1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket 6th May

The Qipco 1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket today Sunday, 6th May. Run over a mile for fillies only, it has thrown up a few surprise results in the past few years, with Ghanaati in 2009 winning at 20/1, and Blue Bunting at 16/1 last year. Jacqueline Quest at 66/1 was first past the post in 2010 but subsequently disqualified.

 Recent Form

8 of 10 winners won last time

6 of 10 winners were making seasonal debut (other 4 had run just once that season)

7 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (3 exceptions yet to run there)

9 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (exception not run in a class 1 race)

9 of 10 winners won or placed first time out as a 2yo (exception was unplaced in a group 3 on debut as a 2yo)

10 of 10 winners had won over 6F to 8F

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice as a 2yo

9 of 10 winners had won at least twice

7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on all career starts (3 exceptions only finished outside first 3 once)

The 10 winners had collectively run 46 times, finishing in first 3 in 43 of those 46 starts.

2yo Races

Cheveley Park Stakes winner (Lightning Pearl): 6051718 (2-0-7)

E B F Araafa Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Discourse): 1 (1-0-1)

May Hill winner (Lyric Of Light): 733250 (0-3-6)

Sweet Solera Stakes winner (Discourse): 4235 (0-2-4)

Silver Flash Stakes winner (Maybe): 2 (0-1-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Fillies Maiden winner (Maybe): 2 (0-1-1)

Phoenix Stakes winner (La Collina): 3 (0-1-1)

Moyglare Stud Stakes (Maybe): 507030 (0-1-6)

Fillies Mile winner (Lyric Of Light): 8440350 (0-1-7)

EBF "Makfi" Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Starscope/The Fugue): 40 (0-0-2)

Debutante Stakes winner (Maybe): 070 (0-0-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing 211

2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 2 French-trained ran in the Prix Robert Papin, finishing 11

Draw

yesterday 2000 gns the speed was with the higher numbers with the first four home only including 1 (drawn in 4) -- today's going is similar and the emphasis on a higher draw must be significant 

last year Blue Bunting (USA)  had not run for 183 days was drawn 16 had three runs winning two and  over a mile at Newmarket last run in October. was 100% in this class of race

Price

No strong trends on prices but favourites have done well recently, winning 3 of the last 5 and show a level stakes profit of 1.50 over past 10 years.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Bred outside the British Isles (ideally in USA)

·         Born before 01/04/2009

·         Run at least twice as a 2yo & won or placed on racecourse debut

·         Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)

·         Won last time out

·         Having first run of 2012 or won a 1000 Guineas Trial last time

·         Previously won a listed or group race

·         Won over 6F to 8F

·         Finished in first 2 in Prix Morny, Rockfel and/or Cheveley Park Stakes

·         French trained that finished in first 3 in Prix Imprudence

·         Trained by Jim Bolger

 Dettori mount Lyric Of light has the same profile as last year winner Blue Bunting and well drawn with 100%this class of race. Discourse same trainer  Barzalona ride is the biggest improver 

My Joker in the Lineup must be Gray Pearl who finished only third on the Rockfell and its all about wether they have got her to settle - if they have this huge Filly has real place chances at massive Odds - take a look at her going in the parade and the post 

 good luck today

 Bob