Dancing with light bumper 8.50 Ffoss Lass

Well will leave the naps table to an impossible selection DANCING WITH LIGHT  un raced mare bred from Fantastic Light  and so far un-raced -  (She went to a point meeting for her first run) where she was a temperamental mare dumping her jockey at the start - she is a well bred filly who Evans bought despite the antics,  which is a good thing, and has put up Dennis O'regan  of his two runners in this race. 
 currently 66/1 will blow the table out of the water and result in guys tearing their hair and form book smashing computers and singing Welsh under the table till nursey brings the meds  


Do I think she will win? of course I do though i must say some have a chance including most of the field - but  Mr Mccoy on High Storm might play a hand -


 This will be my last long shot (impossible winning nap for the month and for a while) - as an experiment it was hopeless fun and can say that backing my selections gave me a profit of £12.37 for the month and have learned a great deal.
off out to the bowls club for a pint of old and filthy tonight  and my darling long suffering wife is taking me out for my 72nd birthday lunch  tomorrow - then its off to Epsom  thursday  for the Derby weekend - will try and get the stats up for the Oaks and Derby before I go !


Bob

Adam Beschizza riding for Auntie ! and the naps table last day

One horse for his auntie tonight at Yarmouth Red Hearts - currently 11s on betfair is a decent lil filly on its showing at York where he rode her in a decent listed fillies stakes over 5flngs (unable to claim his allowance) but that race was worth 17k. The filly found things happening all too quickly for her that day but shaped with real promise  doing all her best work late. Tonight's 5.50 has nothing like that high quality line up and worth only £3.5G  he rode it at Brighton for its win over five and half furlong  and Julia Feilden´s filly is out of a 2-y-o winnerat this trip  She is entitled to improve again and ought to get another furlong this year.


There will be a ton of money going on Fort Hill in the 7.50 at Ffos lass  this is one dark horse who lags around the back and finishes like a train  is up to winning this with the same claimer on board  but look at the jockey line up and temper your bet - the majority of the field love the ground and distance its a tight handicap and even the outsider Mac Halen will improve under Wedge and gets into the race off a tender 9-07 with his allowance, made a couple of bad mistakes and was the first to crack over a trip sharper than ideal on his chase debut.  though His sole win in 15 runs  was over hurdles  he is effective on fast ground and will find more fluency and  improvement  stepped back up to this 3m under the top top claimer.

No distance races today and that means no great outsider to pinch the naps table with but that does not mean there is no interest as its one of the closest we have had in an age. 

Tipster Wins Runs Strike LSP POE JohnB 5 8 63% +18.83 +235% Khaled 4 8 50% +17.75 +234% GarethB 3  8 38% +11.62 +145% 

Good luck to my mucker john B its a hard one to call  with kahled having to make the bet  first and get something bigger than evens  I can see some active postings watching - anything from GarethB  who has to find in excess of 8/1 will really put the cat among the pigeons - see he has left it till the 7.25 Yarmouth and has to hope it will drift in the market to get his nap score as its already trading at 7 and 8s ! hes taking the gamble that it wins with either of the top 2 guys having to be early and losing or waiting for his race and then only having a handful of races to get a nap home in - good call from him

 Good luck

 Bob 

Need a Winner!

So here we go.....Bernisdale 3.15 Leicester

and its a £1700 seller not a race I'd normally even look at but....

6 runners, 2 never run before @ 3YO the rag whose best comment was "never dangerous" 19lb less than the second horse Lean Machine who has never run on grass and Jane's Legacy which doesn't appear to be much of a threat.......oh and Bernisdale is rated 70+ and likes the distance......

Watch this space!

Bob, this race is also a comment on your notes over the weekend.......non raced horses in sellers..and ppoor prize money...

where is that killer nap coming from? 30th may 2011

still playing the game of finding a really big priced winner and that looks forlorn!  and the guys at the top dont have the luxury of simply playing the form book looking for fun - they all too busy looking to see what each other napping and hoping an outsider will sluice in instead.

today the races are over 1m6f  as far as i am concerned and any headgear first time a plus.

first stop Redcar and  Smart Vilotta - bred for distance and first time trying 1m6f today with a visor on - Mrs Duffield and A Nichols do well when they team up and the market at 45 this morning and 37s now is interesting

3,30 Carlisle and a smart 1m4f handicap with Red Fama out for the first time this season attracts back in distance track will suite but seems to need more cut 29/1 currently -Rain came in time and drifted right out betfair won so well 1st (11) Red Fama 40-1

 2nd (5) Hong Kong Island 11-4 Fav

 3rd (3) Mcbirney 4-1

of the others -4.10 Redcar  Bikini Babe is well over priced at 49/1 much better filly than has so far achieved has run well above this sort of mark and has the makings of a gamble from this yard - has a decent turn of speed and has run well in much better contests including the oaks last year  under Mr Fallon when she was simply  baulked and squeezed when making a run - what else in this race compares? trouble is can she handle g/frm ground - she has the speed
 good luck today -
Bob

the blog is 1 year 2 days old!

Started with my first post  27th may 2010 and its been fun.
the complaint since starting seems to have all about how racing has gone into a steep nose dive quickly in that time - we have seen some super animals but also some dire races and prizes that are rubbish - leading to more trainer punts on no hoper's who you never see again.
 is it just me / dont think so many of our top riders and trainers are starting to bang on about how the game is changing.
Have looked at the Derby Meeting and apart from the premier races the cards both days is pretty grim - my money is more in my pocket than punted and only the bigger prized races attract me at all - will be putting up the trends on the Oaks and the derby later in week.
Rite of Passage first time out against Fame and Glory at Leopardstown today looks to be a thriller and am taking a chance on Elliots horse Dirar for the place market  should get bigger in running so am looking for a big place payout the way it won the Ebor  was spectacular and the pace looks as if it will be pretty fast today so am expecting him for a late charge 
 good luck  all
 Bob

  

Now its exciting in the naps table!

Well done John  some very canny Napping this month from you
Now who makes the first bet? £18.75  and you on £18 with the best POE - its gonna be a cliff hanger if he does not simply jump on your animals and a decent bet from GarethB will make it very tight at the top!

Bob, sorry too late back from having to buy my car back from Volvo......need some wins to day!!

2,05 Haydock - Activate and Ashbrittle f/cast Agree....Ashbrittle would have been my choice if not for the Motivator stats (which prove good again)

2.20 newmarket Dubai Queen and Cloud Illusions f/cast Quite like Maywood & Ektibaas

2.35 haydock – sweet Cecily has got her ground today Sandie is on Sweet Cecily

2.50 newmarket Buthelezi

3.05 haydock – Pink Symphony

3.25 Newmarket f/cast L’ami Louis and El Viento Agree with L'ami Lous

3.35 haydock High Standing Shakesperean

playing the game

Anyone who takes notice of the Vfb naps table will see am playing a strange game this month and its a game thats not doing much more than concentrating my mind on long priced runners in distance races - animals that have had a layoff in excess of 100 days - its a great way of learning how to use the form book but not very profitable for backing with real money!
today am looking at the 5.45 Newmarket and in particular the very big price of the Filly Sagiatore - this animal was with Dunlop last year and ran very consistently - now with Muir it had a layoff of 218 days having been sold out of dunlop yard for 120,000 gns. runs consistently in the 70s range has to find a couple of pounds on its run at wolverhampton in a class 4 and seems to be in the right race even though there has been no one of her sex winning it in the past and certainly no big price winners--- but she has chances and have taken her big place market odds on betfair


others I  I fancy today are as follows 

2,05 Haydock -  Activate and Ashbrittle f/cast

2.20 newmarket  Dubai Queen and Cloud Illusions f/cast

2.35 haydock – sweet Cecily has got her ground today

2.50 newmarket Buthelezi

3.05 haydock – Pink Symphony

3.25 Newmarket  f/cast L’ami Louis and El Viento

3.35 haydock High Standing 

 good luck guys

 Bob

Saturday 28th May

Motivator Progeny: 41% Strike rate thus far......50% >5/1<10/1

3 today

2.05 Haydock ACTIVATE Won...

4.05 Catterick MOTIRANI

5.45 Newmarket CAT O' NINE TAILS

Hayley Turner has just talked up Activate

Scoop6 Later

Scoop6 Saturday 21st

No entry from me today: Having been away a week (and not updating vfb) I am now no longer a registered user......!! :( so until Mark sorts it out I am formless!!

However Sandie has given the following:

1 Haydock 14:00 Cry Fury

2 Goodwood 14:15 Parisian Pyramid

3 Haydock 14:30 Polar Kite

4 Goodwood 14:45 Harlestone Times

5 Haydock 15:00 Overdose & Borderlescott (suprise suprise!!)

6 York 15:40 Waffle

Have fun!

John

Tinkle of the alarm clock?

JOCKEYS Paul Doe, Greg Fairley, Kirsty Milczarek, Jimmy Quinn and former rider Paul Fitzsimons, who is now a trainer, have been charged by the BHA with serious breaches of the rules of racing, including deliberately not riding a horse to obtain the best possible placing.

The charges focus on horses being laid to lose on betting exchanges in ten races that took place between January 17, 2009 and August 15, 2009.

Licensed owners Maurice Sines and James Crickmore have also been charged, as have six other unlicensed individuals Peter Gold, Nick Gold, Shaun Harris, David Kendrick, Darren May and Liam Vasey.

All 13 individuals have been charged with a breach of rule (A)41 in that it is alleged they conspired to commit a corrupt or fraudulent practice. The penalty guideline for that is six months to ten years disqualification, with an entry point of three years.

mainly all weather racing and its a sickener - my earlier posts already show my falling out of love with the new trends and falling off of the integrity of racing at the minnow tracks 

 OK these guys are not convicted and have not had their hearing - but they are names in the frame that you would never suspect to be there - such is life but its a bigger blow to racing than most people will think at this stage - its the boys at the top who have to get their acts together,poor prize money poor races and driven by the bookies rather than the sport itself. Each and every whiff of corruption will kill this medieval sport - like having a banquet next to the dunny it will surely kill the appetite - more racing poor prize money and corruption - what a formula  Less racing will not kill the sport -It is so intensive now it will soon pale  like having Christmas every day. ( just too horrible a thought to contemplate.)

 Bob

what's happening to racing?

Here is an extract from the Atr site that confirms what many of my friends and fellow punters have been saying over the last few months 
 The Racecourse Association have appealed to the Horsemen's Group to reconsider their tariff system after analysis of the first five months of the Flat season revealed a significant downgrading of races in comparison with last year.

Although there has been an overall increase of 3% in programmed races, over 100 have been subject to downgrading in class.

The RCA believe a major contributor to this decline is the prize-money tariffs published by the Horsemen's Group at the start of the year, with racecourses downgrading races in order to meet expected prize money levels.

Stephen Atkin, CEO of the RCA, said: "Although racecourses have significantly increased their own contribution to prize-money, the overall level will be lower than last year because of the £18 million (35%) cut in the Levy Board's support of prize money.

"One of the problems arising from the publication of the tariffs by the Horsemen's Group was that they have, inadvertently, led to a downgrading of the race programme as racecourses sought to meet as many of the tariffs as they could.

"At the outset we expressed our fears that the balance of the race programme would be damaged and these fears appear to have been borne out for races below Class One.

The fears have been that form is no longer the factor it has been and that racing is more of a lottery than it ever was. Trainers are using the new fixtures in an entirely different way to the past  - allowing horses to run more for the experience than the pitiful prize money - gambles are the thing as many animals can enter races now without the actual prize money being the factor. This is a horrible state of affairs - it does appeal to "Machine" age gambler in the betting shop but if that's what the sport is all about then Gawd help us--- look at the stats and you will see the lack of consistency that is creeping in. The punter who studies form/trainers is now at a bigger and bigger disadvantage as a whole new element (and am not including the ridiculous changing of the stall numbering for right handed tracks - regardless of the distance or heaven help us  races that dont have a bend to negotiate.)  

this is a grouse for sure and you can put it down to old men complaining of change but to my mind we are in the age little better than Dog racing - and you know how that is grinding to a halt

Bob   

Saturday 14th Scoop6

Could do with some of the luck of last week..........there are some very competitive handicaps today and no suprise if no one wins the Scoop6.

For what its worth this is what I am putting my £2 on......

2.00 Newb Drunken Sailor ticks a lot of boxes and teh yard is doing well 1

2.35 Newb Mac's Dream but am worried that it is his first time out this year 2

2.50 Newm Tactician a son of Motivator - remember offspring have 43% strike rate as 3yo.. 2

3.10 Newb Al Kazeem Charlton yard doing well and an improving horse 1

3.25 Newm Glencadam Gold picked this out from VFB stats......& from Cecil yard who seem to do nothing wrong at the moment 1

3.45 Newb Twice Over did I tell you I like Cecil's horses? Canford Cliffs doesn't do well first time out & can be very fresh.....Dick Turpin goes better the other way round a race track.....I admit I really have had difficulty working this one out, Canford Should win but a niggle somewhere says he won't and don't be suprised if there is an unexpected winner....woudn't it be wonderful if teh old warrior Balthazar's Gift did it......so why did I not back Canford?........but money in the sachel today......

The Totesport Dante Stakes 120511

The Totesport Dante Stakes on today on good ground at York. Three of the last seven winners of the Dante went on to win the Epsom Derby so whatever wins this will likely move to the top of the Derby market.

Breeding

Irish bred: 7-4-29 only one horse today 

Irish bred horses have won 7 of last 10 from just 39% of total runners

British bred: 2-8-36 nil today 

French bred: 0-0-1 nil today 

German bred: 0-1-2 (1 Ger bred today) 

American bred: 1-1-6 (4 of 6 runners are USA bred)

10 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner (8 of the 10 sires had won a group 1 over 1M 2F+)

10 of 10 winners were by a horse with a stamina index of 9.1 to 11.6

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a race

7 of 10 winners won last time out

8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M+ (last 2 winners both trained by Aidan O'Brien had only won over 7F)

5 of 10 winners had run that season (other 5 had won on their last run of the previous season)

6 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (2 of 4 exceptions won their maiden last time out, other 2 exceptions finished 3rd & 4th on only starts in group races)

6 of 7 British-trained winners made their debut at Sandown or Newmarket

Other Races

Racing Post Trophy winner: 11618 (3-0-5)

Highest placed finisher from RP Trophy (Seville): 116128 (3-1-6) and was drawn on the wrong side of the track!

Trainers

Michael Stoute (3-3-10) has won 3 of the last 10 renewals of this race and any runner from the Stoute yard must be respected.

Aidan O’Brien (3-2-8) has done really well in the last 5 years. He trained the winner in 2006, had no runner in 2007, trained the runner-up in 2008, trained the 1-2 in 2009 and saddled the winner again last year. 

Price

No strong trends on prices but there has been no winner priced over 12/1 in the past 10 years and 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting.

Favourites (4-3-10) have gained 4 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 0.22. 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Irish bred (Yaseer)

·         By a group 1 winner over 1M 2F+

·          Run this season 

·         Won a group or listed race or won maiden last time out

·         Won over 1M+

·         Finished in first 3 in the Racing Post Trophy

·         Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien

Yasseer is bred from Dansili and on breeding needs further than a mile - as the youngest horse of the three yr old's but you cannot help but be impressed by his staying on third at Newmarket when he met Native Khan 14/04/11.

  While the Dante will be tough for him he is in good form - Most of this family get a mile and a half standing on their heads -  Look at a horse like Mawatheeq, he is by Danzig from the same family as Yaseer. Danzig is not an influence for stamina yet Mawatheeq won the Cumberland Lodge Stakes (12 furlongs) by a couple of lengths. I think 10 furlongs to a mile and a half will be no problem for this horse. We are a long way from the Derby at this moment but he is in good shape and he is a nice horse from a very good family so let's see what happens. This additional 2flngs is what he's bred for.

 Good luck in the race and dont forget there is a Dettori animal today that I will leave you to find for yourself - the clue is simple - handicap and makes Mr Dettori sweat !

 Bob

Ten to Follow summer 20011

Hi Guys now the summer is here have put up a mixture of summer jumpers and Flat animals for my ten to follow -- will keep tabs on them and see how we go for profit loss at the end of the season

	Dinkum Diamond (IRE)
	Knight In Purple (GB)
	Nasri (GB)
	Rolling Hills (IRE)
	Sapphire Rouge (IRE)
	Seal Rock (GB)
	Siren's Song (IRE)
	The Confessor (GB)
	The Strawberry One (GB)
	Varkala (IRE) Bob

TODAYS NAP TOWCESTER

VERLAKA  have been waiting for this animal to get its distance and today it has at Towcester in the 6. o'clock.
 Have taken the price and waiting for more in running if it does as I expect and stays midfield. She is sired by Old Vic  and has decent ground credentials from its dam side Via Bob Back (her sire.)
was taken with her bumper run at Hereford behind Semi Colon and even more impressed with her run over 2miles on good ground behind my analyser horse There and Then.
that day she was still green but at the end of the race she picked up the bit and chased after the winner who is a strapping gelding with a beautiful jumping action. - but it was the way she finished that impressed me - Settled towards rear, headway 5th, ridden 2 out, 3rd and keeping on same pace when crossed by veering rival before last, went 2nd flat but not reach winner beating some half decent geldings in the bargain.


Today she only has her own sex to beat and to their credit some decent summer animals will be coming out of this race but I make her 6 pound clear of her rivals today  wish she did not have this far to travel but her staying pedigree says that one day she will get this distance hope its today - she will definitely shorten from the 14s I took  this morning - but with henderson and Mccoy on
BellaBoosh  and King and Thornton with Lucky Mix she will not shorten up below 9s IMO


result 1 The Strawberry One 11/4 

2 Sapphire Rouge 9/2 
3 Varkala 15/2  she looked the real deal all the way and was backed right in but the money came for the winner and she was pushed right out again opened 9/2 too far too fast the ground no doubt she still looked a bit green but a mare to follow over slightly shorter but she will get this distance this summer 

NR: Lucky Mix, Midnight Macarena    


 for a decent each way bet am taking in the 3.30 at Wolverhampton and siding with Kings Maiden who has been off the track for 388 days - won this 1m5f at the track 2009 and has been hurdling last run shes about right in the handicap and 16/1 or bigger  I like older horses who have a layoff before tackling distance races and always look for them in the Vfb and especially a Kings Theatre mare at that
 Result ------Bugger the fate of all place animals finished 4th -------- won by a 9yr old  such is racing 


 Good  luck today 


 Bob  

Whats happened to my mates? Naps table

Looks a good day to be in the naps table but dont seem to be getting any feedback from you guys.
 Am staying with the jumps and Knight in Purple to get its hat trick under Carberry today in the 3.40 at Haydock.
It has achieved more than the formidable Henderson/McCoy animal Remember Now who is priced up at 11/2 - was considered to be going to the Punchestown festival but his last win they finished in a bit of a heap certainly its progressive but not inspiring and has a fair bit to find today 


Cannot believe Knight In Purple is knocking around the 16/1 on betfair after its brilliant win here last time 2miles galloping away from Drill Sergeant  over the last 2 - just hands and heels till the last - then quickened up like a bloody good thing - it achieved a mark around 128 without breaking sweat and gets a mark of 129 today and in form of his life can achieve that under ideal conditions 
 this is my best bet today and have lumped on


as usual with well backed naps it got second for me - bugger went along the winner jumped to the front at just the right time but the winner swept passed him  
1 Eradicate 15/2 
2 Knight In Purple 12/1
3 Hunterview 25/1
4 Rio Gael 33/1 

Victoria Cup Ascot 070511

well this is a fun race for a napster to contemplate ! 
 lests stat off with the fact that they have reversed the draw and thats more confusing than you think - high numbers had the call in the last ten years - if you could get a 4/5 yr old drawn above 20 you were on the call - this year this means the low numbers have the call on percentage terms this year.
trends are not going to help a great deal as the changes in the stalls are for the first time and the race was run twice at lingfield on the last ten years - animals still run well charging up the centre of the track for the first 5flngs and the late ground up the stands side  
 in a 29 runner field  you have to seriously look at the first 10 boxes.
7 of 10 winners carried 8-7 to 8-13 and they represented just 34% of the total runners.
6 of the last 7 winners have been officially rated between 90 and 99.

10 of 10 winners had run no more than twice that year

9 of 10 winners won over 7F

8 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days

8 of 10 winners won a race worth 9K+(incl AW)

7 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps

 3 winning favourites and 6 winners priced 14/1 or bigger.

Favourites (3-4-12) have gained 3 wins in the past ten years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.

I'm going each way on a Dandy Nichols horse Nasri - drawn 4 who can be a blazing front runner  won well last time at the easier track muss over 7flngs in a 7k race good ground - (am hoping the rain will still come to give the ease it will be better for) - does not need to front run and based on its run at newmarket where it was held up and finished with a late charge it has some talent. Ran to a mark of 100 that day and has a decent lil 3lbs claimer and gets in off 97 today with that valuable 3lbs just to help get that down to 94. currently 26/1 betfair and 16/1 + with the bookies

Good luck today guys

Bob

 A really splendid result but a win would have been better  - All places filled by low drawn animals and Nasir put up a smashing effort to get placed at a big price  But Hawkeyethenoo is something special the way it won 
1 Hawkeyethenoo 15/2 
2 Manassas 25/1
3 Nasri 20/1
4 Brae Hill 9/1 

Rabobank Champion Hurdle. 6th May 2011

The big race on Punchestown’s Ladies Day, Friday 6th May, is the grade 1 Rabobank Champion Hurdle. This race has been won by some of the best Irish NH horses in the past 15 years with the likes of Istabraq, Moscow Flyer, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca and Hurricane Fly (last year) all tasting success in it. This year’s renewal could see the first meeting between last year’s Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular, and this year’s champion, Hurricane Fly.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

Horse aged 5 to 7: 9-8-53.

Horses aged 8+: 1-5-20 

Gender

Mares (0-1-5) have yet to win this race and the exceptional Quevega in 2009 became the first female to make the frame from 5 runners in the past decade.

Breeding 

No strong trends on breeding.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 hurdles starts (6 last time out)

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 6 hurdles races that season

7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 times over hurdles

9 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season or that season

9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle

9 of 10 winners were course winners Punchestown Festival Form

8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Punchestown Festival(the 2 exceptions had finished 3rd in the Champion Hurdle & 6th in grade 1 Bumper)

7 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a juvenile or novice hurdle at the Festival (1 exception was brought down 2 out when looking a likely winner of a novice hurdle, other 2 exceptions had not contested a novice hurdle at the Festival)

Defending Champion Hurdler (Hurricane Fly): 72222 (0-4-5)

2M Champ Nov Hurdle winner (Blackstairmountain): 31681 (2-0-5)

Other races

Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 122 (1-2-3)

Leopardstown Dec Festival Hurdle (Hurricane Fly): 1322 (1-1-4)

Previous year's Supreme Novices winner (Menorah): 13 (1-0-2)

Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): F33232 (0-2-6)

Christmas hurdle winner (Binocular): 62 (0-1-2)

5 of 10 winners ran in the December Festival Hurdle, finishing 17243

4 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, finishing 1323

3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out, finishing 4F1

3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing F22

3 of 10 winners ran in the Red Mills Hurdle, finishing 211

3 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana Hurdle, finishing 153

Trainers

Willie Mullins (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 3 thirds from 7 runners since 2001.

Nicky Henderson (1-1-4) has saddled Punjabi to win the race in 2008 and finish runner-up in 2009.

British trained runners (2-2-10) have a fair record, winning 2 of the last 10 and with 4 of their 10 runners making the frame. Both British-trained winners had won the grade 1 4yo hurdle at the previous year’s Festival.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter

9 of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting however no clear favourite has won this race in the past 10 years, with Solwhit winning as joint favourite in 2009 being the only successful market leader.

Favourites (1-6-11) have taken just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 8.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 5 to 7

·         Finished in the first 3 last time out in past 50 days

·         Run 3 to 6 times over hurdles this season

·         Contested a novice hurdle this season or last season

·         Won a grade 1 hurdle

·         Previous Festival winning form is crucial

·         Previously won a novice or juvenile hurdle at the Festival

·         Finished in first 3 in Red Mills Trial and/or Champion Hurdle

·         Ran in the December Festival Hurdle

·         Trained by Willie Mullins         

 Priced 6/1 or below (favourite has a poor record)

Menorah is only having its second run of the season and was behind Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham both he and Binocular finished behind Thousand Stars His freshness must have a real positive to beat hurricane today and Hobbs has an uncanny knack of getting horses to Punchestown

This  is a funny time of year when it comes to predicting the results of the major jumps races, .Dunquib was all the rage last year  HURRICANE FLY was viewed by many as the one to beat, and that proved to be the case, but only aftera tremendous battle with Solwhit. -  Hurricane Fly has that brilliance about him that relates to the all-time greats

View from the course

Punchestown manager Richie Galway said: "It did rain last night and we got about 2mm. The chase course is now yielding and we're watering the hurdles course with a view to good ground. 

Good luck today Guys Nursey Pam Birthday means am giving it a miss as we off to the coast and the Courtyard restaurant at Deal for a slap up meal and a walk along the beach before a joint party with Dawn - life is all balloons and brandy for the Taylor's