out in the 16 box of 18 runners he will have to move across or stay with the fast paced Power who will certainly tow him along but that one has raced against a field of this size and knows what it takes to win here - Jamie Moore takes the ride and if this as a match bet (will look) would take my chances on Power coming out on top. from that side of the field Peslier has French Fifteen and I cannot see why there are offers in the range of 14/1 for this animal.


 Of the rest you have to look at the low drawn Boomarang Bob who I did not mention in yesterdays post Last year´s Norfolk runner-up (reportedly picked up an injury after finishing second in a Chantilly Group 3 in July,) he ran a stonker over 7flngs at newbury   he was untested beyond 5f, but this was a fine reappearance. It´s hard to say he didn´t get the trip as he was entitled to need the run. John Hills said the colt will be aimed at a Guineas, and mentioned both Newmarket and France. this one could welll be the darkest horse in the race and run into the place market at massive odds 


 my three therefore are Power - French Fifteen and  Boomarang Bob


 good luck today 


Bob