The Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas takes place at the Curragh today Saturday 26th May. In recent times Aidan O’Brien has proven the only trainer capable of keeping the prize in Ireland, winning 7 of the last 15 runnings, with the other 8 going back across the Irish Sea to Great Britain. Excluding Aidan O’Brien, Vincent O’Brien in 1988 is the only other Irish trainer to have won the race in the past 25 years.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-14-59
American bred: 2-2-19
British bred: 1-2-18
French bred: 0-0-1
8 of 10 winners (last 5) were sired by a group 1 winner
7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse who had won over no further than 1 mile
Galileo progeny: 6291 (1-1-4) – 2 unplaced were priced 100/1 & 40/1.
Danehill Dancer progeny: 3183 (1-2-4) (Foxtrot Romeo)
10 of 10 winners were born before 9th April
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 8 career starts
10 of 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs that season
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
8 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (other 2 placed in group company)
9 of 10 winners (last 8) finished in first 4 in a group 1 (6 won)
4 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (5 of 6 exceptions were having first course start)
Draw - even with a smallish field the draw has been significant on fast ground and there is a slight advantage being drawn low
2yo Races
National Stakes winner (Power): 1221 (2-2-4)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 11 (2-0-2)
Dewhurst winner (Parish Hall): 132 (1-2-3)
EBF Sussex Society Magazine Maiden Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 1 (1-0-1)
Alfred Nobel EBF 2yo Maiden winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)
Killavullan Stakes winner (Nephrite): 37422 (0-3-5)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner (Wrote): 5 (0-0-1)
Champagne Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 6 (0-0-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Daddy Long Legs): 067 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 1042
3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 611
3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 252
2 of 10 winners ran in the Gimcrack Stakes, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersall Stakes, finishing 36
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 14
3yo Races
English 2000 Guineas winner: 1211 (3-1-4)
Highest placed finisher from 2000 Guineas to run in this: 1024211812 (5-2-10)
Record of horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the English 2000 Guineas: 033242164328512 (2-6-15)
Tetrarch Stakes winner (Takar): 224322 (0-5-6)
Craven Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 38 (0-1-2)
10 of 10 winners ran in English 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 1075411530
Trainers
10 of 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Great Britain
Aidan O’Brien (4-6-35) has won 4 of the last 10 however his runners have made up almost a third of the total to go to post in the race in the past 10 years.
British-trained runners (6-3-24) have won 6 of the past 10 runnings of this race.
Richard Hannon (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners. Canford Cliffs won it in 2010, his entry this year, Trumpet Major won same Goodwood maiden as a 2yo as 2005 winner, Dubawi.
Jim Bolger (0-4-7) and John Oxx (0-2-6) have each saddled multiple placed runners.
Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Favourites (5-5-11) have won 5 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 1.20 over past 10 years.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sire won a group 1 over 6F to 8F
· Born before 9th April
· Had 4 to 8 career starts (1 or 2 runs in 2012)
· Won first time out as a 2yo
· Won a group or listed race
· Finished in first 4 in a group 1
· Finished in first 6 in Dewhurst, Coventry and/or Champagne Stakes as 2yo
· Ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Britain
· From first 4 in the betting
So On the Stats of previous winners you have to have Hannon on your side in my opinion and Trumpet Major has the form in the book its run in the English Guineas where it was only 3.5l behind Camelot -(The final time was just over five seconds slower than when Trumpet Major won the Craven over C&D. He´s not considered a soft ground horse (flopped on testing going in last year´s Solario), so it´s no surprise he was below form, and he probably did well to finish so close.) This was its second entry for today and the ground drying must make the final decision for this colt .
Joker in the pack Foxtrot Romeo----Brian Smart does not spend money on plane fares without thinking hard and he has said he will be looking for a big run today - it has already been taken quietly on the exchanges and you had to say its run at Newbury last time was pretty good and is crying out for a distance of ground - its breeding says he can get into the places where it is currently trading at 9.4 and could be a very big price
have fun today
Bob
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