The Betfred Dante Stakes Thursday 17th is the highlight of York’s May meeting. Three of the last eight winners of the Dante went on to win the Epsom Derby so whatever wins this will likely move towards the top of the Derby market.
The trends for the past 10 years:
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-4-30
American bred: 2-1-10
British bred: 1-7-30
German bred: 0-2-3
French bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from just 40.5% of total runners
10 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (8 of 10 sires won a group 1 over 1M 2F+)
10 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 8.5 to 11.6
5 of last 7 winners were sired by Sadler's Wells or a son of Sadler's Wells
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
7 of 10 winners won last time out (or ran in a group race)
10 of 10 winners had won a race
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M+ (2 exceptions both trained by Aidan O'Brien had only won over 7F)
5 of 10 winners had run that season (other 5 had won on last run as 2yo)
5 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (3 of 5 exceptions won their maiden last time out, other 2 exceptions finished 3rd & 4th on only starts in group races)
10 of 10 winners made their debut over 7F or 1M
5 of 7 British-trained winners made their debut at Sandown or Newmarket
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Racing Post Trophy (Fencing): 161282 (2-2-6)
Dubai Duty Free Golf World Cup Conditions Stakes winner (Ektihaam): 32 (0-2-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 131
2 of 3 Aidan O'Brien winners were unplaced in the Prix La Force last time out
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-3-9) has done really well in the last 6 years. All 6 of his runners since 2006 have finished 1st or 2nd.
John Gosden (0-1-3) and Henry Cecil (0-1-4) have both managed to fill a place since 2002.
Price
No strong trends on prices but there has been no winner priced over 12/1 in the past 10 years and 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (3-4-10) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 year, giving a level stakes loss of 3.47.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish or USA bred
· By a group 1 winner over 1M 2F+
· Had 2 to 5 career starts
· Had first ever run over 7F or 1M (ideally at Newmarket or Sandown)
· Run this season and/or won last time out
· Won a group or listed race or won maiden last time out
· Won over 1M+
· Finished in first 3 in the Racing Post Trophy
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien
Only three of the entries today have won over 1m+ and this distance and they are Mandaean - Ernest Hemingway and Ektihaam by far the most compelling case based on trends goes to Ektihaam who won well on ground on the soft side at newbury last time in the Dubai Duty World cup Conditions Stakes (class 3) Soft 1m2f he had struggled in the Dewhurst when last seen, he had won Doncaster conditions event that Frankel had won the previous year. He´s done well physically from two to three and settled better than when last seen, travelling nicely throughout. he´s likely to stay at this trip. It Surprises me that Hanagan is not booked to ride today
The one that also makes some appeal is Fencing who was on the wrong side of the track in the 2000 Gns John Gosden said he handled the ground but got tired, having missed his prep. He´s a longer-term project than some of these.
Good luck today - remeber the formidible form of elliot at Perth and the great results that Lucinda Russel is getting there also!
Bob
No comments:
Post a Comment