lests stat off with the fact that they have reversed the draw and thats more confusing than you think - high numbers had the call in the last ten years - if you could get a 4/5 yr old drawn above 20 you were on the call - this year this means the low numbers have the call on percentage terms this year.
trends are not going to help a great deal as the changes in the stalls are for the first time and the race was run twice at lingfield on the last ten years - animals still run well charging up the centre of the track for the first 5flngs and the late ground up the stands side
in a 29 runner field you have to seriously look at the first 10 boxes.
7 of 10 winners carried 8-7 to 8-13 and they represented just 34% of the total runners.
6 of the last 7 winners have been officially rated between 90 and 99.
10 of 10 winners had run no more than twice that year
9 of 10 winners won over 7F
8 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
8 of 10 winners won a race worth 9K+(incl AW)
7 of 10 winners won at class 3 or higher
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps
3 winning favourites and 6 winners priced 14/1 or bigger.
Favourites (3-4-12) have gained 3 wins in the past ten years, giving a level stakes profit of 2.75.
I'm going each way on a Dandy Nichols horse Nasri - drawn 4 who can be a blazing front runner won well last time at the easier track muss over 7flngs in a 7k race good ground - (am hoping the rain will still come to give the ease it will be better for) - does not need to front run and based on its run at newmarket where it was held up and finished with a late charge it has some talent. Ran to a mark of 100 that day and has a decent lil 3lbs claimer and gets in off 97 today with that valuable 3lbs just to help get that down to 94. currently 26/1 betfair and 16/1 + with the bookies
Good luck today guys
Bob
A really splendid result but a win would have been better - All places filled by low drawn animals and Nasir put up a smashing effort to get placed at a big price But Hawkeyethenoo is something special the way it won 1 Hawkeyethenoo 15/2
2 Manassas 25/1
3 Nasri 20/1
4 Brae Hill 9/1
No comments:
Post a Comment